VERY early, VERY strong play
- Thread starter Dizzayton
- Start date
Thanks weasel Typo should be @UNLV 27-7 W.
In any case, I still think this is a buckeye cover, My only concern is that wisky along with Louisville are two of my "Jackal & Hyde" teams. They are unpredictable, sometimes they play great and other times, like wisky last week-- they don't show up!?
Great thread!
Good luck to all!
Al T.
In any case, I still think this is a buckeye cover, My only concern is that wisky along with Louisville are two of my "Jackal & Hyde" teams. They are unpredictable, sometimes they play great and other times, like wisky last week-- they don't show up!?
Great thread!
Good luck to all!
Al T.
goldcupsports said:
gold
why do you say line movement is important ? Give me some examples please. To me its just the books adjusting for the 50/50
juice they have to have. And it may throw us off the sharper play.
Nolan made the below comment in a previous post:
By the way, I find that there is no correlation in the flow of money either way (up or down) and pointspread winners. There's some debate about this topic (is the line move triggered by sharp money or dumb money?) but it's still an unresolved question.
Thanks
Scott-Atlanta
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Scott-Atlanta said:
Scott if you really think that books are moving on action these days you are in a dream world. Also there are very few books now a days if any that get even action on any game. moving off or on numbers like 3 and 7 in the NFL can make or break a bankroll. You want a example last Saturdays Iowa total. Sharp money comes in early on UNDER 59 then hit the other way right before kickoff OVER 57? Game was sitting @ 58 until for some strange reason Iowa's Coach decides to take a saftey in the endzone instead of punting it away while they are up 30+ with under 2 minutes left. Sports gambling is all about the line. Sharps never buy into bad numbers and squares will buy into a number regardless what it is .
goldcupsports said:
Gold -
See here is the problem. If they are not moving on action then what and why does a line move. No one has ever been able to answer that rationally.
In my mind it has to be the line moves so the books will not lose any game to within a certain risk. And they got computers and smart people they pay to make sure that happens.
And thats how they stay in business and reap on us.
Scott-Atlanta
great points, goldcupsports. Wasting your time trying to explain yourself to most at this forum, though.
Wisconsin wins straight up on Saturday.
Wisconsin wins straight up on Saturday.
redsfann said:
redsfann
thanks for your contribution to world peace. you sound like you know alot. wish you could find it in your heart to participate instead of being the critic.
:thefinger :thefinger :moon: :moon: :moon:
Scott-Atlanta
I don't worry about line movements. If they move in my favor I'm happy, but I don't determine my plays on line movements.
Screw all the BS about OSU, I'm playing Wisconsin, you wanna know why????? Live F U C K I N G home dog, with nothing to lose and everything to gain. This buckeye team will not win the BIG 10, mark my words.
Screw all the BS about OSU, I'm playing Wisconsin, you wanna know why????? Live F U C K I N G home dog, with nothing to lose and everything to gain. This buckeye team will not win the BIG 10, mark my words.
As a big time Bucks fan who watches all games, i have to agree with dizzyathon; Ohio St.'s qb is pretty poor. He makes bad decisions and doesn't have a strong arm. He is capable of making big plays if the defense keys on Clarett, but the reciever had better be wide open. Also the O-line is below OSU standards, and the defense gives up chunks of yards although they haven't really given up many points (yet). I believe they are a top 10 team, but i wouldn't go much better than that right now. (saying that, though not deserving of it, they have an easy road to the fiesta bowl with their schedule; they don't play iowa and have mich. at home)
redsfann said:
Since Nolan doesn't adhere to the line movement theory, I guess he's one of the people that's too dumb to bother explaining to. Since Madjack endorses Nolan's acumen with a free picks page, we could safely assume Jack is too dumb as well. I listen to what these guys say quite often, so there's no question about my own inability to learn. This likely applies to a great many people who use this forum. Gee, I guess you're right.
OK here we go scott. Bookmakers received a tool a few years ago that made most not all but most bookmakers lazy. It is called DSB2K. This is a live odds feed for the world to see of some of the biggest action books out there. Most of the time a few books will move and everyone moves with them because they don't want to hold a stale number. There are tons of shops offshore that clone there number with guys who the believe to be in the know. The guys in the know know this. SO sometimes they put up a BS line move wait for everyone to follow and bet out as much as they can to get the numbers that they are looking for or trying to layoff.Wise guys do it to. They did it in the Iowa Total last week. It is called a "False Move". It is when they play both sides of a game. the manipulate a line to get the number they want to play at.
Line movement is one of the most impoortant factors in winning in the long term. For instance lets say there is a game out there that is @ 7. Wise guys come in and hit the number Hard and it moves to 9. Now the line climbs to -10 because of all the "Steam chasers" Now lets just say you see the game @ -10 and you just love the game so you unload on the -10. Now the line has moved from 7 to 9 then from 9-10 because of the followers does that make you buying on to -10 a good play? Answer no it makes you a square because you bought into a bad number. In this instance it may mean nothing and you win the game,But in the big picture the bookmaker will eat your lunch in the long haul betting into bad numbers. That is where line movement means more than you give credit . I am not a great writer and I don't claim to be a expert. As I have said many times before it is easier to explain this with a live odds feed in front of me. I watch lines on a average of 6-10 hour a day. You see many crazy things and pick up many things without once looking at a stat.
