Washington Redskins Preview

Lumi

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Washington Redskins Preview

There's nothing new about the lame duck phenomenon in Washington . D.C. It's certainly part of the political landscape, as many on the Hill (and, of course, the White House) recently experienced. Usually however, we're not talking about lame ducks in a football sense, but we wonder if we'll have to change that tune this year for that other Washington institution, the Redskins...in particular QB Jason Campbell.

The fact is that Campbell is signed only through this winter, and his long-term status in Washington suddenly doesn't look much different than George W. Bush's did at this time a year ago. Especially since the Skins spent much of their offseason apparently looking for a different alternative at QB. Sources indicate that Washington was reportedly one of the finalists in the "Jay Cutler Derby" that was eventually won by the Bears, and the Redskins made no secret about their maneuvering on draft day to move up and have a shot at one of the top available QBs, most likely USC's Mark Sanchez (who went to the Jets instead). Had Washington been able to trade up (as did the Jets) and land Sanchez, Campbell's agent Joel Segal was reportedly ready to demand an immediate trade. Which probably wouldn't have bothered owner Dan Snyder, who was supposedly the one behind all of the machinations to replace Campbell in the first place. However, none of the deals materialized, and, for the record, there were no Brett Favre sightings at Dulles Airport, either. So, by the time minicamp rolled around in May, there was Campbell , still standing, and still the Skins' starting QB...at least for now.


Campbell had become something of a popular scapegoat for a 2008 Washington season that eventually went pear-shaped after a promising start under first-year HC Jim Zorn, who had Skins fans thinking playoffs into December. Indeed, Washington won its first four games out of the box for Zorn, including surprising road wins at Dallas and Philadelphia, and was still sitting pretty at 7-3 after 10 weeks before falling into a trap door and losing five of its last six to finish 8-8. Along the way, Zorn's version of the West Coast offense stalled, recording only 16.6 ppg (ranking 28th in the league) as Campbell was battered behind an OL that was overmatched on a weekly basis down the stretch. Compounding the problems was the fact that Campbell eventually had few viable downfield receiving targets outside of WR Santana Moss, who was getting double-teamed too often to make an impact. Expected contributions from rookies such as WRs Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly, plus TE Fred Davis, never materialized, each struggling with the multiplicities of an NFL offense, hampered by missed assignments and imprecise route-running in a system that demands exact execution. Even All-Pro RB Clinton Portis (1487 YR in '08) had trouble gaining traction in the last half of the campaign, gaining as many as 80 yards only twice in the last eight games.

Although moves to alter the QB situation didn't pan out, Zorn and Director of Football operations Vinny Cerrato at least tried to address the issue of an aging OL in the offseason. The RT spot remains a question mark, but Cerrato went the free agent route by bringing back G Derrick Dockery, a former Skins draft pick who spent the last two years with the Bills. Cerrato, however, did little to enhance the skill positions in the draft or free agency. Perhaps that was because Zorn convinced him that his version of the West Coast will be able to expand and diversify in '09 simply because most of the components, such as QB Campbell, will be more familiar with it. Last year's rookie receivers Thomas, Kelly, and Davis (who combined for only 21 catches last year) will be expected to contribute more in the many three and four-receiver sets that Zorn employs; the athletic Davis, in particular, could emerge as a real threat given that Zorn wants to stretch defenses horizontally and vertically with 2-TE sets hopefully featuring Davis along with productive underneath threat Chris Cooley (83 catches , but only 1 TD, LY). The development of the young receivers is especially important since top two wideouts Moss and Antwaan Randle-El have been prone to injuries in recent years. It would also be no surprise if Portis, who appeared to wear down late in '08, begins relinquishing more carries to capable Ladell Betts, who has filled in admirably in the past.

Prospects for a defense that ranked fourth in the league are much brighter and further enhanced by some big-time activity in the FA market. In particular, the biggest fish of this year's FA pond, DT Albert Haynesworth, was signed away from the Titans in a mega $100 million, multi-year deal that may or may not have broken NFL tampering roles (the Titans apparently think so; if proven, the Skins won't lose Haynesworth, but could be fined and/or docked draft picks as the 49ers were last year for improper contact with reps for Bears LB Lance Briggs). Snyder also opened up the checkbook to re-sign playmaking CB DeAngelo Hall, and the draft focused on adding a few more toys for d.c. Greg Blache, including Texas' monster DE Brian Orakpo, whose versatility was showcased at minicamp when he also impressed in several reps at OLB. Maryland CB Kevin Barnes could also be a third-round steal. Last year's experiment with DE Jason Taylor, however, was a dismal failure, and OLB Marcus Washington was a cap casualty, but the stop unit still enters fall as definitely the more encouraging of the Skins' two platoons.

Bottom line...Given the money that owner Snyder has been tossing around in D.C., not to mention his meddling reputation, we suspect that both Zorn and Cerrato are on the clock this fall. Especially since the word around the league is that Cerrato might be in over his head in his personnel supremo role, an observation partially confirmed by the Jason Taylor fiasco. And by not lobbying harder for upgrades, Zorn is taking an awfully big risk by assuming Campbell and the offense will improve simply because they'll be more familiar with his system. Expect the Bill Cowher rumors to begin surfacing again as soon as it looks as if the Skins will miss the playoffs.
 

