This is the conference I know best so for the sake of my sanity I will try and cap every game now that conference play has started in full force. Word of warning...fading me is never a bad idea.
Utah State @ La Tech: This line is already up to USU -7.5 and that surprises me. Rupp is a solid coach with four straight covers including a straight up win as a two point dog to TCU, and I only see them getting better as the season goes on. Utah State does sport a decent 13-1 record, but there have been a ton of home wins and they simply aren't playing as good as their record indicates. Wyoming took them to OT at home and they failed to put Idaho away at home on Monday when they had every chance to do so...only shooting 36% in the second half. I rarely play USU as a fave because Morrill is notorious for taking a 10 point win and cover with 2 minutes to go and turning it into a 4 point win by running the clock out. In this spot, I just don't think they are playing good enough to go on the road against a very decent La Tech team and win by 8. They could cover, but I think La Tech has a shot at a straight up win. No play, but lean La Tech as the live home dog.
Nevada @ New Mexico State: NMSU is holding steady as a 5 point fave. Nevada is not playing well...at all. For a team that looked to be the cream of the crop in the WAC this year, to say they are disappointing is an understatement. Fox did have some players kicked off the team, and losing his 7 footer McGee has hurt, but it is the backcourt that is just not performing. This will probably be Fox's biggest coaching challenge as there is no Fazekus or Shiloh or Kemp on this team, just a bunch of workers. Fox is a good coach, though, and runs good stuff, but the natives are getting restless. Menzies, on the other hand, is a horrible coach who runs horrible sets with a bunch of classless, undisciplined, albeit talented, thugs. The Pan Am center is in the armpit of america with a bunch of "fans" who have no clue how to act at a game. That being said, NMSU scores a ton of points, have size and can wear a backcourt down with their speed and pressure. In this spot, with Nevada coming off a home loss to Idaho, I see NMSU getting out to a quick start and winning this one by 10 as Nevada fades strong in the second half. Play, NMSU -5.
San Jose @ Boise: This line is surprising as San Jose has beaten no one this year and starts a 4 game road trip at Boise who is only favored by 3. Two very mediocre teams, but Boise is playing better and San Jose seems to be getting worse. No Play, but tough not to strongly lean to Boise only laying 3 at home.
Hawaii @ Idaho: Wow...what a difference a couple of years make. Idaho is laying points in a conference game, and a significant number at 6.5, for probably the first time in 187 years. Meanwhile, Hawaii is making only their second trip off the Islands this year. Another team with a record that probably doesn't indicate what level they are playing at, the Rainbows 9-4 record is a bit of fools gold. Moscow is not an easy place to get into, or play at, and the atmosphere will be about as intense as a knitting competition at your local church. Despite Verlin coming in and making this team much more competitive much more quickly than even he probably thought possible, the fans on the palouse have yet to respond. Lack of fan interest notwithstanding, this is a team that is playing loose and probably harder than they have since Larry Eustachy or Tim Floyd had the reigns in Moscow. This is a big number for a team learning how to win, but Hawaii has been known to lay its fair share of eggs away from the friendly confines of the Stann Sherrif center. Lean, Idaho -6.5, but I think this number will come down closer to gametime.
pops
Utah State @ La Tech: This line is already up to USU -7.5 and that surprises me. Rupp is a solid coach with four straight covers including a straight up win as a two point dog to TCU, and I only see them getting better as the season goes on. Utah State does sport a decent 13-1 record, but there have been a ton of home wins and they simply aren't playing as good as their record indicates. Wyoming took them to OT at home and they failed to put Idaho away at home on Monday when they had every chance to do so...only shooting 36% in the second half. I rarely play USU as a fave because Morrill is notorious for taking a 10 point win and cover with 2 minutes to go and turning it into a 4 point win by running the clock out. In this spot, I just don't think they are playing good enough to go on the road against a very decent La Tech team and win by 8. They could cover, but I think La Tech has a shot at a straight up win. No play, but lean La Tech as the live home dog.
Nevada @ New Mexico State: NMSU is holding steady as a 5 point fave. Nevada is not playing well...at all. For a team that looked to be the cream of the crop in the WAC this year, to say they are disappointing is an understatement. Fox did have some players kicked off the team, and losing his 7 footer McGee has hurt, but it is the backcourt that is just not performing. This will probably be Fox's biggest coaching challenge as there is no Fazekus or Shiloh or Kemp on this team, just a bunch of workers. Fox is a good coach, though, and runs good stuff, but the natives are getting restless. Menzies, on the other hand, is a horrible coach who runs horrible sets with a bunch of classless, undisciplined, albeit talented, thugs. The Pan Am center is in the armpit of america with a bunch of "fans" who have no clue how to act at a game. That being said, NMSU scores a ton of points, have size and can wear a backcourt down with their speed and pressure. In this spot, with Nevada coming off a home loss to Idaho, I see NMSU getting out to a quick start and winning this one by 10 as Nevada fades strong in the second half. Play, NMSU -5.
San Jose @ Boise: This line is surprising as San Jose has beaten no one this year and starts a 4 game road trip at Boise who is only favored by 3. Two very mediocre teams, but Boise is playing better and San Jose seems to be getting worse. No Play, but tough not to strongly lean to Boise only laying 3 at home.
Hawaii @ Idaho: Wow...what a difference a couple of years make. Idaho is laying points in a conference game, and a significant number at 6.5, for probably the first time in 187 years. Meanwhile, Hawaii is making only their second trip off the Islands this year. Another team with a record that probably doesn't indicate what level they are playing at, the Rainbows 9-4 record is a bit of fools gold. Moscow is not an easy place to get into, or play at, and the atmosphere will be about as intense as a knitting competition at your local church. Despite Verlin coming in and making this team much more competitive much more quickly than even he probably thought possible, the fans on the palouse have yet to respond. Lack of fan interest notwithstanding, this is a team that is playing loose and probably harder than they have since Larry Eustachy or Tim Floyd had the reigns in Moscow. This is a big number for a team learning how to win, but Hawaii has been known to lay its fair share of eggs away from the friendly confines of the Stann Sherrif center. Lean, Idaho -6.5, but I think this number will come down closer to gametime.
pops
