very surprised at some 10/01 lines...

gardenweasel

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these caught my eye immediately...maybe that`s not a good thing....

1)penn st+3 at home vs minny

2)tx tech-15.5 at home vs punchless kansas

3)iowa-17 at home vs illionois...this just seems like a big home bounce back game off a bad loss...could get ugly....the kind of game that tate goes crazy in...

4)iowa st+4 vs nebraska....over reaction to the army game?...i think iowa st can win this straight up....i`ll take the 4,though...

5)michigan +4.5 at mich st..i happen to think that stanton is one of the best college qb`s period...thought that last year before the injury....still.....maybe i`m a sucker...or don`t see straight...but,rivalry game....i had wisky yesterday...and i feel i lucked out....i`ll take michigan plus the 4.5....a little less on this one out of utter respect for stanton...
 

baltimore buc

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Like the Lions as well - I think their defense matches up a lot better with a team like Minnesota who is just going to jam it down your throat rather than that spread crap Northwestern throws at you. Minnesota coming off an emotional win last week, first time on grass this year I believe, and first road game since Week 1

I just have a good feeling that Penn State gained a lot of confidence last week with that road win (even though some will say - Northwestern??).

To top it off, doesn't Minny have Michigan on deck? Revenge from last year's loss - possible look ahead for Minny? Yes, I know PSU has the Buckeyes next week, but I think you have to be in a position to "look ahead" and the Lions have not been there since 2000.
 

INtheBLUE

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baltimore buc said:
Like the Lions as well - I think their defense matches up a lot better with a team like Minnesota who is just going to jam it down your throat rather than that spread crap Northwestern throws at you. Minnesota coming off an emotional win last week, first time on grass this year I believe, and first road game since Week 1

I just have a good feeling that Penn State gained a lot of confidence last week with that road win (even though some will say - Northwestern??).

To top it off, doesn't Minny have Michigan on deck? Revenge from last year's loss - possible look ahead for Minny? Yes, I know PSU has the Buckeyes next week, but I think you have to be in a position to "look ahead" and the Lions have not been there since 2000.

Ok I am a little confused abaout your analysis, so ill break it down into segmented questions.

1. Penn State gained confidence with needing to score 17 points in 4th over Northwestern, but its bad that Minnisota had close game with #12 Purdue?

2. Both have look ahead games but its ok for Penn State who faces an almost undefeated ohio state and bad for Minny because they face a now .500 rebuilding Michigan team?

3. Penn State will match up better at stopping a run oriented offense that is number 1 in the nation (after already facing the number 1 rushing D in the nation) than they did against Northwestern who is the #22 rushing O in the nation. Don't forget Minny has the #1 yardage leader in Moroney and the #1 scoring leader in Russell who is more of the scat back, not the run over you.

The only reason I question is because I wanna load up on Minny so I came in this thread to get talked out of it. Instead I find arguments that make me want to put more on it and you still pick the other side. I dont get it.

Looks to me that after what you have you have put down, you would make this a no play or based the decision on previous competition. Minny surely has the advantage there.

Either way good luck to you this week.
 

IE

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MACall:


A WINNING PROGRAM?


Just did the math -- thanks to my degree from Penn State -- and have reliably determined that the Nittany Lions are a winning team over the last two years. That would be an 8-7 record.

Sunday, we published the highlights of Saturday's thrilling victory over Northwestern. Today, we'll offer the bad, the red flags, the harbingers, the omens, the forewarnings ... well, you get the idea.

LOWLIGHTS

Defense: Is it possible for a team to have a time of possession of more than 60 minutes? That's what it felt like Saturday when Northwestern had the ball because Lion defense had its worst game in a year. Lions put too little pressure on the quarterback, were on the field for 95 plays and gave up 12 first downs on third-down plays. And two of those times, Northwestern made the first on fourth down. Lion defenders also made a couple of bad penalties to extend Wildcat drives.

Michael Robinson: Came through in the clutch but had three interceptions and four fumbles. Too many of his passes were tipped at the line. M-Rob also continues to overthrow receivers.

Offensive line: Did not consistently give M-Rob the protection he needs. And this was against Northwestern. One of the interceptions occurred when a State lineman was pushed into Robinson as he was throwing.

Receivers: Couple of dropped passes, including a bobble by backup Brendan Perretta that became a Northwestern interception. Still would like to see Derrick Williams lay out for the ball on some of those high passes that come his way. But I'm nitpicking here.

Coaching: Special teams not prepared for the fake punt or the pooch kickoff. Why is Robinson still so sloppy with the ball, a month into the season? What is Perretta doing in the game in the first half? He wasn't even listed on the three-deep player chart for the game. Lions also should have gone for two points after their final touchdown for a potential six-point lead.

