Updated Playoff Scenarios for Week 17

[GM]

I read these things from NFL.com and it all seems like gibberish.... ie. Team X needs a win, or a win or a tie plus a win or a tie by Team Y, or a tie and a win or a tie by Team Y and a tie by Team Z... etc etc... until my head is spinning. So I've taken the latest summaries and reworded, re-ordered the teams, and formatted them a bit. I've also taken out some of the "tie" scenarios, since ties are so incredibly rare in the NFL, and only muddle up things.

So here is what I've edited it all down to... hopefully some people find it helpful.

(Note: Any team with an asterisk (*) is out of the playoffs for sure if they lose their own game.)

AFC

In already:

Pittsburgh - Has clinched 1st overall in the conference, homefield throughout the playoffs & a first round bye.

New England - Has clinched 2nd overall in the conference, including a first round bye.

Indianapolis - Has clinched 3rd overall in the conference; will play @ home in Week 1 of the playoffs vs the lower-ranked AFC wildcard team.

San Diego - Has clinched 4th overall in the conference; will play @ home in Week 1 of the playoffs vs the higher-ranked AFC wildcard team.

Fighting for wildcard berths (2 of these 5 teams will make the playoffs) :

NY Jets - Get in and clinch 5th overall in the AFC with a win or tie this weekend. Also get in if either Buffalo or Denver fail to win their games.

Denver - Get in with a win this weekend. Also in if Buffalo, Jacksonville and Baltimore ALL lose their games.

Buffalo* - To get in they need to win this weekend AND they need a loss by either the Jets or Denver.

Jacksonville* - To get in they need to win this weekend and get losses by BOTH Buffalo and Denver.

Baltimore* - To get in they need to win this weekend and get losses by ALL of Buffalo, Denver and Jacksonville.

==============================

NFC

In already:

Philadelphia - Has clinched 1st overall in the conference, homefield throughout the playoffs & a first round bye.

Atlanta - Has clinched 2nd overall in the conference, including a first round bye.

Green Bay - Has clinched 3rd overall in the conference; will play @ home in Week 1 of the playoffs vs the lower-ranked NFC wildcard team.

Seattle - Has clinched a playoff spot, but has NOT clinched their division title (which would give them 4th overall in the conference). To win the division they need a win this weekend, or a loss by St Louis.

Fighting for wildcard berths (2 of these 4 teams will make the playoffs) :

Minnesota - Get in with a win or tie this weekend. Also get in if either St Louis or Carolina fail to win their games.

St Louis* - Get in and clinch NFC West division title & 4th overall if they win and Seattle loses their game. Get in as a wildcard with a win AND at least one of the following:

• A Minnesota loss;
• A tie in the Carolina game

Carolina* - To get in they need to win this weekend AND they need at least one of the following to happen:

• A Minnesota loss;
• A St Louis loss;
• A Seattle win

New Orleans* - To get in they need to win this weekend AND they need at least one of the following scenarios to happen:

• A St Louis loss;
• Wins by both Seattle AND Minnesota

 

[GM]

The impact of this weekend's games

Meaningless Games:
The following games are completely meaningless, except for draft position (which unless you are at the very bottom of the league usually means very little to the players involved). Some of these teams may experiment a bit with some backup players. Some teams which have already locked up a playoff spot ~may~ rest key players, but different coaches do different things...it's not a given EVERY team that is IN will rest key players:

• Detroit @ Tennessee, 1pm - Neither team has anything to play for, except pride.
• Tampa Bay @ Arizona, 4:05pm - Same.
• Dallas @ NY Giants, 8:30pm - Same.
• Cleveland @ Houston, 1pm - Ditto, except maybe Cleveland tanks a bit more than usual to improve/assure high draft position(?).
• San Francisco @ New England, 1pm - Meaningless to San Fran, though a loss would lock up #1 spot in the draft if they haven't done so already (I'm not sure who would be #1 if SF and Cleveland tied). New England may possibly rest some players as they have nothing to gain in this game.
• Cincinnati @ Philadelphia, 1pm - Cinci playing for pride; Philly very likely to rest key players (as they did for most of their previous game).
• Green Bay @ Chicago, 1pm - Chicago playing for pride; Green Bay may possibly rest some players, nothing to be gained.
• Kansas City @ San Diego, 4:15pm - KC playing for pride; SD may possibly rest some players, nothing to be gained.

