VERY early, VERY strong play

[gardenweasel]

i can see why ohio st is the play

i can see why ohio st is the play

it`s their road acumen this year...."hammering" cincy and northwestern......that`s a real feather in their cap....wisky pissed after getting rolled by indiana (while looking ahead to this game)......everybody now knows you stop clarett,you stop the buckeyes....bucks have penn st on deck.....i think they struggle their asses off here....i also think the other trap is michigan going to purdue who may win outright there if they start the freshman at qb.....purdue sandwiched between penn st and iowa.....i wouldn`t be laying to many points in these ballgames....remember,the favorites don`t always win.....

 

[kebbyc]

I think the line is set due quite a bit to public perception along with the houses trying to get the 50-50 on the game. House just wants the losers 10%, Not interested in trying to pick the winner. Line moves strictly to suck more money in one direction. Public perception forces me to take Wisky coming off an embarrassing loss last week. Wisky was actually covering the 11 points into the forth quarter then got soft and let Indiana come back after they thought the game was over. I'll take the 7 or 8, whatever the line may be.

 

[goldcupsports]

DO I know what for a fact? That books clone there numbers? Scott if that is your question your kidding right? There are very few shops out there now a days that have scewed numbers other than maybe SIA and hell they will cut your limits in a matter of a few weeks.

 

[Pujo21]

TEASING BIG 10

TEASING BIG 10

WISKY + 13
PURDUKIE + 10

 

[Mickey's Picks]

My two cents........

If picking the best team was all that was needed to guarantee a win this would be a pretty easy living and we'd all be rich.

That's why the pointspread was invented..... to even things up and to, in theory anyway, make betting a particular side a 50-50 proposition. Add to that the many variables that can affect the outcome of a game which are beyond the bettor's control such as turnovers, officiating, fluke plays, weather, etc and it's no small wonder that very few make consistent, if any, profits in this exercise. So mentioning the obvious facts such as Clarett's running ability or Wisconsin's lousy run defense doesn't amount to a hill of beans as picking the winner of this or any other game is not that simplistic.

In analyzing today's games and placing my bet on West Virginia against "shitty" Syracuse I was reminded of an earlier game this year where virtually everyone on this board had Auburn as the play of the day at home against the the Orangepeels. No way in hell Syracuse should have been in that game no matter how you analyzed it but the fact is they played what to date has been their game of the year. These things happen each and every week and they don't make "sense" but that's where the "any given Sunday" theme comes in. I call it the logic of illogic.

Fact is, this is just the type of game where an overachieving team playing at home can knock off an undefeated nationally ranked opponent. Happens all the time.

 

[THE KOD]

.

Fact is, this is just the type of game where an overachieving team playing at home can knock off an undefeated nationally ranked opponent. Happens all the time.

Wisc 14 Ohio St 19

therefore the +6.5 points is a winner. Dizzy did you play it ?

yyz oh you were so wrong ))))....


Close game . Guess thats why they gave us the points.


Scott-Atlanta

 

[Dizzayton]

yes

 

[hellah10]

good call :drinky:

 

[THE KOD]

dizzy

way to stick with your gut play !

damn it was close though.


Scott-Atlanta

 

[THE KOD]

Here's a move for you...........Wisconsin will get their shit packed on Saturday!

Christ, Indiana beats these fukers every year!

Come the fourth qtr, Bucky will be looking for their helmets, like Thermal Thomas!

lol...hey yyz .......its kinda funny now looking back at it from the 20/20 perspective. The confidence was there, but where the hell did the rest of that come from ?

your here more now than you ever were!

moon: :moon: :moon: :moon:

Scott-Atlanta

 

[Jhpga]

Scott you really must be slow!!!You of all people on this board shouldnt be laughing at someone's loss of a pick.I think you're 2 throw it the F%$# down plays where both losers.Hey its 4am why dont you call your bookie!!!!!!!!!!!!Ill take the Eagles-3 its a lock..I got some inside info......no change that...I want the Bucs +3.....someone who will remain anonymous just told me Sapp is in a bad mood!!!!!THROW IT THE F@#$ DOWN!!!!!!!!

