USC over Texas (detailed analysis)
- Thread starter Scott4USC
- Start date
I really don't see how anyone thinks TEXAS can win tonight...I dont even think they cover?
No doubt they have had a Great year but cmon.....How are they going to stop Bush and Leinart?
USC has so much more firepower and this most likely will be a shootout which USC doesnt lose.
If USC Defense shows up tonight this will be a blowout...JMHO.
No doubt they have had a Great year but cmon.....How are they going to stop Bush and Leinart?
USC has so much more firepower and this most likely will be a shootout which USC doesnt lose.
If USC Defense shows up tonight this will be a blowout...JMHO.
A few & interesting stats pulled from ESPN.COM
Record When Scoring... (Since 2001)
When Scoring 20+
USC 53-5
Texas 53-5
30+
USC 43-1
Texas 43-2
40+
USC 33-0
Texas 37-0
50+
USC 12-0
Texas 18-0
Conversely when scroing less than:
20-
USC 1-4
Texas 2-3
30-
USC 11-8
Texas 12-6
40-
USC 21-9
Texas 18-8
50-
USC 42-9
Texas 37-8
Those stats are extremely close & almost identical! Never would have thought that off the top of my head.
Here is what I am hoping is the stat the comes into play tonight as it would APPEAR Texas would have the advantage in a close game
IN CLOSE GAMES (Under 7 pts)
USC 6-7 :scared
Texas 10-2 :clap:
Another Did you know type of stat:
That VY only threw ONE less TD the ML despite throwing 106 less passes.
Record When Scoring... (Since 2001)
When Scoring 20+
USC 53-5
Texas 53-5
30+
USC 43-1
Texas 43-2
40+
USC 33-0
Texas 37-0
50+
USC 12-0
Texas 18-0
Conversely when scroing less than:
20-
USC 1-4
Texas 2-3
30-
USC 11-8
Texas 12-6
40-
USC 21-9
Texas 18-8
50-
USC 42-9
Texas 37-8
Those stats are extremely close & almost identical! Never would have thought that off the top of my head.
Here is what I am hoping is the stat the comes into play tonight as it would APPEAR Texas would have the advantage in a close game
IN CLOSE GAMES (Under 7 pts)
USC 6-7 :scared
Texas 10-2 :clap:
Another Did you know type of stat:
That VY only threw ONE less TD the ML despite throwing 106 less passes.
The Judge said:
Jugde,
I must testify here under oath that I did hear those comments come from WC. He stated what a problem the 2 backs could be, but then he did say that as they wrapped up the segment, to me it sounded as if they cut the rest of the statement, but WC did say that. Caught me a little off guard as well.
ThrowinPicks said:
I agree. Texas shouldn't have either but Hamby dropped the ball. OSU was a very talented and experienced football team this year and playing in the shoe at night is much tougher than going to ND IMO.
Just a couple quick points...
Has anyone noticed the comparisons of USC 2005 to the great bowl teams in the past on ESPN lately - is that not incentive for Texas to at least play their hearts out.
Also - too many public factors too bet on SC - Not one but two heisman winners... they have to win right ????
Also trust me here... Vince has a comfortable feeling at the Rose bowl from last years game... it will continue tonight..
Has anyone noticed the comparisons of USC 2005 to the great bowl teams in the past on ESPN lately - is that not incentive for Texas to at least play their hearts out.
Also - too many public factors too bet on SC - Not one but two heisman winners... they have to win right ????
Also trust me here... Vince has a comfortable feeling at the Rose bowl from last years game... it will continue tonight..
Scott4USC said:
Agree that USC has somewhat of an advantage due to practicing at home. However, this advantage would be much greater if Texas had not played in the Rose Bowl last year. They will be familiar and confident in their surroundings which is important IMO.
CWood97 said:
No I do not think the USC DL will get consistent pressure on Young. But they will cause havic. USC now has a complete 2-deep at LB's. IMO the 2nd string MLB Mauluga is the best defensive player on USC. The guy will be the #1 LB in country next year as soph. WATCH OUT FOR THIS KID! Unbelievable. Only reason he isn't starting is because he will make a mistake occasionally on assignments and Carroll won't tolerate mistakes. MLB is field general in Carrolls D.