Games that are important to one team, but not to the other:

• Pittsburgh @ Buffalo, 1pm - Buffalo MUST win this game to have a chance; Pittsburgh may possibly rest some players, nothing to be gained.
• Miami @ Baltimore, 1pm - Baltimore MUST win this game and get a lot of help; Miami playing for pride and/or draft position.
• Minnesota @ Washington, 1pm - A win is not absolutely essential for Minny, but they will want it for sure as they need other help to get in if they don't win; Washington playing for pride.
• Indianapolis @ Denver, 4:15pm - Denver controls their own destiny, and also CANNOT already be IN or OUT when this game starts, so they will want the win here no matter what happens at 1pm. Indianapolis may possibly rest some players, nothing to be gained here.

Games that MAY be important to one team, depending on earlier results (and therefore should be approached with caution until earlier results are determined. Be ready for some wild line movements in the hours or minutes leading up to the game when other pertinent results become known...) :

• Atlanta @ Seattle, 4:05pm - Seattle is assured of a playoff spot regardless of what happened @ 1pm, but this game ~may~ decide whether the Hawks get a home game or not in the playoffs. If St Louis lost @ 1pm the Seahawks have locked up the NFC West and have nothing to play for. If St Louis won then Seattle needs to win to lock up the division and assure themselves of a home game. Atlanta may possibly rest some players, nothing to be gained here.
• Jacksonville @ Oakland, 4:15pm - It's not possible for Jacksonville to be IN yet when this game starts, but they will know they are OUT for sure if Buffalo won their game @ 1pm (and if Buffalo DID win, Jax may come out flat / not care about this game). Oakland is just playing for pride.

Games that are important to both teams:

• New Orleans @ Carolina, 1pm - The loser is OUT of the playoffs for sure. The winner has a chance to make it but needs more help.
• NY Jets @ St Louis, 1pm - Both teams are trying to lock up a playoff spot. St Louis MUST win this game (and get other help) to make the playoffs. The Jets are in a position where they could lose this game and still make it. If the Bills are getting drilled in their game, for example, you might see the Jets let up in the 2nd half. For St Louis, not only a shot to make the playoffs, but also a chance to host a game are on the line.

 

[GM]

Further on on the Atl/Sea game...

This is the only game of the day that features two teams that have both qualified for the playoffs already. While it's not possible for them to meet in the 1st round, they are potential opponents in round 2 or beyond. Neither team is going to want to show the other team their best stuff if they don't have to. If St Louis does lose at 1pm I think this game is best to be avoided, because you really don't know what these teams will pull.

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Great stuff GM.....

The effort is most appreciated mate. :thumb:

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Thanks for the work, GM

 

[bombercoops]

Handy info for capping this wekend GM! Thanks!

 

[lostinamerica]

Solid info and insights - as usual.

GL

 

[GM]

Odds

I worked these out on my own. There ~may~ be a mistake or two, but as closely as I can tell, they are accurate.

In the AFC, there are 5 key games (Pitt/Buf, NYJ/StL, Indy/Den, Mia/Balt & Jax/Oak). Excluding ties, there are 32 different combinations of results from these 5 games. Here are each team's odds for finishing positions, assuming all games are equal (ie. assuming every team has an equal chance at winning)...

Odds of finishing 5th in the AFC
NY Jets : 62.5%
Denver : 25.0%
Buffalo : 12.5%
Jacksonville : 0.0%
Baltimore : 0.0%

Odds of finishing 6th in the AFC
NY Jets : 25.0%
Denver : 31.25%
Buffalo : 25.0%
Jacksonville : 12.5%
Baltimore : 6.25%

Odds of making the playoffs in the AFC
NY Jets : 87.5%
Denver : 56.25%
Buffalo : 37.5%
Jacksonville : 12.5%
Baltimore : 6.25%

(adds up to 200% because 2 teams will make the playoffs)

========================================

In the NFC, there are 4 key games (Minn/Wash, NYJ/StL, NO/Car & Atl/Sea). Excluding ties, there are 16 different combinations of results from these 4 games. Here are each team's odds for finishing positions, assuming all games are equal (ie. assuming every team has an equal chance at winning)...