SUMMARY

Mr. Negative would say Lions still haven't beaten anybody. And the schedule sure looks a whole helluva lot tougher with five of last seven opponents ranked and one of the others being hated Michigan on the road. But Lions are 4-0 and working on a six-game winning streak.
=======================
















PENN STATE 34, NORTHWESTERN 29
September 25, 2005 at 10:53 AM


Had 'em all the way!
Well, not exactly, but nobody's complaining after Saturday's dramatic and gutsy comeback victory, the first time this millennium the Lions have won their Big Ten opener. To be sure, Penn State tried like hell to give this away, particularly in the first half, with interceptions and fumbles and dropped passes and overthrown passes and tipped passes and special teams' unpreparedness and boneheaded penalties and a defense that gave up too many drives and too many yards and God knows too many third-down conversions. I mean, at one point I think Northwestern had converted 107 percent of its third-down plays. But I digress. On to the good stuff:
HIGHLIGHTS
That 4th-and-15th conversion to kick-start the game-winning drive in the final two minutes was a great call and well executed pass from Michael Robinson to tight end Isaac Smolko. I guess Smolko -- who had exactly no catches until then -- had lulled Northwestern to sleep.
Tony Hunt ran hard again and recovered Robinson's fumble at the start of the game-winning drive. Not sure what this all means for Austin Scott, but as we look back on his career, he hurt himself big-time the beginning of his sophomore year by arriving late for a couple of meetings. He was in line to be the starter.
Jordan Norwood showed excellent hands and an ability to get open. Yet another promising freshman wide receiver.
The rest of the wide receiving corps also came through with big plays and touchdowns again. What a moment for Derrick Williams' first career touchdown.
Great call by the coaches on the 43-yard reverse by Justin King. It was saved for the right time, that fourth quarter TD drive that gave the Lions their first lead.
Paul Posluszny was an absolute terror from sideline to sideline in piling up 22 tackles, including 14 solo. Safety Calvin Lowry added 12 tackles, seven solo.
At the end of the day, you have to say the Lions showed us that they could indeed win on the road, come from two scores down to win, and craft a game-winning drive in the final seconds. Sure, it was against Northwestern. But the Lions showed heart. It was an important step.
ODDS AND ENDS
How in the hell did Northwestern kicker Joel Howells, who was 2-for-6 entering the game, turn into Adam Vinatieri? How does he make five of six field goals? Ridiculous.
Refereeing was not exactly the best but I think it was fair. State got an undeserved first down on a fourth-down QB sneak by Robinson in the first quarter. M-Rob had slipped to his knees at least a half-yard behind the scrimmage. On the other hand, refs missed blatant block-in-the back which also was a late hit on Lowry in the beginning of the fourth quarter. And I'm not totally sure that Chris Harrell should have been penalized for hitting Northwestern QB Brett Basanez at the sideline to give the Wildcats a first down on their penultimate possession (always wanted to use that two-word combo). Harrell was lunging after Basanez when the QB, still in-bounds, darted out-of-bounds, where the collision occurred. It was a close call, and Harrell was hustling, but you could ask why Harrell, a senior, was even giving the ref a chance to throw that flag.
Dan Connor showed some rust at middle linebacker but look for him to start there next week, completing what should be a tremendous trio at LB for the next two years: Connor, Posluszny and Tim Shaw.
We all said there was no way the Lions could afford bunches of turnovers when they played a Big Ten team. Well, they had four, and also gave up the ball on a kickoff, and still won.
Looking ahead, does the State offense just keep pitching and catching, trying for the long ball, not caring about the turnovers? Maybe. Just maybe. Because a lot of big plays and points -- both in such short supply last year -- have been the result this season.
 

smart_money

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Would have liked to get some of that Texas Tech -15.5 yesterday. Unfortunately, I went for the purchase today to find -17 and passed. Expecting this thing to get clobbered up to 20/21 by kick.
 

gridman

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Regarding the Minn/PSU game, I believe the ??? factor is because Minny is on the road for the first time this year. No one knows how they will perform in Happy Valley. On a neutral site, Minny rolls but at PSU, ?????
GM :cool:
 

INtheBLUE

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Minny opened the season at Tulsa this year. So this would be their second road game.

