VD's preview: San Francisco 49ers

Vegas Dave

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Last Year:

For a team that has had 18 double-digit winning seasons in the past 20 years it?s fairly evident that winning games simply was not enough to save Steve Mariucci?s position with the team. Although he compiled a 59 ? 41 record during his tenure since 1997, his early playoff exits, and cautious play calling fed up the organization. Last year San Francisco found a way to finish ahead of nemesis St. Louis and win their division. Their record was not good enough to earn them a first-round bye, but thanks to a ref who was playing games on his cell phone instead of refereeing the 49ers snuck into the second round. After a quick tutorial from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on how to play football, San Fran?s season once again ended on a sour note. For a team that is returning most of its players without any major additions don?t expect the results to vary too much from the last couple of seasons.

What we learned from Last Year:

There are teams like the San Francisco 49ers in every sport. Teams like the Boston Red Sox, Minnesota Timberwolves, or even the Miami Dolphins are all good at embarrassing and pounding below average teams. They con everyone into believing that they are a true contender, but when they actually play the big boys they just can?t get the W. Have a look at their wins last year:

@NYG, Was, Stl, @Sea, Ari, @Oak, KC, Sea, Dal, and Ari. Besides impressive wins in New York and in Oakland, San Fran just beat up on fairly weak teams. Their losses came against fairly good clubs that they couldn?t contend with. This team looks really good in the regular season because they get to play mediocre opponents mixed into their schedule but when they are forced to play real teams in the playoffs, unless they are at home, they just cannot compete.

What else did we learn from last year? Well, not much. San Fran can run the ball. Big surprise. They have a good offensive line with two very good running backs. Kevan Barlow still didn?t break out because he?s still sharing carries with Garrison Hearst. San Francisco?s offense is still just good and not great because they still have no other option besides Terrell Owens. The 49ers? defense is still average because they still have a lot of young talent that is trying to mature. My next statement could be said for many teams, but if this team had a solid receiver that would take attention off of Terrell Owens this team could go to the Super Bowl. They need a Chris Carter, Keenan McCardell, Jerry Rice, or Hines Ward to drag one of the several DB?s off of Owens. That is this team?s missing link to success.

If you know what the word football is, or even if you don?t know what the sport is about but you have a friend who has a cousin, who has a girlfriend who?s brother watches the NFL on Sundays occasionally then you know who Terrell Owens is. This chum is a top three receiver in the NFL. He has blazing speed but not only that he?s a bitch to tackle once he gets his feet in motion. He?s constantly double, triple teamed, jammed at the line and is taking hits when he catches the ball yet he still takes the ball to the promise land. Some people might use the words Randy Moss, Marvin Harrison, Eric Moulds or Joe Horn in the same sentence as Terrell Owens, but let me just remind you that he has about 20 pounds of muscle on all of them. Some of them are faster than him, but none of them go down harder than Terrell. Unfortunately as much as he gives to this offense, he can?t really give much more. They need to get a capable receiver to start on the other side of him.

What has changed?:

As I?ve mentioned before, not a lot has changed on this team. We can start with Dennis Ericcson taking over Steve Mariucci?s role. Many 49er fans will blame Mariucci?s conservativeness for their inadequacies last year and that might be accurate. I would even argue that his conservativeness cost them 1 ? 2 more wins in the regular season but unfortunately even a coach will a relentless killer instinct would not have changed the outcome of their game with Tampa Bay. Changes needed to be made on this team, but if I was GM getting rid of Mariucci would not have been the first move I made.

On offense, J.J. Stokes is gone. J.J. was a big underachiever that teams didn?t really care to cover. He showed just average skills and was never able to give Garcia a second legitimate target. Tai Streets will take over in his place, but I would be very cautious to say that this move is an upgrade. The 49ers waited until the 4th round to draft a receiver but he might be a sleeper on this offense. He performed well in Illinois as has a knack for getting open. I don?t know why this team insists on keeping Garrison Hearst when they have a budding star behind him. There are teams looking for a good running back, and Hearst could be moved for a solid receiver. I highly doubt this offense will look much different than it did last year.