Odds of finishing 4th in the NFC
Seattle : 75.0%
Minnesota : 0.0%
St Louis : 25.0%
Carolina : 0.0%
New Orleans : 0.0%

Odds of finishing 5th in the NFC
Seattle : 25.0%
Minnesota : 50.0%
St Louis : 6.25%
Carolina : 18.75%
New Orleans : 0.0%

Odds of finishing 6th in the NFC
Seattle : 0.0%
Minnesota : 37.5%
St Louis : 6.25%
Carolina : 25.0%
New Orleans : 31.25%

Odds of making the playoffs in the NFC
Seattle : 100.0%
Minnesota : 87.5%
St Louis : 37.5%
Carolina : 43.75%
New Orleans : 31.25%

(adds up to 300% because 3 teams will make the playoffs)

 

[SlySi]

Wow. MUCH easier to read!

I was so lost on nfl.com

Thanks!

 

[chuckdman]

Awesome info! Thanks as usual. Good read!

 

[SALTY DOG]

Thanks GM, have been away from computer for
a week and was looking forward to info on week
17 and playoffs and pretty much knew before I
logged on you would have it...GL the next few
weeks...great info... :clap:

 

[beertime]

AWESOME POST!!!

:clap:

 

[AR182]

gm,

thanks for the info...very helpful.

here is something that i just read & some might find it interesting:

In the final two weeks of the regular season,

teams that are in a must win (or else be

eliminated from the playoff race) are just 37-67-4

ATS against teams that are mathematically

eliminated from the playoffs

 

[MrChristo]

Good post AR....(You too GM! )....

...I was going to post something similar earlier, but didn't have any numbers...was more of a memory thing!

It always seems that teams in must win situations lose SU against teams who couldn't care less.

Definately don't bet on teams just because they need to win.

Unless a team is resting critical starters (ie. Philli last week) it's business as usual for everyone that runs onto the field this week....There's no such thing as 'extra' motivation. (as shown by those numbers).

 

[kickserv]

great info GM!!!!!!

Thanks

 

[GM]

Thanks guys!

I really want to see the Bills and Panthers make it. Two hot teams would make the playoffs a whole lot more interesting. Unforunately, I don't see either the Jets or Broncos losing today... which would doom Buffalo.

 

[Blackman]

gm,

thanks for the info...very helpful.

here is something that i just read & some might find it interesting:

In the final two weeks of the regular season,

teams that are in a must win (or else be

eliminated from the playoff race) are just 37-67-4

ATS against teams that are mathematically

eliminated from the playoffs

Good stuff -- I have learned in the past, do not understimate the teams in the spoiler role this week. Sometimes playing for pride is more than enough to get them to show up.

 

[GM]

Exactly. Teams are in a "must-win" situation this time of year because they have not gotten the job done already. So, most of these teams are accustomed to failing. Just because they "must-win" does not mean they will...quite often they won't!

In the "nothing" games (both teams out of it), the usual rule of thumb for me is to avoid the road team. Either go with the home squad or nothing at all. However, when the road team is playing spoiler against a home team with something along the line, funny things happen...

 

[Blackman]

Good rule of thumb GM I agree. Home or nothing this weekend if the game is meaningless postseason wise.

Also you are dead on, these teams that are in a must win situation this late in the game are there because they couldn't take care of business the first 16 weeks, so beware. Just because they have a lot on the line to play for doesn't mean they'll step up and take it.

This is a very tough weak to cap, almost like a preseason card in some respects, so best of luck guys and tread lightly.

 

[slick willy 17]

You are a true asset to this site. Great info man. Saved me lots of time. Happy New Year and thanks for everything again.