USC LB's will rotate and be fresh all game. Rivers (starter) and Mauluga can run with Young and I think USC will be sending LB's all game long (from different spots) with the DL playing assignment football. That is what they were stressing in practice with DL coach constantly telling them keep your assignments in check. USC is very good at DE and average/above average at DT. Young IMO has not seen a D this fast with team speed. USC DT's are a lot faster than normal DT's.
****when Young scrambles and/or runs he carries the ball away from his body. USC D is prob. the best D in the country @ knowing how to strip a ball. I will be SHOCKED if USC doesn't strip the ball away from Young at least 1 time in this game. I also think Texas RB's will cough the ball up as well.
I am telling you USC LB's can run Young down when scrambling in backfield. Most importantly, USC has the discipline to play assignment football and USC knows they do not have to shut out Texas to win. With this in mind, USC will give Texas underneath stuff, PUNISH you every time you touch the ball (free shots and USC hits hard), and try and force turnovers or let opponent make mistake. Whenenver Texas gets 3rd and long, USC will bring a unique blitz package Texas never seen on film.
Lastly, VY is used to scrambling at will against inferior DL and then chucking the ball deep (floating the ball) to his WR's. USC has 2 safety's that are I think 6.3 and 6.2 and both well over 200 pounds. BUT FAST! So chucking/floating the ball (which VY has done all year) isn't going to get it done against USC. Not getting the Heisman, wanting to be high NFL draft pick, weight of Texas on his shoulders, used to getting away with it, Young will force plays and do things he is used too. I don't think it will work with success. Texas might get a BIG TD on Young scramble and chuck. But then next series might get INT. It only takes 1-2 turnovers to get blown out by USC.
Trojan offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin said,
"You've just got to win matchups. Dominique Byrd has got to beat his guy. Reggie has got to beat Huff, or whoever is on him. The game is going to come down to one-on-one matchups."
Hey Scott, isnt that exactly what Texas want to happen? That doesnt seem like a team trying to out scheme somebody. It sounds like USC wants to test UT 1 on 1 & see what happens.
Interesting.
"You've just got to win matchups. Dominique Byrd has got to beat his guy. Reggie has got to beat Huff, or whoever is on him. The game is going to come down to one-on-one matchups."
Hey Scott, isnt that exactly what Texas want to happen? That doesnt seem like a team trying to out scheme somebody. It sounds like USC wants to test UT 1 on 1 & see what happens.
Interesting.
All this talk about the USC back 4, I think we are forgetting about the back 4 of Texas, you know the one with the Jim Thorpe award winner as the best DB in the country, the one with mulitple NFL 1st round draft picks in it.
Link
From ESPN.com:
LOS ANGELES -- They are among the tenets that defensive coaches hand down from generation to generation. Corners cover better than they tackle. Safeties tackle better than they cover. Those are the rules that secondary coaches use to find a lineup, and those are the rules that offensive coordinators live by to find mismatches.
And those are the rules that mean nothing to the Texas Longhorns. They have four positions in the secondary, and five players who can fill any of them. There's a reason that senior strong safety Michael Huff won the Jim Thorpe Award, given to the nation's best defensive back.
Michael Huff would relish the opportunity to match up with Reggie Bush."I can play everywhere," Huff said. "I can line up deep. I can be up at corner, and [cover] the slot. I have been everywhere. I used to like coverage a lot better. This year, I got my first two blitzes. I wish I could blitz every game."
Huff is the leader. Junior free safety Michael Griffin, a former running back, combines the range to play center field with the biggest hammer on the defense. His teammates talk about his greatest hits as if they were on a CD.
Senior Cedric Griffin (no relation) mans one corner, but regularly fills in for Huff. Junior Tarell Brown, a physical corner and All-American trash talker, covers the other side. The fleet junior Aaron Ross is the nickel back.
Together, they are the biggest reason the Longhorns finished the regular season second in the nation in pass efficiency defense (91.34 rating) and fifth in pass defense (155.9 yards per game). The former statistic is notable because Texas intercepted only 10 passes this season, a whopping 12 fewer than USC.
"Maybe they throw more when they're behind out there," Texas coach Mack Brown said. "When we're ahead 60-0, they don't throw much."
It doesn't seem to matter. This secondary has been effective at the task it will undertake in the Rose Bowl Game (Presented by Citi) Wednesday night (ABC, 8 p.m. ET) -- stopping the big plays that have led to so many USC blowouts.
"We match them up in man coverage," Brown said. "They're not out of position. Then you can match them up outside. You can put nine inside. That helps you stop the run."