The defense has virtually remained the same. While some people might say that?s a good thing since this defence needs time to grow, I would say they might play very similar to how they played last year. Guys like Julian Peterson, Jason Webster and Zack Bronson have played well, but inconsistently. They have yet to take the next step to being really good players in the NFL. Mike Rumph looked like a bust and a half last year, but he?ll have a chance to redeem himself this year. I highly doubt this defence will look much different than it did last year.

O/U 9.5:

Well seeing is how very little has changed; here?s what we?ll do. We?ll give San Francisco 2 solid wins against real contenders and we?ll give them all of the easy wins against meager opponents. Sadly for San Francisco, St. Louis has several starters resurging to fill sore spots. Try saying that ten times really fast. Or you could try saying San Francisco is only 1 ? 7 against St. Louis since 1999, the one win being last year with Jamie Martin as the starting quarterback. Seattle has improved, so that leaves San Fran getting roughly 3 wins in house. Here?s the rest of their schedule: Bears, Browns, @Vikings, Lions, Buccaneers, Steelers, @Packers, @Ravens, @Bengals, @Eagles. Following the formula they should beat Chicago, Minnesota, Detroit, Baltimore, and Cincinnatt leaving them needy for a couple more wins against the top tier teams in the NFL. There is very little room for error if San Francisco is interested in winning ten games.

Fantasy Sleeper:

If you are looking for a sleeping beauty on this team, you are looking in the wrong place. The defense isn?t worth drafting and Jeff Garcia and Terrell Owens will be yanked off the board early on. People may reach for Tai Streets, but don?t expect him to have more than a couple of big games this year. If you want a sleeper from this team take a shot in the dark with Tim Rattay. He?s nothing special but Garcia has lingering back problems. Although he says they are not a concern, a late hit or a bad sack will remind him of the pain. This is not the type of injury that goes away during the season either and if he misses significant time, Rattay will be collecting the fantasy points for him.
 

60 SEC ASSASSIN

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VD, another well done writeup. My take on the Niners is that I see them regressing just a tad this season. The only reason they were able to win the division last season was because the Rams were all banged up. Anyway, I dont really see Erickson doing much in his first season. They really did not pick up anyone major this offseason. The good thing is by bringing back virtually the same team they will probably gel faster.

Niners fans better hope Jeff Garcia's bulging disk is not a problem. He literally can be one hit away from missing some games. Tim Rattay is pretty much still unproven & so is Ken Dorsey.

As much as I hate TO...this guy is just monster on the field. I like Tai Streets opposite TO. He should do a much better job than that bum JJ. If they are still able to get Antonio Freeman, I think they will have a nice trio of receivers. One thing to note is I believe TO is on the final year of his contract. Will the Niners sign him to a long term deal? TO & Mooch had a hard time getting along...will this be the same for Erickson? If things don't work out, I can see TO bolting to the Falcons, his home & his old receiver coach is there. How sick would that be...Vick, Price, & TO....damn.

I think Kevan Barlow will finally break out. He has shown his glimpses of studness when splititng time with Hearst. I think Erickson will do away with splitting time this year.

Lastly, I dont understand why the Niners are favored to win this division. I know St Louis has many question marks but like VD pointed out the Niners are 1-7 against the Rams over the last couple of seasons with their lone win coming against Jamie Martin & with no Aenaes in the secondary. Go figure ;)
 

cooz3

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i am a big niners fan...i''l disclose that off the bat...but my following opinion isnt influenced by that...if the play is against them ..so be it..i dont hesitate to bet against them at all..if i think thats the play...with that being said...

does anyone realize that Tai streets caught 72 passes last year?????..in 14 games???...in my opinion thats a productive NO.2 reciever...he finally was given a shot at starting as the organizationj became fed up with Stokes...i see absolutely no reason why he doesnt have 75-90 catches this year if he stays healthy....

you want a sleeper...try Cedric Wilson...this will be his 4th season this year and i think hes ready to step up....he showed flashes last year of being a very solid reciever when he was given the chance....the qusetion becomes whether he is going to get enough reps and chances to make a major contribution....

i cant really dispute the over all analysis..regarding san frans knack to beat poor teams and lose to true contenders...thats seems to be the sticking point for this team...they need to take that next step among the elite teams...im not sure this team is ready to do that...

the RAMS do look poised to make another run...as they are healthy again...if they remain healthy in thier key spots they should win this division....sanfran very easily could have swept this series last year...if memory serves me ...they were crushing the Rams at the half in the season finale..when the rams scored just about all thier points in the second half of that game...the niners were playing for nothing as the division and playoff spot was already guaranteed...and the scrubs came in during the second half...i dont think either of the head to head games bewteen the rams and niners last year were any indication of the true differences between these teams...the rams simply were a shell of themselves because of injuries and the niners simply didnt play mant starters when the rams came back in the second half of the last game of the season...i think it was a monday night game....

as far as RUMPH goes in the secondary ...how anyone can say he was a bust is beyond me....he was a ROOKIE for christsakes...people may want to wait a few years before throwing the guy under the bus...and if you followed this team...you could clearly see he was MUCH BETTER during the last half of the season after learning from his mistakes and after the niners started to let him cover the slot man...he looked much more comfortable...a dissapointment ???..yes ...a bust???..way to early to say that...

all in all...this team looks like a bubble team...it could have great year or could have a chit year....tough team to read in my opinion...

cooz
 

Vegas Dave

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Maybe its just me, but it sounds like you are really worked up in your post. Most likely 'cause you're as ready for the NFL season as I am.

Tai Streets did play well last year but keep in mind that he started 14 out of 16 games over of J.J. Stokes. 72 catches is pretty good, but he still is not a guy that opponents would ever double team instead of Terrell Owens. As of now, he would NEVER, EVER, get more defensive attention than Terrell Owens but that's what this team needs. That's either what he needs to develop into, or that's the type of receiver this team will need to find. He needs to develop into a Price to a Moulds, a Rice to a Brown, a Carter to a Moss. Know what I mean? He has played good, but is he really that much more of a threat than J.J. Stokes? Can he help get Terrell Owens more space?

I'm not too sure about Cedric Wilson. I think he benefitted alot from man-to-man coverage from the opposing teams 3rd or 4th cornerback.

Mike Rumph got burned a lot last year. Doesn't mean he won't develop into anything, but last year he looked pretty bad. Compare him to other DB's that were drafted last year such as Ed Reed, Phillip Buchannan (when healthy) and Quentin Jammer and he looked by far the worst. That's all I was saying. He will get a chance to redeem himself this year, but he has a lot of work to do.
 

cooz3

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LOL...vegas dave....i wasnt worked up at all...sorry it came across that way..

and i wouldnt dispute that fact that other recievers on the niners benefit from OWeNS getting all the attention....but so do the recivers on Minny with moss..and i dont see any of them stepping up ...just sying that these other recivers on sanfran may have the potential to have solid years...and of course that influenced by the defenses respect for owens...

sorry bro ...again didnt mean to come across as as being "worked up"...

cooz
 

Vegas Dave

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Jeez you get pretty personal when it comes to talking about your favorite team!!!

Just kidding, I know you didn't mean anything bad. It just sounded like you are excited that's all. Maybe its just because I was sitting in a room reading your post out loud and I kept increasing my reading speed and volume as I continued through your post.....

errrr.....I mean......ahh nevermind. :lol:

Nobody on Minnesota is stepping up to help out Moss, that's why they are an average team. But remember how good they were when they had Carter and Moss with a good running game? I know its wishful thinking but San Francisco would be a very good team if they had a solid second guy next to Owens. Streets is a good player, but he's not quite what they need. If he can surpass 1000 yards receiving and have a break out year this year that will really help out San Francisco.

:D
 

THE KOD

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Vegas Dave said:
Maybe its just me, but it sounds like you are really worked up in your post.
......................................

VD

you have a way of doing that to people.

KOD
 
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