 

[THE KOD]

I don't worry about line movements. If they move in my favor I'm happy, but I don't determine my plays on line movements.

Screw all the BS about OSU, I'm playing Wisconsin, you wanna know why????? Live F U C K I N G home dog, with nothing to lose and everything to gain. This buckeye team will not win the BIG 10, mark my words.

hey Dizzy . now that the game is over and the time has passed.

I wonder if we go back and see what the line movement was on this game if any. what would that tell us. you cant just dismiss line movement. it may be the missing link.


Scott-Atlanta

 

[THE KOD]

Scott you really must be slow!!!You of all people on this board shouldnt be laughing at someone's loss of a pick.I think you're 2 throw it the F%$# down plays where both losers.Hey its 4am why dont you call your bookie!!!!!!!!!!!!Ill take the Eagles-3 its a lock..I got some inside info......no change that...I want the Bucs +3.....someone who will remain anonymous just told me Sapp is in a bad mood!!!!!THROW IT THE F@#$ DOWN!!!!!!!!

hmmm

I just seen this post. that was kinda rude Jhpga ..


I can laugh if i want. you cant tell me when to laugh.


Scott-Atlanta

 

[THE KOD]

Answer no it makes you a square because you bought into a bad number. In this instance it may mean nothing and you win the game,But in the big picture the bookmaker will eat your lunch in the long haul betting into bad numbers. That is where line movement means more than you give credit . I am not a great writer and I don't claim to be a expert. As I have said many times before it is easier to explain this with a live odds feed in front of me. I watch lines on a average of 6-10 hour a day. You see many crazy things and pick up many things without once looking at a stat.

if you have to explain it with a live odds feed in front of you then I dont think I would understand it anyways. I am seriously considering not every looking at line movement to make the play. I will use it as to when to make the play for ats advantages etc. but thats all. At least that is what I am thinking.


Scott-Atlanta

 

[pt1gard]

goldcupsports

goldcupsports

nice info, thanx for posting it!!

gregg

 

[THE KOD]

Scott asks a thousand questions, then turns right around two seconds later and dismisses the reply with some sarcastic, but mostly stupid-- comments and then gets bent out of shape when I post something that doesn't even mention him by name! Maybe I was talking about YOU.......:thefinger

The reply was that people in here were not intelligent enough to understand the deep prophecy of gold. I disagree with that.

fletcher does!

redsfann are you saying that fletcher is not smart enough to understand line movements ?

Yeh and I think you could have been talking about me.


Good luck tommorrow !


Scott-Atlanta

 

[dr. freeze]

great points, goldcupsports. Wasting your time trying to explain yourself to most at this forum, though.

hey redsfann.....i agree with you !!! write it down bud....lol.......

 

[goldcupsports]

Thats fine scott don't use line movement. I will let the wise guys and bookmakers eat you up by themselves with there number games. never said it was the missing link but trust me on this it will help you out in the long run more than anything. Oh wait you are the throw it down guy .. Ahhhhhh nevermind.

 

[THE KOD]

Thats fine scott don't use line movement. I will let the wise guys and bookmakers eat you up by themselves with there number games. never said it was the missing link but trust me on this it will help you out in the long run more than anything. Oh wait you are the throw it down guy .. Ahhhhhh nevermind.

I have decided to take line movement under further consideration.

A all new throw it down play is coming soon. I can feel it. My lucky underwear are in place and it is close to a full moon.moon:

Scott-Atlanta

 

[redsfann]

Dr Freeze

Dr Freeze

Man, all of a sudden I don't feel well........


When it comes to handicapping, Doc (and the purpose of Madjack's....IMO) I almost never disagree with you and your approach, logic and picks. Good luck in the future with all your plays.....