USC to cover?

Da_Insider

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anybody leaning towards USC this weekend?...reading lots that pete carroll's defense will be able to stop the auburn running attack...

line at USC +4 right now...leaning towards the Trojans...any thoughts?
 

Marra

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Put it this way...

Would you want to be a 1st time starter QB at Auburn the first game of the year?

It's very hard to pull the trigger on USC when they are starting Leinhart. Who knows how good he is, and how he is going to react AT Auburn. That is a gamble in and of itself.
 

seeker

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I would pass on this high profile game, imo vegas has
dialed in the number. I had 4 or 4.5 as well. I really see
no edge to a side. I do see some situations that favor
Auburn, however at this point I would not be willing to
lay -4. GL to you.

:)
 

ferdville

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USC has had a very competitive quarterback battle all summer. If Leinhart stumbles, I think Carroll will go to the bench in the 2nd half if the Trojans are down big. The running back situation should be strong this year with a few new faces. More improvements in the receiving core as well. Some tough guys to replace on defense, but overall, I can't see Auburn putting up a lot of points. SC's punter has been booming them all summer and the fg game looks decent. USC has also spent a ton of time working to improve their special teams - an admitted sore spot last year. I think if you can get anything over 3 you should take it.
 

Scott4USC

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Good write-up FERDVILLE. I would add that QB Leinart has improved his game dramactically. Before spring practices, many fans projected him as 3rd string and as a quitter and not a leader. He had decent spring practice and was named temp. starter but all the QB's would compete in the fall again. No QB had stood out, all looked the same. Nothing bad but nothing special.

Well, in the fall he really stepped up and seperated himself from the other QB's from day one. He has recieved 70% of the snaps in every practice and I think that is vital because he is an inexperienced QB. HE also has shown to be a leader too in these fall practices. His play alone in fall camp has given many Trojan fans optimism and confidence coming to AU. The QB situation was a HUGE question mark, and now there is "chance" USC could get good QB play.

Reason i went off on Leinart is because he is the most important factor in USC winning this game. If he plays good, USC will win double digits. I am sure of that. All he needs to do to play good is just be efficient. Thats it. Get the ball to the playmakers.

Take USC ML at around +155. At worst, USC has a 45% chance of winning this game, and you get +155 ML.

FIGHT ON!!!!!!!!!!
 
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He Hate Me

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It doesnt take much to qb the Trojans, bubble screen to Williams, 8 yd curl to holmes and post corner to Colbert. they made an avrage qb like Palmer a Heisman winner and a 1st round pick, they will make lineart atleast an honorable mention all american by next year. If Palmer was qb for someone like Smu or Texas AM he would have gone undrafted.
 

dawgball

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I don't see any advantage to taking USC and the points (4) here. I believe the best bet in this game is USC on the ML. If the line continues to go up, then an ATS wager may come into play, but right now, IMO, USC has as good of a chance to win SU as they do to win ATS. There is more value in the ML in this case.

Any opinions?
 

wareagle

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QB- Edge to Auburn. JC has a wealth of talent, and the experience and confidence now to use it. Will he have a break-out game? Against USC I doubt it, but all he has to be is solid. Leinart will perform better than many expect, but he will have a crucial turnover or two.

RB- AU. Not even worth discussion. I wouldn't rate any team ahead of AU at RB.

FB- AU easily now that USC's starter Hancock is hurt. Bigger loss for them than many realize too. He was having a great spring and was a real weapon catching the ball out of the backfield. Basically eliminates a third down crutch for Leinart.

WR- USC. Williams and Colbert we know, but Smith and Wyatt are also dangerous. Best receiving corps AU will see all year, although UGA has some weapons too. Courtney Taylor is going to be big time, but it is his first collegiate game. Devin and Ben have ability, but are anything but consistent. A little worried here. Jeris has had a good spring and hopefully can carry that over. WRs have to make plays, and I don't mean spectaculay plays. Just catch the freakin' ball.

OL- Push. I like AU's starters more, but USC has more depth. Justice and McNeil are maybe the two best sophomore O-linemen in the country. USC is dinged up though. A starting center, tackle, and guard are all nursing injuries. Any wonder Petey Carroll wouldn't suspend Justice?

TE- AU. Wallace and Mix will stretch the field, and with Mix's improved blocking AU has four guys that can be an extra blocker (including Ross and Bennett). USC's best TE is out (Holmes), but his back-up is very solid in Byrd.

