To those thinking of betting USC or ASU need to only handicap one thing. TURNOVERS! Turnovers will decide whether USC covers the spread or not.
USC cannot blow out teams without turnovers.
USC schemes (offensively/defensively) require + turnover ratio for them to dominate. USC the last 4 years has been #1 team in the country forcing turnovers so it isn't luck. It is by design.
Of course turnovers help every team.
Not all teams rely on the turnover as their primary goal. They play more agressive on defense , play tight corners, and don't give the quarterback all day in the backfield. Bend but don't break is not the universal scheme of football defenses.
They have other priorities on both sides of the ball. Any team that uses the shotgun accepts a certain number of turnovers a year on offense. Not PC. This is simply not acceptable.
USC philosophy to winning is to not turn it over on offense and take it away on defense. USC doesn't care how many yards an opposing team racks up on them. USC cares about turnovers. More plays an opposing offense runs, the higher probability they make mistake and turn the ball over.
If you turn the ball over against USC, you get blown out. Its simple but true.
Arkansas is classic example and they lost 50-14 @ARK. They turned the ball over, they got blown out @ARK. USC zero turnovers.
Nebraska only had 1 turnover (bad turnover) and they lost by 18pts despite trying to desperately shorten the game. USC zero turnovers. Game would have been worse if Neb. wasn't trying to run clock out.
(above 2 teams are tied for 1st in their BCS conferences and were completely dominated)
USC played @Arizona and were up 13-3 late 4th with ZERO turnovers from AZ at that point. USC -1turnovers not counting fumbled AZ punt late 4th. USC won 20-3. (should have been 13-3)
USC played @Washington St. and won by 6 with ZERO turnovers from WSU. Their INT was last play of game. (meaningless) USC -2 turnovers.
Washington played @USC, ZERO turnovers, and USC won by 6pts. USC -1 turnovers.
Both QB's from Washington schools are seniors so that might explain their success for playing flawless football. BUT USC should have forced more turnovers on D against UW but USC O was lucky not to turn ball over too. Washes out.
Whether you are betting on USC or ASU, like it or not, you are betting on the turnover ratio. USC O has been banged up all year and and is very young. Therefore it has no continuity. USC D is young and missing a ton of assignments during games. But playing solid for the most part except for forcing turnovers. Everyone knows ASU has an explosive offense with talented QB but we have not seen much of it this season. ASU D we know isn't very good.
Arizona St. had 5 turnovers @CAL and 2 turnovers vs Oregon. Now ASU is playing a team designed to win the turnover battle.
I am thinking of betting USC because I feel USC will win the turnover battle. If USC wins the turnover battle, it will be an EASY cover.
USC cannot blow out teams without turnovers.
USC schemes (offensively/defensively) require + turnover ratio for them to dominate. USC the last 4 years has been #1 team in the country forcing turnovers so it isn't luck. It is by design.
Of course turnovers help every team.
Not all teams rely on the turnover as their primary goal. They play more agressive on defense , play tight corners, and don't give the quarterback all day in the backfield. Bend but don't break is not the universal scheme of football defenses.
They have other priorities on both sides of the ball. Any team that uses the shotgun accepts a certain number of turnovers a year on offense. Not PC. This is simply not acceptable.
USC philosophy to winning is to not turn it over on offense and take it away on defense. USC doesn't care how many yards an opposing team racks up on them. USC cares about turnovers. More plays an opposing offense runs, the higher probability they make mistake and turn the ball over.
If you turn the ball over against USC, you get blown out. Its simple but true.
Arkansas is classic example and they lost 50-14 @ARK. They turned the ball over, they got blown out @ARK. USC zero turnovers.
Nebraska only had 1 turnover (bad turnover) and they lost by 18pts despite trying to desperately shorten the game. USC zero turnovers. Game would have been worse if Neb. wasn't trying to run clock out.
(above 2 teams are tied for 1st in their BCS conferences and were completely dominated)
USC played @Arizona and were up 13-3 late 4th with ZERO turnovers from AZ at that point. USC -1turnovers not counting fumbled AZ punt late 4th. USC won 20-3. (should have been 13-3)
USC played @Washington St. and won by 6 with ZERO turnovers from WSU. Their INT was last play of game. (meaningless) USC -2 turnovers.
Washington played @USC, ZERO turnovers, and USC won by 6pts. USC -1 turnovers.
Both QB's from Washington schools are seniors so that might explain their success for playing flawless football. BUT USC should have forced more turnovers on D against UW but USC O was lucky not to turn ball over too. Washes out.
Whether you are betting on USC or ASU, like it or not, you are betting on the turnover ratio. USC O has been banged up all year and and is very young. Therefore it has no continuity. USC D is young and missing a ton of assignments during games. But playing solid for the most part except for forcing turnovers. Everyone knows ASU has an explosive offense with talented QB but we have not seen much of it this season. ASU D we know isn't very good.
Arizona St. had 5 turnovers @CAL and 2 turnovers vs Oregon. Now ASU is playing a team designed to win the turnover battle.
I am thinking of betting USC because I feel USC will win the turnover battle. If USC wins the turnover battle, it will be an EASY cover.
Last edited:
