Sunday, August 19, 2007
How many wins is a big-time coach good for in any given season? According to Las Vegas oddsmakers, the answer is "at least two or three."
One of the most surprising preseason lines posted on vegasinsider.com recently is the win total for Alabama. The over-under for regular-season wins for the Crimson Tide this season is 8.5.
That means the experts believe that Alabama's chance to win nine or more games is equal to the chance that the Tide will win eight or less. Or, more specifically, the oddsmakers are predicting that's what the betting public believes.
Except that's not what most hard-core fans in this state, the ones who should know best, believe.
While Alabama fans are supremely confident that Nick Saban will eventually lead the Tide to the top of the SEC and into annual contention for national championships, only the most optimistic fans on the fringe are predicting the turnaround will be that dramatic and that quick.
They recognize that Saban is a great coach, but they know he can't walk on water (contrary to what the cover of the team's media guide might suggest).
Auburn fans, many of whom follow the Bama program as closely as the Tide fans, don't even concede that Saban will ever have the Tide among the national elite, correctly pointing out that Tommy Tuberville has a 3-2 record against Saban head-to-head.
So why is the Alabama win total posted so high -- and identical to that of more established SEC programs such as Auburn, Tennessee and Arkansas?
First, it's a correct indictment of Mike Shula. It's easy to look at Alabama's results in recent years and point to many games that coaching could have made a difference.
But more than that, it's a sign that the perception of Alabama football has changed since Saban arrived. While Alabama under Shula had become and average team that was mostly irrelevant outside the state, the Tide is now extremely relevant nationally, even if the current roster is still just as average.
Perception is reality in college football, just like everywhere else. The perception is that Alabama is back as a major player in college football. When the actual play on the field will actual justify those national expectations is anybody's guess.
The incredible recruiting momentum Saban and his staff have been able to produce in such a short time is an indication that the Tide's fortunes may change pretty quickly.
But the defensive talent on this Alabama team does not suggest a nine-win regular season is realistic. If you need an example, look at noseguard.
The Alabama starter, Brian Motley, was an offensive lineman fresh out of tiny Autaugaville High School a year ago. After one spring on defense, he is the clear starter, even after he broke his hand last week.
That is the reality of the talent depth Nick Saban inherited. But, as the Vegas odds indicate, reality is not always the same as the perception.
Contact Randy Kennedy at:
rkennedy@press-register.com
251-219-5689.
His column appears Sundays in the Press-Register.
How many wins is a big-time coach good for in any given season? According to Las Vegas oddsmakers, the answer is "at least two or three."
One of the most surprising preseason lines posted on vegasinsider.com recently is the win total for Alabama. The over-under for regular-season wins for the Crimson Tide this season is 8.5.
That means the experts believe that Alabama's chance to win nine or more games is equal to the chance that the Tide will win eight or less. Or, more specifically, the oddsmakers are predicting that's what the betting public believes.
Except that's not what most hard-core fans in this state, the ones who should know best, believe.
While Alabama fans are supremely confident that Nick Saban will eventually lead the Tide to the top of the SEC and into annual contention for national championships, only the most optimistic fans on the fringe are predicting the turnaround will be that dramatic and that quick.
They recognize that Saban is a great coach, but they know he can't walk on water (contrary to what the cover of the team's media guide might suggest).
Auburn fans, many of whom follow the Bama program as closely as the Tide fans, don't even concede that Saban will ever have the Tide among the national elite, correctly pointing out that Tommy Tuberville has a 3-2 record against Saban head-to-head.
So why is the Alabama win total posted so high -- and identical to that of more established SEC programs such as Auburn, Tennessee and Arkansas?
First, it's a correct indictment of Mike Shula. It's easy to look at Alabama's results in recent years and point to many games that coaching could have made a difference.
But more than that, it's a sign that the perception of Alabama football has changed since Saban arrived. While Alabama under Shula had become and average team that was mostly irrelevant outside the state, the Tide is now extremely relevant nationally, even if the current roster is still just as average.
Perception is reality in college football, just like everywhere else. The perception is that Alabama is back as a major player in college football. When the actual play on the field will actual justify those national expectations is anybody's guess.
The incredible recruiting momentum Saban and his staff have been able to produce in such a short time is an indication that the Tide's fortunes may change pretty quickly.
But the defensive talent on this Alabama team does not suggest a nine-win regular season is realistic. If you need an example, look at noseguard.
The Alabama starter, Brian Motley, was an offensive lineman fresh out of tiny Autaugaville High School a year ago. After one spring on defense, he is the clear starter, even after he broke his hand last week.
That is the reality of the talent depth Nick Saban inherited. But, as the Vegas odds indicate, reality is not always the same as the perception.
Contact Randy Kennedy at:
rkennedy@press-register.com
251-219-5689.
His column appears Sundays in the Press-Register.
No way tide wins 9 games with their defense this year!! Tide "talent" level not even close to upper SEC teams!! Its the easiest prop bet for a teams total wins on the board!!! 7-5 my pick but will give you 8-4 at best!! Have a nice year 