DL- AU by a little. That's right. AU over "The Thing". I actually think USC's starters have an edge, but not by as much as they have you believe. Udeze is the best defensive lineman I think AU will see all year, and he will be a force. However, the rest of them are very good, but nothing better than AU saw last year against PSU or UGA (and maybe worse). Cody is overrated. The man has all the tools, but is coming off a major injury, and simply does not make as many plays as he should. AU's depth is also more experienced with guys like Eddins, Jackson, Dickens, and Murphy. These are two great D-lines, and there is very little separating them. Oh, except about 20 pounds per man across the line. USC is small, and this time they are not using their speed against Ryan Hockett and 340 pound Reko at tackle.

LB- AU. AU has a great starting trio that are playmakers, can fly, and lay the lumber. Up there with Miami and OU as best starting LBs in the country. USC's starters are quick, if undersized. They make a lot of plays, and it will be interesting to see if they can neutralize Mix. AU's depth has detriorated with attrition, but now they are just above average with LB depth, instead of superb.

DBs- Big edge USC. They have four very good corners that concern me a great deal. They also have a safety in Leach that performed very well for USC when Troy P. was hurt last year, and he is a real ball hawk. Bing is a physical presence at safety, but is inexperienced and very aggressive. AU has two solid corners, and then a whole lot of concern. There are guys that can get the job done back there, but can they? Especially against these WRs? I don't know, and this scares me.

Kicking game- Slight edge USC. Both teams are nervous about their inexperience at kicker, but USC does have a quality, experienced punter in Malone, although he is inconsistent. I am most intrigued about how good AU's return game will be. AU now has the personnel back there to have a good return game, so now we find out if it was the returners or the schemes that led to such a poor return game last year.

Overall- Edge to AU. The fact is USC is going to be putting the ball into the hands of four unproven players A LOT in Leinart, Smith, Bush, and Dennis. Against AU's D that should mean turnovers. However, AU could be susceptible to the big play against the USC WRs and in the running game if the safeties don't cover the running lanes.

I am very glad this series ends with USC this year. They are recruiting like I dream Auburn could, and contrary to what some may think, this is not your "LSU" recruiting where they only look good on paper. These kids had offers from all the big boys and do not appear to be paper tigers by any stretch. They are doing on the west coast what UGA is doing here, except they are nabbing players from a larger area and have better coaches.
 
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z2000

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Wareagle-

I really like your analysis, you seem to be very knowlegable on both teams. Can you reconfigure it a little bit and get more at the matchups that will occur on the field?

For example, it is Auburn OL vs USC DL, USC OL vs Auburn DL...

Another example, you say SC has fantastic CB's & Auburns WRs are inexperienced. Do you think SC's CBs are good enough to man up & stack against Auburn's running game? Are Auburns CBs good enough to play up on the line & prevent the quick pass to Mike Williams?

I cant wait to see this game played out. I dont think an inexperienced qb will be able to pull SC out with a win, but the matchups will be fun to watch.
 

Scott4USC

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Great write-up war eagle.

I agree, AU has edge in QB only experience wise. USC has more talent at QB and i would not trade QB's.

I also agree AU has better RB's than USC, experience wise and maybe talent wise too. USC RB's are "extremely" talented but hve no experience. I would not trade Reggie Bush for any of AU RB's. He is just as exciting as Mike Vick and Marshall Faulk. Remember his name and he will play in AU game as 2nd string.

DL i disagree, USC has the best DL in the nation but AU has a good DL. Cody is the best Defensive Lineman for USC and reason he edges out UDEZA is because he makes the line better when he is playing. Cody "always" gets doubled and often creates havic despite double teams. Plus he is a lot stronger than last year, i seen him in person.

The rest of your analysis i agree for the most part.

This game is all about matches and I "think" USC has more matches to exploit Auburn. The USC advantage at WR is much more than the advantage of the AU RB's. Remember, USC DL is the strength of this team and thats going against the AU strength. Another USC strength is the WR going against the weakness of AU DB's.

I also have a feeling the USC DL will wear down the AU OL as long as the USC offense does hve too many 3 & outs (which they might).

An advantage AU will have is when USC plays Reggie Bush or Lendale White (2 freshman), AU will blitz and freshman RB's will not know there assignments. And guess what AU has, the best LB's in the nation. So when these frosh play, AU will know its most likely a running play (disadvantage for USC). However, Hershal Dennis is expected to carry the bulk of the carries and he should know the system and blocking assignments. Turnovers is also a concern for USC.

