i'm one those - water finds it level kind of guys. with idea pendulum will swing back, even things out -or pretty dang close to- in the end. now mind you, theres plenty year left for the catch up to take place, but based solely off results have through 4 weeks, heres what i have/see
in viking games.
the home team has gone 4-0 ats
the fav has gone 4-0 ats
--and that kind of makes sense, that home teams be favored
in giant games
the home/away cover sits at 2-2
the fav has covered at 3-1 clip
--that alone would suggest that an away team (min) has an edge (based off just minn's games), though an even stronger lean would be to the 'dog in this game (based off both min and nyg games)
now if you have'm cancel each other out, it ends up being just a smaller lean on giants based off favs in both games going combined 7-1. so then, the 'water finds it level guy' takes notice and would lean on the 'dog here, being the giants
so then, in a close game, i dig a hair deeper and see how both squads made out in turnovers LW
in nfl pretty hard to take care the ball mult weeks in a row -it happens, but is rare
minnesota - with no worthy mention* change in personnel has gone
0 ints, 2 fumb, 0 lost vs ATL while getting 1 int, 1 fum lost
2 ints, 5! fumbles, 2 lost vs GB while getting 0 ints, 2 fum lost
0 ints, 1 fumb, but 0 lost, 1 int and o lost fumb vs oak
0 inst again, 3 fumbs losing 2 with a 0, 0-0 line for bears LW
| Int, Fum | TO Dif |
| |
| 0, 2-0 (2, 1-1) | 3 |
| 2, 5-2 (0, 2-2) | -2 (1) |
| 0, 1-0 (1, 1-0) | 1 (2) |
| 0, 3-2 (0, 0-0) | -2 (E) |
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--the one that jumps out at me is not having created a turnover vs chi LW - that is one that has highest chance returning to mean (and thats kind of a given with rook qb and minn def, you'd expect, so really nothing too newsworthy here, right)
then too, cousins, mostly because of game script has only thrown int in 1 game -not passing a ton (ask adam and stefon) which makes for less chance turn over (at least ints, i hear he has had costly fumbles though(?) - i could be mistaken)
the gmen on the other hand - have
| Int, Fum | TO Dif |
| |
| 0, 3-2 (0, 0-0) | -2 |
| 2, 1-0 (0, 0-0) | -2 (-4) |
| 0, 3-2 (1, 0-0) | -1 (-5) |
| 2, 4-2 (4, 0-0) | E (-5) |
| |
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with mention worthy change personnel at qb with jones starting week 3
the stat that jumps out here too, the gmen, just dont create TO's
through 3 (dal, buf, tb) games they only had 1 int (at TB, in a wild one) - no fumbles even created (none in fact this year!)
they gobbled up 4 picks LW vs wash who changed qb mid-game to rookie, who proceeded turning over 3 of 4 pick (1 throw behind, pick 6, 1 jump ball, and 1 tipped ball - read: they don't do things to create pressure that inevitably leads turnovers, not yet anyways)
--that would be an outlier here, but even still, by number alone, one would say they are due to create turnovers, and most likely they do pick cousins off once (or perhaps, more likely scenario, get a fumble off him)
by just the numbers, turnover stats dont say any one thing or another, but suggest - suggest that minn will win the TO battle
prolly the trend that maybe is the better one to play on or against is the total
gmen are an even 2-2 O/U this year, whereas vikes are 1 ov 3 unders
to me that'd be a lean toward the over
historically - when the fav teams covers, the game goes under. i contribute that fav keeps dog under wraps to cover number but not bust total more often than not, which, if you were a fav player here, might take some the shine off of the lean towards over, however does, in ever soo minimal way, add lean to the 'dog
so then, what do we got? - favs being 7-1 combined outweigh minn games along having home team winning ATS all year, giving ever so slight nod to dog here.
the slightest lean in total to under, helps the 'dog's case -again, ever soo slightly-
however the turnover battle suggests that minn most likely win TO battle, and team that usually doesn that, wins game
and then too, incorporates the other rule - bet the team that wins! as they cover at better clips than most, which suggests vikings -- and heyt im not saying favs cant cover and go over - it just historically is like 57/43ish* kinda deal when favs cover, goes under kinda deal. obviously favs/overs happen all the time
* = (the number there is random guesstimate btw, as had researched previously and actual number escapes me)
it prolly is a stay away game as bp suggests
the viewer in me says this is prime spot for vikes, and the line looks wholly all-too-inviting based off way gmen got turnovers vs wash lw, and still only managed score 24 (again, 1 pick six in there) - but hey, the nfl, teams looking like floormats one week, man up and transform into world beaters the next (well, maybe not worldbeaters, but you get the gist) - any given sunday?
this could be a slam dunk game by HT, and i'll be kicking myself, however based off just these results telling me dog is the play, i'll prolly just touch the OVER