Neither team is worth a crap against the spread vs a team with a winning record: Over the last 3 seasons Minny is 2-7 and PSU is 3-10

MINNESOTA is 4-0 against the spread versus PENN ST AT PSU since 1992

MINNESOTA is 1-0 against the spread versus PENN ST AT PSU over the last 3 seasons

MINNESOTA is 1-0 straight up against PENN ST over the last 3 seasons


Key Player Injuries
MINNESOTA
LB John Shevin Knee Questionable Sat. vs Purdue. 9/19
RB Justin Valentine Undisclosed Questionable Sat. vs Purdue. 9/19
DT Mark Losli Back Questionable Sat. vs Purdue. 9/19
T Joe Ainslie Hand Questionable Sat. vs Purdue. 9/19
PENN ST
DE Lavon Chisley Personal Out for the season. 8/29
LB Dan Connor Suspension Out indefinitely. 8/29
WR Mark Rubin Ankle Out for the season. 9/2

Just a lil info to help. Hope it does.
 

gridman

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Oooops. Sorry about that. Maybe Minny is now road "hardened" since they had to travel all the way to Oklahoma. Happy Valley should be a short hop for them. Ha! Ha! Think I'll put a little on the "Road Warriors" as I just don't think much of PSU's offense.
GM :cool:
 

INtheBLUE

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gridman said:
Oooops. Sorry about that. Maybe Minny is now road "hardened" since they had to travel all the way to Oklahoma. Happy Valley should be a short hop for them. Ha! Ha! Think I'll put a little on the "Road Warriors" as I just don't think much of PSU's offense.
GM :cool:

:mj07:

yeah Tulsa's rush defense was a real tough test against Minny. GLad I could help.
 

baltimore buc

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INtheBLUE said:
Ok I am a little confused abaout your analysis, so ill break it down into segmented questions.

1. Penn State gained confidence with needing to score 17 points in 4th over Northwestern, but its bad that Minnisota had close game with #12 Purdue?

2. Both have look ahead games but its ok for Penn State who faces an almost undefeated ohio state and bad for Minny because they face a now .500 rebuilding Michigan team?

3. Penn State will match up better at stopping a run oriented offense that is number 1 in the nation (after already facing the number 1 rushing D in the nation) than they did against Northwestern who is the #22 rushing O in the nation. Don't forget Minny has the #1 yardage leader in Moroney and the #1 scoring leader in Russell who is more of the scat back, not the run over you.

The only reason I question is because I wanna load up on Minny so I came in this thread to get talked out of it. Instead I find arguments that make me want to put more on it and you still pick the other side. I dont get it.

Looks to me that after what you have you have put down, you would make this a no play or based the decision on previous competition. Minny surely has the advantage there.

Either way good luck to you this week.

Blue -

1. Penn State gained confidence with needing to score 17 points in 4th over Northwestern, but its bad that Minnisota had close game with #12 Purdue? I never said it was "bad" Minny had a close game. Yes, my point was that Penn State, I think, gained LOADS of confidence with a road win. Coming behind after down 17 was big. I believe the Hoosiers were their only road win last year. On the flip side, you can't tell me that emotional win for Minny in OT didn't take just a little out of them.

2. Both have look ahead games but its ok for Penn State who faces an almost undefeated ohio state and bad for Minny because they face a now .500 rebuilding Michigan team? I don't think so - my feeling is to have a true "look ahead", and this is just my opinion, you have to be in a position to look ahead - I dont think Penn State has been in that position for a couple years now. Minnesota on the other hand, I am sure is looking to kick a Michigan team when it appears to be down, especially after the last two years giving the game away to Michigan (who can forget that 2003 collapse in the Metrodome). Just an opinion that Minny is in a look ahead situation more than Penn State

3. Penn State will match up better at stopping a run oriented offense that is number 1 in the nation (after already facing the number 1 rushing D in the nation) than they did against Northwestern who is the #22 rushing O in the nation. Don't forget Minny has the #1 yardage leader in Moroney and the #1 scoring leader in Russell who is more of the scat back, not the run over you. Yes, I think Penn State will match up much better vs Minnesota than Northwestern. Opinion - that's all. Let's get real though - Akron (81 yards/game rushing) and Arizona (101 yds/game) are not setting the world on fire and I think we can both agree that Purdue's run defense was not the #1 rush defense after last week's performance - not taking anything away from Maroney.

It seems like every year Minnesota craps the bed when they get into their Big Ten schedule - 2004 dropping 5 of their final 6 - and I am just waiting for that to start. First time on grass this year, laying points in Happy Valley, where as bad as Penn State has been over the last couple years offensively always plays tough at home in conference - why did the oddsmakers open Penn State as a 1.5 point favorote? If you are a Minny backer, ask yourself why a team that has looked as good as Minnesota coming off the "HUGE" win vs Purdue opened getting points vs lowly Penn State who should of/could of lost to Northwestern?

Good Luck to you this weekend. :)
 

INtheBLUE

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BaltiBuc,
Very good points, and excellent rebuttal. Thanks for an honorable debate. Seems to be a rarity around here lately.
 

INtheBLUE

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croweaters anonymous

croweaters anonymous

Already took them @ -3 @ BetUS for $200. For me that is a big play. I play $50's and occasionally $100's every week. But I pick 2 games a week to go $200 on. This and either Vatech or the Michigan/Michigan State over. Havent decided on the second yet.

Are we getting ready for a croweating contest?

I can take it!

:poke
 
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