Got some stats on how this new system is working out.
May (last 3 weeks)
----------------------------
Rated..............#..............winners............%
70+...............50................27.................54............(ouch)
65-69............60................40.................66.7
60-64............67................44.................65.7
51+(dogs).....23................13.................56.5
Other than the 70+, these results were satisfying ... probably too many highly-rated games here, regardless.
Only the last one (dogs) considers the line, at all, and I was generally only playing if I got a value score of +5 or better (e.g. -150 needs 65% for a +5).
June 1-15 (just 'capped for 11.5 days worth, including missing 2.5 of the last 5 days ... I'm hoping that's why I've done worse, lately, but I'm pretty sure that most that I played would've been 'capped to play anyway.
------------------------------------------------------------------
Rated.............#..................winners.............%
70+...............12.....................8..................66.7.....('lil better)
65-69............15....................11.................73
60-64............38....................28.................73.7
60+(dogs).....6......................3...................50
51-59(dogs)...12...................9....................75
I should do an overall total, as things might balance out over the longer haul, but right now it's clear where my possible strengths are here. Many of the very highly rated games (70+) had ridiculous -200 or so lines, making them much less attractive to me. I should see how many of them won on the run-line, because I would've generally opted to play that way instead of feeding the man the juice. 66.7 is better than the earlier 54, but still not enough to make me comfortable. I did start this month allowing less of an edge for home-field advantage, in most situations, and more of an advantage for starters who have had previous success vs opponents. Any further adjustments (hopefully) will be minimal, as this already takes quite a bit of effort.
Anyway...
Gotta get some Z's, but the #'s I have for Tuesday suggests some real tough calls are in the offing:
Braves 53-47 (Reynolds/Myers)
Pirates 54 (D'Amico/Hernandez)
Mets 54 (Seo/Pavano)
Cubs 53 (Zambrano/Dempster)
Astros 56 (Robertson/Good)
Cards/Brewers 50-50 (Stephenson/Kinney)
Rockies 60 (Neagle/Peavy)
Dodgers 56 (Brown/Foppert)
--decent value for SF, considering the way LA's hitting (& McGriff not 100%), the way Foppert is pitching, and the fact that Giants have hit well vs Brown before...still don't know if I can go against Brown the way he's going lately.
--
(1)Yanks 53 (Weaver/Gonzalez)
--looks like value here, too, with EVERYBODY hitting Weaver (D'Rays have in past), and probably the better pen, overall, in TBay.
--
(2)Yanks 73 (Wells/Brazelton)
--even w/Wells recent struggles (3 of last 4 hurtin', I believe, but Brazelton should be crushed)
--
Indians 58 (Sabathia/Bernero)
--Bernero showing signs of life, lately, and Injuns bats ailing
Jays 65 (Halladay/Daal)
Bosox/Chisox 50-50 (Burkett/Colon)
--over might be good, as both starters hit well by opponents here
Twins 56 (Rogers/Affeldt)
M's 55 (Franklin/Appier)
--Angels a strange team this year - Appier is coming on, but bats have no consistency
--
A's 64 (Lilly/Santos)
--price here (A's) looks insane - Rangers due for an offensive burst, maybe, and Santos is trash, so another over possibility
Got some other projects keeping me busy, right now, so that's about all I can provide today. Interleague treated me just fine, until the last few games, but I'm glad it's over (for now).
No plays yet, but may add a total or 2 later (or Giants if I find the bejeezus).
Good Chance!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Then, moving in silently, downwind and out of sight
You've got to strike when the moment is right without thinking
(Pink Floyd-Animals-Dogs)
May (last 3 weeks)
----------------------------
Rated..............#..............winners............%
70+...............50................27.................54............(ouch)
65-69............60................40.................66.7
60-64............67................44.................65.7
51+(dogs).....23................13.................56.5
Other than the 70+, these results were satisfying ... probably too many highly-rated games here, regardless.
Only the last one (dogs) considers the line, at all, and I was generally only playing if I got a value score of +5 or better (e.g. -150 needs 65% for a +5).
June 1-15 (just 'capped for 11.5 days worth, including missing 2.5 of the last 5 days ... I'm hoping that's why I've done worse, lately, but I'm pretty sure that most that I played would've been 'capped to play anyway.
------------------------------------------------------------------
Rated.............#..................winners.............%
70+...............12.....................8..................66.7.....('lil better)
65-69............15....................11.................73
60-64............38....................28.................73.7
60+(dogs).....6......................3...................50
51-59(dogs)...12...................9....................75
I should do an overall total, as things might balance out over the longer haul, but right now it's clear where my possible strengths are here. Many of the very highly rated games (70+) had ridiculous -200 or so lines, making them much less attractive to me. I should see how many of them won on the run-line, because I would've generally opted to play that way instead of feeding the man the juice. 66.7 is better than the earlier 54, but still not enough to make me comfortable. I did start this month allowing less of an edge for home-field advantage, in most situations, and more of an advantage for starters who have had previous success vs opponents. Any further adjustments (hopefully) will be minimal, as this already takes quite a bit of effort.
Anyway...
Gotta get some Z's, but the #'s I have for Tuesday suggests some real tough calls are in the offing:
Braves 53-47 (Reynolds/Myers)
Pirates 54 (D'Amico/Hernandez)
Mets 54 (Seo/Pavano)
Cubs 53 (Zambrano/Dempster)
Astros 56 (Robertson/Good)
Cards/Brewers 50-50 (Stephenson/Kinney)
Rockies 60 (Neagle/Peavy)
Dodgers 56 (Brown/Foppert)
--decent value for SF, considering the way LA's hitting (& McGriff not 100%), the way Foppert is pitching, and the fact that Giants have hit well vs Brown before...still don't know if I can go against Brown the way he's going lately.
--
(1)Yanks 53 (Weaver/Gonzalez)
--looks like value here, too, with EVERYBODY hitting Weaver (D'Rays have in past), and probably the better pen, overall, in TBay.
--
(2)Yanks 73 (Wells/Brazelton)
--even w/Wells recent struggles (3 of last 4 hurtin', I believe, but Brazelton should be crushed)
--
Indians 58 (Sabathia/Bernero)
--Bernero showing signs of life, lately, and Injuns bats ailing
Jays 65 (Halladay/Daal)
Bosox/Chisox 50-50 (Burkett/Colon)
--over might be good, as both starters hit well by opponents here
Twins 56 (Rogers/Affeldt)
M's 55 (Franklin/Appier)
--Angels a strange team this year - Appier is coming on, but bats have no consistency
--
A's 64 (Lilly/Santos)
--price here (A's) looks insane - Rangers due for an offensive burst, maybe, and Santos is trash, so another over possibility
Got some other projects keeping me busy, right now, so that's about all I can provide today. Interleague treated me just fine, until the last few games, but I'm glad it's over (for now).
No plays yet, but may add a total or 2 later (or Giants if I find the bejeezus).
Good Chance!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Then, moving in silently, downwind and out of sight
You've got to strike when the moment is right without thinking
(Pink Floyd-Animals-Dogs)