My prediction: USC will win by double digits. Right now i am thinking a 24-13 type score. I have confidence in Lienart that he will have a solid game and be efficent. Thats all USC needs out of him to win. USC will stack the line, and leave the DB's one on one with the AU WR's. Campbell will be be a threat passing the ball against USC (maybe against other teams). I think Banks is a much better QB than campbell and IOWA had much better offensive attack and better OL than AU and the USC defense SHUT DOWN Iowa and Banks. Guess what? USC returns most of that defense that played that day and we add CODY! Polomolou did not play that game. Thats why i have confidence in the USC defense and last year this same defense did not allow a 100 yard rusher all year. Pretty impressive especially facing the #1 schedule in the nation last year. AU will have to prove me wrong Sat. I do think AU is good/great team, i just think USC is better.

FIGHT ON!!!!!!!!
 

mgs4bama

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one intangible

one intangible

Forecast for Saturday on the Plains is 92 degrees (with kickoff @ 5pm, maybe 89 degrees) and humid. Heat index could reach 101. Auburn has good depth and used to practicing in these conditions. Haven't capped the game fully, just wanted to throw this out. I've seen many west coast teams over the years run out of steam and cramp up temendously when having to play in the deep south in August and September.
 

NY Reb

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Wareagle, that was an outstanding write-up! Thanks for taking the time to share your insights. I can't think of a thing I disagree with. I do think the USC backers will be surprised at the level QB Campbell will be playing on this season. Those who've remarked that he has no talent will eat their words.

Just one thing: another group of WRs who will challenge your secondary this year play for Ole Miss. I'm sure you know about them. I hope you do a write-up for that game like you did for this one. I'd love to hear your perspective. Tub and his former team once again.

Take care, man, and let's hope the Tigers give the boys from LA a whipping.
 

THE KOD

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Great info in here.

The best thing for us to do would probably be to just watch this game and get a good feel for both teams before making a wager.

But who the hell can do that !


WAR EAGLE !



KOD
 

freelancc

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the California Teams can not relate to the tremendous HUMIDITY they will experience in the southeast.... I will be watching the weather closely..:cool:
 

THE KOD

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freelancc said:
the California Teams can not relate to the tremendous HUMIDITY they will experience in the southeast.... I will be watching the weather closely..:cool:
..............................

freelanc

screw the humidity they better be worried about Auburn running through them like a tank. Don't matter if they are sweating when the cleats hit them in the chinstrap.

Really though Auburn is a very difficult place to win even with 4 points. First game of season at home, fans will be crazed. Big edge to Auburn I am thinking.

Auburn will not let up the pressure on Leinhert.

New QB for USC steps into Auburn untested with a
national audience = Uh oh !


KOD
 

wareagle

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1) SC DL and LB's versus AU OL: pretty much a stalemate up until about the middle of the third quarter, with a slight advantage to SC in the first half. If we don't have anybody go down on the OL, their smaller second team will dictate that the first team spend the majority of snaps on the field. The AU game plan will be to pound and make them run sideline to sideline. It will tell in the second half.

2) AU DL and LB's versus SC OL: in my mind this is the key to the game. AU will come out looking to stuff the run and put the game in Leinart's hands. We must get a pass rush with the front four and that will be difficult early. Our depth on the DL will be the difference this year. I look for our D to start making a difference in the game in the second quarter and control the LOS in the fourth.

3) SC QB and WR's vs. AU LB's and DB's: clear advantage to the SC WR's, the QB is questionable. SC will play a short game and look for mistakes by our DB's for big plays. AU absolutely must go three and out on 75% of the series. If the DL puts any pressure on the QB and takes the run away, our OLB's can pass support the short game and allow the DB's to control the big play. Our speed at LB will kill SC in this game. Mark it down. The SC big play capability will depend on time for the QB.

4) AU QB and WR's vs. SC LB's and DB's: In my uninformed mind, this is the biggest mismatch of the game, and I hope our coaches see it and abuse it.

5) SC OL and RB vs AU DL and LB's: SC's OL is very good but a little beat up. We are healthier. They start a frosh. He is a stud but he's up against speed. We must do what SC did last year and that is blow it up in the backfield, then not make the mistake of overpursuing. SC will have to run the ball successfully and consistently to win and I don't think that they can do it consistently. Can their freshman stud tote the pigskin for four quarters and still be an impact player? NO.

6) AU OL and RB vs SC DL and LB's: Over the course of the game I think we have the advantage. First half I think they will bring it to us. The passing game, and using our backs out of the backfield will greatly benefit the running game. We must come out in the second half with new wrinkles. Wearying legs on the SC defense will be the story of the second half. Our depth in the second half puts Uncle MO on our side.

7) Kicking game - who knows? Field position will be a huge factor in this game. Mistakes may lose it.
 
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