Line movement is one of the most impoortant factors in winning in the long term. For instance lets say there is a game out there that is @ 7. Wise guys come in and hit the number Hard and it moves to 9. Now the line climbs to -10 because of all the "Steam chasers" Now lets just say you see the game @ -10 and you just love the game so you unload on the -10. Now the line has moved from 7 to 9 then from 9-10 because of the followers does that make you buying on to -10 a good play? Answer no it makes you a square because you bought into a bad number. In this instance it may mean nothing and you win the game,But in the big picture the bookmaker will eat your lunch in the long haul betting into bad numbers. That is where line movement means more than you give credit . I am not a great writer and I don't claim to be a expert. As I have said many times before it is easier to explain this with a live odds feed in front of me. I watch lines on a average of 6-10 hour a day. You see many crazy things and pick up many things without once looking at a stat.
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Nighthorse,
If you say you're an idiot, who am I to argue that point. I don't know you from Adam. You want to follow Nolan's plays all the way to the poor house, go right ahead. Wow, I'm impressed. Someone has a pick page at Madjack's. How do you know that I don't have 5 or 10 pick pages at various sites on the internet? There are only 5 billion or so pages out there in cyberspace.
Scott asks a thousand questions, then turns right around two seconds later and dismisses the reply with some sarcastic, but mostly stupid-- comments and then gets bent out of shape when I post something that doesn't even mention him by name! Maybe I was talking about YOU.......:thefinger
If you say you're an idiot, who am I to argue that point. I don't know you from Adam. You want to follow Nolan's plays all the way to the poor house, go right ahead. Wow, I'm impressed. Someone has a pick page at Madjack's. How do you know that I don't have 5 or 10 pick pages at various sites on the internet? There are only 5 billion or so pages out there in cyberspace.
Scott asks a thousand questions, then turns right around two seconds later and dismisses the reply with some sarcastic, but mostly stupid-- comments and then gets bent out of shape when I post something that doesn't even mention him by name! Maybe I was talking about YOU.......:thefinger
I think goldcup touched on this a bit, but......................
Any universal or all-encompassing "report" on line-movement such as presented by Nolan, imo, has no value. The term "line-movement" in and of itself means absolutely nothing. The value lies in what is CAUSING the line movement. The ability to differentiate what IS and what is NOT causing a line to move is the meat and potatoes. Somewhere in there, you will find the holy grail......
Any universal or all-encompassing "report" on line-movement such as presented by Nolan, imo, has no value. The term "line-movement" in and of itself means absolutely nothing. The value lies in what is CAUSING the line movement. The ability to differentiate what IS and what is NOT causing a line to move is the meat and potatoes. Somewhere in there, you will find the holy grail......
Junior you hit the nail right on the head. Trying to figure out who is moving it and why. If you spent enough hours in front of a live lines feed in time you will pick it up. Trust me you will take hits on your bankroll early trying to figure it all out. NO one figures it out completly except for the originaters.
Here's a move for you...........Wisconsin will get their shit packed on Saturday!
Christ, Indiana beats these fukers every year!
Come the fourth qtr, Bucky will be looking for their helmets, like Thermal Thomas!
Christ, Indiana beats these fukers every year!
Come the fourth qtr, Bucky will be looking for their helmets, like Thermal Thomas!
a no-brainer
a no-brainer
c'mon, clarett will trample the weak wisconsin run defense.
after losing to Indiana, wisconsins bubble has burst...they are going nowhere. on the other hand, OSU is heading to the Fiesta.
my numbers show a 6 to 7 point edge for OSU...my gut tells me its gonna be closer to a 14 to 17 point victory for the buckeyes!
side note, i hope this stuff about clarett going pro soon is b.s., he's a future heisman trophy winner, i hope he decides to stay.
a no-brainer
c'mon, clarett will trample the weak wisconsin run defense.
after losing to Indiana, wisconsins bubble has burst...they are going nowhere. on the other hand, OSU is heading to the Fiesta.
my numbers show a 6 to 7 point edge for OSU...my gut tells me its gonna be closer to a 14 to 17 point victory for the buckeyes!
side note, i hope this stuff about clarett going pro soon is b.s., he's a future heisman trophy winner, i hope he decides to stay.
I said two weeks ago, that Wisconsin was about to be exposed. They might not win another game! This will be a high scoring game, but Bucky will get the raw end of the deal.
goldcupsports said:
I got alot of questions if thats ok. First off is this DSB thing really true ? I have never heard that before by anyone. Do you really know for a fact ? its interesting.
Scott-Atlanta