Their interchangeability also blunts one of USC's sharpest weapons: The ability to take tailback Reggie Bush, line him up wide and take advantage of a bigger, slower defender. Instead, Trojan offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin said, "You've just got to win matchups. [Tight end] Dominique Byrd has got to beat his guy. Reggie has got to beat Huff, or whoever is on him. The game is going to come down to one-on-one matchups."
Huff has made it clear that he relishes the opportunity to take on the Heisman Trophy winner, should the Longhorn coaches give it to him.
"Oh, yeah, I'll be on him," Huff said. "If I'm the best, I want to play against their best player. If I play well against their best player, then the team will do well."
Huff has the physical tools -- at 6-1 and 205 pounds with 4.34 speed -- that a defensive back needs to deal with Bush. But the Texas coaches love Huff because his brain twitches faster than his muscles.
"What separates him from a lot of the good ones, and why he's a great one, is he's got the mental part of the game as well as anyone I've ever been around," defensive coordinator Gene Chizik said Sunday. "He does a great job of making sure everybody is in line."
Including, it turns out, Chizik himself. Against Texas A&M, Chizik sent in a nickel coverage.
"We lined up," Huff said. "I saw we didn't have the linebacker. I did what the linebacker did. I got a sack, and forced a fumble."
Chizik sent in the wrong formation? Huff nodded. "I just blitzed," he said. "I didn't think about it."
Why not call timeout and get it straight? Huff looked as if he had been asked to turn down a steak dinner.
"I would never call timeout," he said. "I wouldn't have been able to blitz."
Huff, like any confident defensive back, doesn't like to play zone. He said the Longhorns have played more man this season under Chizik, in his first season at Texas. Chizik preaches an aggressive play, yet he confirmed Huff's estimation that they play zone roughly 60 percent of the time. That's aggressive?
"Any time you play zone," Chizik said, "you have a lot more eyes on the ball. When the football breaks the line of scrimmage, you should have a lot of people coming to the ball. You have better angles."
Fortunately for the Longhorns, whether in zone or man, Mike Griffin defines aggressive defense. He is the enforcer. The Texas receivers know what Griffin can do.
"My freshman year," sophomore Limas Sweed said, "I ran across the middle on a slant route, and I didn't see him. He hit me dead center in my chest. I stayed on the ground for five minutes, just holding my chest. I haven't gotten hit that hard in a game yet."
Sophomore wideout Billy Pittman pointed to the left side of his torso.
"I was running over the middle," Pittman said. "He hit me in the ribs. That's the hardest I've been hit all season. He'll knock your head off."
Even Huff has learned the hard way what Griffin can do. "I definitely get out of his way," Huff said. "He used to be a little skinny guy who didn't want to hit anybody. Now he's hitting everybody."
Griffin started out as a running back but moved over to defense as a freshman. Asked what he recalled about his first hit as a corner, he said, "I don't know. I had my eyes closed."
Griffin warmed to it quickly, perhaps as a way to distinguish himself. "Huff is good at covering," Griffin said. "I may as well be good at something else."
With these five backs, the secondary is good at just about everything, save interceptions.
Link
From ESPN.com:
LOS ANGELES -- They are among the tenets that defensive coaches hand down from generation to generation. Corners cover better than they tackle. Safeties tackle better than they cover. Those are the rules that secondary coaches use to find a lineup, and those are the rules that offensive coordinators live by to find mismatches.
And those are the rules that mean nothing to the Texas Longhorns. They have four positions in the secondary, and five players who can fill any of them. There's a reason that senior strong safety Michael Huff won the Jim Thorpe Award, given to the nation's best defensive back.
Michael Huff would relish the opportunity to match up with Reggie Bush."I can play everywhere," Huff said. "I can line up deep. I can be up at corner, and [cover] the slot. I have been everywhere. I used to like coverage a lot better. This year, I got my first two blitzes. I wish I could blitz every game."
Huff is the leader. Junior free safety Michael Griffin, a former running back, combines the range to play center field with the biggest hammer on the defense. His teammates talk about his greatest hits as if they were on a CD.
Senior Cedric Griffin (no relation) mans one corner, but regularly fills in for Huff. Junior Tarell Brown, a physical corner and All-American trash talker, covers the other side. The fleet junior Aaron Ross is the nickel back.
