Australia v Lions, Gabba
Australia -4.5
The first test of a series which has built momentum since the Lions' arrival to fever-pitch, thanks to some outstanding early form and some later on-field violence.
Remember we have already recommended a 2-unit play on the Wallabies to win the three-match series @ $1.67. The price actually grew to $1.85 after the visitors excelled in their initial tour outings, included a thumping of Super 12 semifinalist Queensland.
But the punters have cooled on Graham Henry's men after a loss to Aus A and a scratchy effort - intermingled with some feisty boxing bouts - v NSW. The hosts are as low as $1.55 to win the series now, with $1.62 the best head-to-head price for Saturday night's clash. I'll take the Aussies giving points and here's why.
Injuries have really hit the Lions in key positions - the loose forwards and second-five. The absence of their first-choice openside in Neil Back, along with the return home of England skipper and first-choice No 6 (or No 8) Lawrence Dallaglio are huge blows. It means Martin Corry comes into the team on the blindside with Richard Hill switching to No 7. Hill is an excellent player, but will be second to the loose ball and tackle situations behind a true opensider like George Smith. The re-organisation of the defence around the scrum, ruck and maul will also allow George Gregan and Stephen Larkham the scope the Lions were desperate to deny the hosts.
The unavailability of Will Greenwood is also a blow - he is a much more solid prospect than Rob Henderson, so expect Nathan Grey to test his opponent with his physical approach. Jason Robinson does give the visitors that X factor and he is a fantastic attacking talent but watch Larkham, Joe Roff etc test his positional and defensive play.
Most pundits expect the Lions to have the edge in the front row. The Queensland pair of Glen Panoho and Nick Stiles are no world beaters but then again, nor are Tom Smith and Phil Vickery. I expect the Aussies to hold their own enough not to make the set-pieces - both lineouts should win a huge majority of their own ball - a big deciding factor.
Look for the Lions to slow play down and take the hosts on up front, with Jonny Wilkinson kicking wisely - anything loose will be returned with interest from Chris Latham, Roff and Andrew Walker. Wilkinson has a slight consitency edge in the goalkicking stakes but Walker has already shown this season his ability to step up under pressure.
Discipline will be a key and I think we won't see much of the expected fireworks - Rod Macqueen and Henry will be telling their players a moment of hot-headedness could see their team 14 points worse off 10 minutes later.
I believe the Wallabies have really kept their powder dry for this series - the Lions haven't faced Latham, Roff, Walker, Larkham, Gregan, Owen Finngan, John Eales and Jeremy Paul on tour. I think the Lions' large injury rate is a sign of a side at the end of a long season and they will be hard-pressed to stick with the Wallabies throughout 80 frenetic minutes.
PLAY AUSTRALIA -4.5
Australia -4.5
The first test of a series which has built momentum since the Lions' arrival to fever-pitch, thanks to some outstanding early form and some later on-field violence.
Remember we have already recommended a 2-unit play on the Wallabies to win the three-match series @ $1.67. The price actually grew to $1.85 after the visitors excelled in their initial tour outings, included a thumping of Super 12 semifinalist Queensland.
But the punters have cooled on Graham Henry's men after a loss to Aus A and a scratchy effort - intermingled with some feisty boxing bouts - v NSW. The hosts are as low as $1.55 to win the series now, with $1.62 the best head-to-head price for Saturday night's clash. I'll take the Aussies giving points and here's why.
Injuries have really hit the Lions in key positions - the loose forwards and second-five. The absence of their first-choice openside in Neil Back, along with the return home of England skipper and first-choice No 6 (or No 8) Lawrence Dallaglio are huge blows. It means Martin Corry comes into the team on the blindside with Richard Hill switching to No 7. Hill is an excellent player, but will be second to the loose ball and tackle situations behind a true opensider like George Smith. The re-organisation of the defence around the scrum, ruck and maul will also allow George Gregan and Stephen Larkham the scope the Lions were desperate to deny the hosts.
The unavailability of Will Greenwood is also a blow - he is a much more solid prospect than Rob Henderson, so expect Nathan Grey to test his opponent with his physical approach. Jason Robinson does give the visitors that X factor and he is a fantastic attacking talent but watch Larkham, Joe Roff etc test his positional and defensive play.
Most pundits expect the Lions to have the edge in the front row. The Queensland pair of Glen Panoho and Nick Stiles are no world beaters but then again, nor are Tom Smith and Phil Vickery. I expect the Aussies to hold their own enough not to make the set-pieces - both lineouts should win a huge majority of their own ball - a big deciding factor.
Look for the Lions to slow play down and take the hosts on up front, with Jonny Wilkinson kicking wisely - anything loose will be returned with interest from Chris Latham, Roff and Andrew Walker. Wilkinson has a slight consitency edge in the goalkicking stakes but Walker has already shown this season his ability to step up under pressure.
Discipline will be a key and I think we won't see much of the expected fireworks - Rod Macqueen and Henry will be telling their players a moment of hot-headedness could see their team 14 points worse off 10 minutes later.
I believe the Wallabies have really kept their powder dry for this series - the Lions haven't faced Latham, Roff, Walker, Larkham, Gregan, Owen Finngan, John Eales and Jeremy Paul on tour. I think the Lions' large injury rate is a sign of a side at the end of a long season and they will be hard-pressed to stick with the Wallabies throughout 80 frenetic minutes.
PLAY AUSTRALIA -4.5
