Vandy & Fresno St. - Dog Plays......Opinions

ND2002HORNS

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Looking at Vandy +11.5 and Fresno St. +29.
Auburn has to be demoralized and Vandy has played well at home recently. Last year they were not that bad at home and could have beat Miss. this year.
Okl. has UCLA next week and are coming off a draining Alabama game. This sandwich game could be worth a shot. You can not get up every week with the same emotion.

Opinions?? Thanks in advance.

HORNS:D
 

mjbarley

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I don't think Fresno St scores in this game, but I'm not entirely sure if Oklahoma can put up 4TDs plus against a very solid Fresno St defense.

This game will be very, very similar to Fresno St/Tennessee. Fresno St. offensive line is very poor (but after 2 games, they now have a total of 11 starts between all the linemen), so they'll probably end up with negative rushing yards again. Whoever plays QB will be running for their life all day. The only reason FSU covered against Tenn was a defensive score late in the game. The CB jumped a quick out and took the ball 70 yds (or something). This was after Tenn missed 2 FGs. If Fresno St is 3 and out all day (which is very likely), the defense will wear down again and they'll give up big rushing yards.

And Fresno St is already without QB Pinegar, and Grady got banged around and is probable (or questionable) this week.

The under in this game has tremendous value. OK 24-3.
 

mjbarley

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Because of Auburn's loss, that might spell trouble for Vandy. Auburn now realizes that any hopes of national title, or BCS bowl is long gone, so if Tuberville has any coaching ability, he'll get them focused on winning the SEC.

And with this being a conference game, they shouldn't take it too lightly. I think their letdown week was last week, and now they'll come out focused and play well. On paper, Auburn has the talent to just smoke this Vandy team.

With that being said, no way I would lay double digits with Auburn's offense, so I think the under in this game would offer great value as well. Auburn 17-6.
 

JEFF

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Just found this:
"Hill said Grady would be rested as much as possible this week in an effort to get the fifth-year senior healthy for Oklahoma. Starting quarterback Paul Pinegar, out with a torn chest muscle, isn't expected back until the Sept. 20 Western Athletic Conference opener against Louisiana Tech.

Fresno State resumes practice today after taking Saturday off.

"Jeff didn't get hit as much as he did [against Tennessee]," Hill said, "but when he did he got hit good. He showed unbelievable toughness.""

I agree with MJBarley, this looks like a solid under play. Guessing the total will be somewhere in the 45 range.
 

mjbarley

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I'll be surprised if the total is over 40.5, but if they post any total in the 40s, then it's a big play. I'll play any under as long as the total is at least 35.
 

Chenker

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total will be around 43 or higher IMO-

There is no way IMO that they are going to have a spread of -29 and the total at anything less than 43 because 1 TD by Fresno would mean at least a push (minus the juice)- Fresno can score 1 TD in this game I would be all over Fresno and the over if the total is less than 43 if the line stays at 29 or goes higher-

good luck-
 

bamabuck44

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I agree with your take on both of these, Vandy played Ole Miss very tough, and could have won the game, now at home with an Auburn team who has a real problem scoring, and on what was said to be a young and small Ga.Tech D-line that they would dominate with the run. Auburn will see the exact same thing this week with 8 men in the box and try and force Jason Campbell to throw the ball. Might not play Vandy, but surely can't play Auburn at this point. I've always leaned towards, Conf/home/double digit dog.
 

Sportsaholic

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Dont chase.....

Dont chase.....

Horns, every year (and every sport) theres a team I get caught up in, trying to figure out. And every time it ends up costing me $. Auburns not going to do it to me again this week. This is one team that was hyped and hasn't or cant play up to the expectation. Give them a couple weeks to see if they can turn it around. There are better bets on the board this week than pulling your hair out with Auburn.

JMHO
 

taoist

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ND2002HORNS said:
I do remember that TD FSU scored on Ten.