Together, they are the biggest reason the Longhorns finished the regular season second in the nation in pass efficiency defense (91.34 rating) and fifth in pass defense (155.9 yards per game). The former statistic is notable because Texas intercepted only 10 passes this season, a whopping 12 fewer than USC.
"Maybe they throw more when they're behind out there," Texas coach Mack Brown said. "When we're ahead 60-0, they don't throw much."
It doesn't seem to matter. This secondary has been effective at the task it will undertake in the Rose Bowl Game (Presented by Citi) Wednesday night (ABC, 8 p.m. ET) -- stopping the big plays that have led to so many USC blowouts.
"We match them up in man coverage," Brown said. "They're not out of position. Then you can match them up outside. You can put nine inside. That helps you stop the run."
Their interchangeability also blunts one of USC's sharpest weapons: The ability to take tailback Reggie Bush, line him up wide and take advantage of a bigger, slower defender. Instead, Trojan offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin said, "You've just got to win matchups. [Tight end] Dominique Byrd has got to beat his guy. Reggie has got to beat Huff, or whoever is on him. The game is going to come down to one-on-one matchups."
Huff has made it clear that he relishes the opportunity to take on the Heisman Trophy winner, should the Longhorn coaches give it to him.
"Oh, yeah, I'll be on him," Huff said. "If I'm the best, I want to play against their best player. If I play well against their best player, then the team will do well."
Huff has the physical tools -- at 6-1 and 205 pounds with 4.34 speed -- that a defensive back needs to deal with Bush. But the Texas coaches love Huff because his brain twitches faster than his muscles.
"What separates him from a lot of the good ones, and why he's a great one, is he's got the mental part of the game as well as anyone I've ever been around," defensive coordinator Gene Chizik said Sunday. "He does a great job of making sure everybody is in line."
Including, it turns out, Chizik himself. Against Texas A&M, Chizik sent in a nickel coverage.
"We lined up," Huff said. "I saw we didn't have the linebacker. I did what the linebacker did. I got a sack, and forced a fumble."
Chizik sent in the wrong formation? Huff nodded. "I just blitzed," he said. "I didn't think about it."
Why not call timeout and get it straight? Huff looked as if he had been asked to turn down a steak dinner.
"I would never call timeout," he said. "I wouldn't have been able to blitz."
Huff, like any confident defensive back, doesn't like to play zone. He said the Longhorns have played more man this season under Chizik, in his first season at Texas. Chizik preaches an aggressive play, yet he confirmed Huff's estimation that they play zone roughly 60 percent of the time. That's aggressive?
"Any time you play zone," Chizik said, "you have a lot more eyes on the ball. When the football breaks the line of scrimmage, you should have a lot of people coming to the ball. You have better angles."
Fortunately for the Longhorns, whether in zone or man, Mike Griffin defines aggressive defense. He is the enforcer. The Texas receivers know what Griffin can do.
"My freshman year," sophomore Limas Sweed said, "I ran across the middle on a slant route, and I didn't see him. He hit me dead center in my chest. I stayed on the ground for five minutes, just holding my chest. I haven't gotten hit that hard in a game yet."
Sophomore wideout Billy Pittman pointed to the left side of his torso.
"I was running over the middle," Pittman said. "He hit me in the ribs. That's the hardest I've been hit all season. He'll knock your head off."
Even Huff has learned the hard way what Griffin can do. "I definitely get out of his way," Huff said. "He used to be a little skinny guy who didn't want to hit anybody. Now he's hitting everybody."
Griffin started out as a running back but moved over to defense as a freshman. Asked what he recalled about his first hit as a corner, he said, "I don't know. I had my eyes closed."
Griffin warmed to it quickly, perhaps as a way to distinguish himself. "Huff is good at covering," Griffin said. "I may as well be good at something else."
With these five backs, the secondary is good at just about everything, save interceptions.
"SC couldn't have won at the horseshoe"
Now I give texas all the credit in the world for doing that but c'mon people Sc would have rolledby at least 2 tds in that situation. It might be different now because OSU is playing better (still think Sc would win by 10) but at the time OSU was having problems at QB. Smith off suspension was not playing well and of course Zwick was no answer. Also the comment that the Show was harder to play at than South Bend. USC-ND one of the best rivalries of all college football, green jersey, new coahc, undeafted streak on the line, etc. not saying it was tougher than the Shoe but it was not less
Now I give texas all the credit in the world for doing that but c'mon people Sc would have rolledby at least 2 tds in that situation. It might be different now because OSU is playing better (still think Sc would win by 10) but at the time OSU was having problems at QB. Smith off suspension was not playing well and of course Zwick was no answer. Also the comment that the Show was harder to play at than South Bend. USC-ND one of the best rivalries of all college football, green jersey, new coahc, undeafted streak on the line, etc. not saying it was tougher than the Shoe but it was not less
ThrowinPicks said:
Why?
