Plays (13-7-2)
Kansas City Chiefs plus-2 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Chiefs had no business losing 16-10 to the Vikings as 3.5-point underdogs last week in a game where they were more efficient by 1.1 yards per play, giving them three borderline miraculous losses on the season. Pittsburgh?s quarterback situation is not a major concern as long as Kansas City is getting points, considering Ben Roethlisberger has a history of returning at less than 100 percent and turning in rough performances.
New York Jets plus-9.5 at New England Patriots Oddsmakers? power ratings are spot-on in positioning the Patriots at the top of the NFL, but behind on upgrading the Jets into the NFL?s elite. New York is the fifth-ranked team in Football Outsiders? DVOA ratings and second in the league in yards per play differential, meaning it shouldn?t get more than a touchdown on the betting line against any team.
Indianapolis Colts minus-4.5 vs. New Orleans Saints Lost in the comedy resulting from the most entertaining fake punt attempt of all-time was the fact that Indianapolis had an uncharacteristically sharp offensive game plan in its 34-27 loss to New England that included a 2-to-1 pass-to-run ratio. A similar strategy could lead to Andrew Luck sinking the Saints, which is worst in the NFL against the pass according to DVOA.
Detroit Lions plus-2.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings It?s becoming painfully obvious that Teddy Bridgewater, who ranks 25th in the NFL in passer rating, isn?t ready to make the leap to turn Minnesota into contenders as quickly as some expected. Not comfortable laying points with a quarterback who?s gone 1-8 straight-up, though 5-3 against the spread, in road games.
Seattle Seahawks minus-6.5 at San Francisco 49ers The Seahawks may have collapsed in each of their last two games, but it?s telling that they had in excess of a 98 percent win probability in the fourth quarter against both undefeated teams. Now?s the time to buy relatively low against a 49ers team ranked dead-last in both DVOA and yards per play differential.
Kansas City Chiefs plus-2 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Chiefs had no business losing 16-10 to the Vikings as 3.5-point underdogs last week in a game where they were more efficient by 1.1 yards per play, giving them three borderline miraculous losses on the season. Pittsburgh?s quarterback situation is not a major concern as long as Kansas City is getting points, considering Ben Roethlisberger has a history of returning at less than 100 percent and turning in rough performances.
New York Jets plus-9.5 at New England Patriots Oddsmakers? power ratings are spot-on in positioning the Patriots at the top of the NFL, but behind on upgrading the Jets into the NFL?s elite. New York is the fifth-ranked team in Football Outsiders? DVOA ratings and second in the league in yards per play differential, meaning it shouldn?t get more than a touchdown on the betting line against any team.
Indianapolis Colts minus-4.5 vs. New Orleans Saints Lost in the comedy resulting from the most entertaining fake punt attempt of all-time was the fact that Indianapolis had an uncharacteristically sharp offensive game plan in its 34-27 loss to New England that included a 2-to-1 pass-to-run ratio. A similar strategy could lead to Andrew Luck sinking the Saints, which is worst in the NFL against the pass according to DVOA.
Detroit Lions plus-2.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings It?s becoming painfully obvious that Teddy Bridgewater, who ranks 25th in the NFL in passer rating, isn?t ready to make the leap to turn Minnesota into contenders as quickly as some expected. Not comfortable laying points with a quarterback who?s gone 1-8 straight-up, though 5-3 against the spread, in road games.
Seattle Seahawks minus-6.5 at San Francisco 49ers The Seahawks may have collapsed in each of their last two games, but it?s telling that they had in excess of a 98 percent win probability in the fourth quarter against both undefeated teams. Now?s the time to buy relatively low against a 49ers team ranked dead-last in both DVOA and yards per play differential.
