Under the Monday Night Lights

[WildBillPicks7]

Info on tonight's game if you haven't studied or done this on your own.

Jets, 2-9 SU, now starting their original season opening starting QB of course, a team that beat Pittsburgh at home as opening +6 pt dogs, now are opening +4 1/2 pt dogs, line steamed up to +6 1/2, public money. Jets under MNF lights are: 7-3 as Home Dogs L10, and 7 of 19 games went UNDER the total. Jets are 1-3 L4 vs Miami and 1-5 at home. Jets are 5-0 off BB SU Losses. Jets face a poor rushing defense in Miami that allows 4.1 yds per carry but has held their own on pass defense. Jets score 16 ppg and allow 27 ppg overall on the year. Jets at home are 2-4 Su and score 19 and give up 25, hence that line at +6, one pt either side is pretty much spot on now after opening +4 1/2. Not much value.

Dolphins @ 6-5 SU, just got done losing a close one to Denver, they had no business getting the back door cover in that game, anyways, have an achilles heal, they give up rushing yards. They have lost at Buffalo in Wk2, @ Detroit and @ Denver, but won at Jax, Oak and Chicago. The latter 3 teams have poor rushing defenses. Jets have a decent run stop unit! Dolphins are 0-5 L5 SU on MNF, 2-5 as a RF on MNF and 12 of 21 have gone over the TOTAL in last 21 rd MNF games. The Dolphins are 0-7 away vs Div opp, Jets are a div opp. Dolphins averaging 26 ppg and allow 20 ppg overall on the year. Dolphins on the rd ave 23 and 23 and are 2-3 SU away this year.


If you really need action on this game tonight, best of luck to you!

The total is intriguing but again, right on the number at 41 or 41 1/2.

Last year Jets lost at home to Miami 23-3 as a 1 pt dog. The Jets will face the Dolphins the last week of the year again in Miami. Jets also lost in 2012 30-9 at home. So last 2 games a total of 26 & 39 pts were scored. The Jets are giving up 25 at home and Dolphins are scoring 23 on the rd, so a mean of 24 pts for Dolphins? Jets are scoring 19 at home and Dolphins giving up 23, so a mean of 21 pts? So score 24 Miami 21 Jets? One would think this one should go OVER, but why such a low total on MNF? Most of totals this year have gone over in Prime time, not last night and not in Dallas/Wash game (Romo hurt in game) and Arizona/SD, other than that most totals all went OVER on MNF in the first 12 weeks.

GL tonight! I have no dog in this fight and I'll just lounge around and work on my to do lists!!

:0003

 

[pirate fan]

Being a Bills fan, I watch these two teams all the time, but I agree, this is a tough one. If anything I am leaning on the Jets and under but I could be swayed by kickoff. GL on your list! :0074

 

[Bobmac]

Congrats on your big day on Sunday. Keep up the good work. You're one of the best on here, I always check your threads.:toast:

 

[WildBillPicks7]

Thnx Pirate Fan & BobMac!! I appreciate it!!

This is a lame game tonight, it smells either blowout or complete idiocrity like when Vinny Testicles faced the Phins some years ago and the Jets were down big time as I was drowning in my beer and they came back and won in last 6 minutes being a couple scores down!

Public all over the Phins moving the line 2 1/2 pts since open and adjustment for Geno Smith @ QB rather than Vick? I think Geno is worth more value than Vick - so big trap game potentially. Miami has Baltimore next, they are currently 3rd in AFCE behind Buff-a-row and off Mile High game, Jets off relocated game beatdown in Da-troyt, Ryan in dis-favor with team leaders on both sides of the ball, GM taking heat on billboards, the local press and social media. Bringing in Harvin hasn't helped the disfunction going on in the Jets locker room and on the field, so we'll see which Jet team shows up tonight!

GL! :0074

 

[yanno]

I'm sorry, but I just wrapped my head around that brilliant writeup by Scrappy and now understand it fully.

Unfortunately, I didn't comprehend a word of the gibberish you just posted. But thanks anyway. :0corn

P.S. I used to read your threads every day and they were always great! :0008

 

[TeeMo]

Thanks Wild Bill...... I think you're right on the money. I will be going with the Jets. I bet every home team this weekend and went 10-2.....not gonna back off on that now. Plus I love home dogs on MNF.

Best of luck to you the rest of the way.:0074

 

[WildBillPicks7]

Thnx Teemo & Yanno!!

Ya Yanno, I hope I didn't cornfazzle ya!! If you can make out what Sir Scrappy says in his post, then you probably can make heads or tails outta mine!! :mj07:

I basically don't like this game one bit, the line stinks, everyone knows that the Jets stink and the Phins are coming off the Broncs LW, tech play would say to play the trends of the two teams, but Phins last 2 times playing the Jets, held the Jets to less than a TD and both games went under a lot. But this is Monday Night Football and home dogs and divisional games can mess with ya minds, you know?

If someone had to stick a gun to my head on this one, I'd take Phins & Under in a teaser, but I'm not touching this one like getting on a plane to West Africa to see how Ebola grows, it tain't happening!!

GL on what ya'll play!! This is a 1/2 a 6 pack game for me, then studying all night for Big10/ACC hoops!!

:0074