Scott, you've done your homework, come to a conclusion and now it's time to bet. We look at games all year and try to find an small edge. In this game you seem to have found a large edge (11 pt.) from the posted line. Most of us would bet a game if we could find a 3 pt. line edge.
The amount of the bet should be irrelevent. If you've got that kind of confidence, then bet the sonofabitch, and hit it hard (as you have).
Very similar to BalckJack. When the count is in your favor, it calls for a bigger bet. Sure, you will lose some, but you'll win the majority.
Good Luck on your play.
3 Seconds said:
You want my prediction what you will see? For starters, know that Leinart can audible/check off any plays based on D he see's. He is like Payton Manning of CFB. No doubt.
USC will put in BOTH White and Bush in at same time. (something USC has not done this year but did last year)
White lines up at RB and Bush splits out. Bush splits out creates mismatch. Bush might be the best WR on the field for both teams. Huff has begged coaches to be assigned to Bush. Fine go guard Bush. That takes away the safety and opens up the deep ball for BYRD, JARRET or SMITH. Hell, USC's FB's are capable of catching 20 yard passes on wheel routes. All this happens because Texas is focusing on Bush. YOU CAN'T! OU did it and USC had no problem using Bush as decoy. USC doesn't force their offense on anybody. Bush has not lined up at WR often this year and has not caught many passes from the backfield downfield like he did last year. USC is saving these plays for the big game. Trust me. If Leinart see's a LB on Bush, well guess where the ball is going!
But why just talk about passing. With White at RB, he will be able to PUNISH those undersized LB's of Texas. Why doesn't the media bring this up? WHITE is super powerback with speed. He literally hurts defensive players with his running style. Think BETTIS when he played at ND. It also helps that USC OL is very physical and opens holes for White to accelerate his 230+ pound body. White is seriously thinking of staying and he wants to win the Heisman next year. This guy will get well over 2000 yards as featured back. After White punishes the D, Bush easily runs around them. Deadly combo who compliments each other well. Throw in Leinart and great OL and you see why USC is deadly. USC can only beat themselves.
FYI, last years OB OU shut down Bush early on. However, OU looked like they never seen a powerback in Big 12 play when White came onto the field (with a bum ankle). I already proven that Texas tackle leaders are not their front 7. GOOD LUCK WITH THOSE GUYS TACKLING WHITE!
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Scott4USC said:
I found a link to the interview that Chizik gave on January 1st at the Beverly Hills Hilton:3 Seconds said:
UT Press Conference
I listened to the entire interview and at no time did he insinuate that Texas has faced this type of offense before. Here are some of his quotes:
?Very explosive offense which is a different animal than what we have seen thus far with the dual threat running game and an exceptional passing game. . . . . .?
?We have used Ramonce and Jamal in an attempt to simulate the Trojan running attack and it has not been easy to do so.?
?They have so many threats and everyone talks about Reggie Bush but Lendale White is a huge back and we can not ignore him. . . . . .?
?Our biggest focus has been asking ourselves how are we going to be able to corral this offense that can beat you so many ways.?
?They have the whole package and play very physical especially with there front five. There is no way you can beat USC without playing physical because that is what they are.?
?In some games that have been close, you just see how they have been able to take the game over. There adjustments are really good and they do seem to wait to see what the other team is doing Their halftime adjustments have been really good and they have been able to come back and take over games in the second half.?
"This game will be our ultimate challenge. When you are playing a team that has been tagged by some as one of the best teams in college football history, it is a chance of a lifetime."
"USC does a great job of creating mismatches by formationing you. They will try to hide Reggie by lining him up at different positions."
None of that suggests any "arrogance" to me.
It was on ESPN sportscenter where they showed Chizik coaching his team in bowl practice. They then went to closeup interview (studio) and that is when Chizik said that satatement. It was NOT a press conf. piece. It was an ESPN SPORTSCENTER piece. 3 seconds (Texas fan) heard it too.
3 Seconds said:
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