HORNS:D


I was at that game and Fresno should have never scored at all.... It was a stupid call on the part of Tennessee's coaching staff.... 4th down and the crowd wanting them to go for it with a 24 point lead.... Phat Phil should have kicked the damn fg, but he wanted to nail the coffin shut or impress the alumni in the home opener...or for some other reason only known to that fat bastid. It was stupid and it won't happen again....

...if Tennessee's defense can shut down Fresno, I expect Ok (who has a much better defense than Tennessee) to shut them out completely, but that's just my humble opinion. :shrug:


...hell, what do I know, I went 0-5 in the contest last weekend...as if buddy and Dr. Strange hadn't already informed the entire forum, I thought I'd throw that in.... :D
 

mjbarley

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Some interesting numbers

Some interesting numbers

One quirk when it comes to reporting college stats that I don't really like is the fact that they take QB sacks, and count that as negative rushing yards. It sometimes masks the true running ability of a team. Here are some interesting numbers:

3, 0, 0, 2, -3, 9, 0, 3, 1, 4, 0, 0, -1, 1, 3, 0

What are these numbers you ask? These were the yards gained on each rushing attempt, with QB sacks removed, by Fresno St. against Tennessee. What do they add up to:

16 carries, 22 yards

a whopping 1.375 yards per attempt. If we add in the QB sacks (3 of them: -2, -3, -4), we see the totals of 19 carries, 13 yards.

Fresno State offensive line has not improved in the last 2 weeks, so I don't see how they improve on these numbers at all. I agree with Taoist, that FSU doesn't score, but we'll give them the benefit of the doubt and give them a TO in Oklahoma territory, and they won't lose too many yards and put them out of FG range, and give OK the win 24-3. Small play on FSU here, but the real play in this game is the under! FSU defense is solid enough to hold OU in check
 

AR182

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i agree 100% with mjbarley. i think okl. will overwhelm fresno st. i will be taking okla. but am worried that they might be looking ahead to next weeks game vs. ucla. but maybe with fresno beating osu last week, caught okla. attention.


good luck, guys.
 

Bama6895

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I can tell you and others one thing: do NOT bet on Auburn. As for you thoughts on Vandy I am just not sure.

Vandy seems to be improved this year and has been predicted to be improved. However they are still Vandy. Vandy thought plays Auburn very tough every year. The same goes when they play Bama. Not to mention Vandy plays better early on before the effects of a 12 or 11 game schedule has taken its toll.

This Auburn team right now is in disarray. They have showed ZERO signs of life. Their offensive staff (Nall and Ensminger) is horrible. Apparantly from what I have been reading, they are tipping their plays. Not the exact plays but run versus pass.

Also, the offensive line has been getting pushed around like little bitches. It does not help when your QB is not that good and will not get rid of the ball. Campbell has been getting killed. The biggest complaint by far from the AU fans has been the inemptness of this OL.

I am going to stay away and just watch the game. However if I could get it at 14 then I would bet it. Since it will not get there, then I will stay away or package it in a tease.

Hope that helps at least a little.:D
 

mjbarley

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Oh my Oh my Oh my.

They posted a total at Pinnacle for the OK/FSU game that is 2 TDs too high. My biggest play of the year, I am all over this game to go under 46.5 points. Even with defense/special teams, how will these guys score 6 TDs, PLUS 2 FGs?
 

Bob Stoops

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For what it is worth on the OU-Fresno:

OU will score between 28-35 points on offense.

Based on the Sooner defense, I am guessing that OU's starting field position will be around the 40 yard line. You only need two first downs to get in scoring position.

That being said, for the third year in a row, OU refuses to go past page three in the playbook before the Texas game. They will run a lot between the tackles and the majority of passes will be in the 5-10 yard range with a couple of bombs thrown in.

Time of possession will be a huge factor in the late 3rd quarter but fortunately for Fresno the game time temperature will be low 80's with a chance of rain.

The Sooner defense is due for a score as is PR Antonio Perkins. I think the game will be very close to the spread, but FSU will not score and their turnovers will determine how many OU will score.
 
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