Lumi

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Green Bay Packers Preview

Green Bay Packers Preview

Green Bay Packers Preview
June 11, 2009


We can't remember the last time Greta Van Susteren became involved in an NFL debate. Until last July, that is, when Greta was suddenly in the middle of pro football's hottest controversy of the summer. With Keith Olbermann apparently either unavailable or simply not interested, Brett Favre chose Van Susteren's On the Record TV show to speak publicly for the first time about his latest (but, apparently, not his last) comeback from retirement with Green Bay. Greta probably never received better ratings in Wisconsin than the nights those two interviews aired last July. It turned out, however, to be only part of the ongoing saga involving Favre, the Packers, and Favre's heir apparent, Aaron Rodgers, who had been patiently waiting for his chance to guide the team almost as long as Conan O'Brien stood in the queue before finally replacing Jay Leno on the Tonight Show. Following Greta's interviews, the hoopla continued until Favre made a well-orchestrated arrival at training camp, where HC Mike McCarthy and GM Ted Thompson shut the door for good on Favre's return to Green Bay. The next chapter of the saga was the August trade of Favre to the Jets, though his shadow continued to loom large over McCarthy, Rodgers, and the rest of the Pack in what ultimately turned out to be a frustrating 6-10 season at Lambeau Field.

Not even Favre's staunchest supporters in Packer Nation, however, could blame much of Green Bay's precipitous fall from the 2007 NFC title game on Rodgers, who actually fared pretty well in his first run as the full-time starter. Indeed, Rodgers did what Favre couldn't do in his first two seasons as the top dog, throwing for more than 4000 yards, while being very efficient in tossing 28 TD passes and only 13 picks. Some did wonder, however, if Favre's absence hurt the Packers in the inordinate number of close losses they suffered (0-7 in games decided by four points or fewer). But anyone who watched Green Bay's games, or checks out the stats, knows there was a culprit far more responsible than Rodgers for last season's downturn.




In short, it was defense, or lack thereof, that wrecked the Pack. To that end, McCarthy, blaming the stop unit for that 7-game drop in the standings, went on an unprecedented purge of his staff that was the gridiron equivalent of Richard Nixon's infamous "Saturday Night Massacre" at the White House in 1973. McCarthy axed five defensive assistants, including d.c. Bob Sanders, and, if he had the chance, probably would have canned Archibald Cox and Elliot Richardson, too, had they been alive and part of last year's defensive braintrust. Veteran tactician Dom Capers, a former HC with the Panthers and Texans and a respected strategist, assumes d.c. duties for the fall. Capers will switch to the same 3-4 base he used in the '90s with the Steelers, but will also use other variations of the 3-4 and 4-3, depending upon the situation and personnel.

Capers would benefit from better luck on the injury front, which altered LY's dynamics in a negative way when DE Cullen Jenkins went down with a season-ending pectoral injury in the fourth week. Without Jenkins, the pass rush almost disappeared. Still, Capers has basically taken a weed-wacker to the stop unit, which suddenly has a few more things to worry about in the NFC North with new weapons such as Jay Cutler, Matthew Stafford, and Percy Harvin now in the neighborhood (and who knows, maybe Favre as well). The draft brought first-round picks B.J. Raji (NT) and Clay Matthews (OLB), both expected to start. Aaron Kampman, who provided what little pass rush was left in '08 after Jenkins' injury, has been moved from DE to OLB. The likes of vet LBs A.J. Hawk & Nick Barnett are also learning new roles in Capers' 3-4. The new schemes also present challenges for the DBs, which could be an issue for aging CBs Al Harris and Charles Woodson, who have been at their best in bump-and-run, man-to-man styles. Now, they'll be expected to play less press coverage and more zone, which puts more emphasis on instincts and coverage ability than on merely knocking a wideout off his pins at the line of scrimmage.

With McCarthy concentrating most of his offseason efforts on bolstering the defense, the "O" will have much the same look as last season. Rodgers welcomes back a dynamic pair of WRs in Greg Jennings (86 catches LY) and Donald Driver (74; potential contract issue), both 1000-yard receivers in '08. RB Ryan Grant (1203 YR) remains productive, but to bolster Grant's 3.9 ypc, McCarthy is seeking more cohesion along a zone-blocking OL. Yet with three starters off surgery and RT Mark Tauscher still unsigned, it might be a while before the forward wall is able to mesh.

Bottom line...McCarthy's purge of his defensive staff, and subsequent hiring of Capers, ranks among the boldest (desperate?) coaching moves of the offseason. But such radical switches in philosophy usually take time to resonate, and Capers might not be able to recapture his old magic right off the bat. And if he can't, last year proved that no matter how impressive Rodgers' stats, the "O" won't get the Pack to the playoffs by itself.
 

Lumi

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Chicago Bears Preview

Chicago Bears Preview

Chicago Bears Preview

Bears 73....Broncos 0?

Forgive us for reaching all the way back to the score of the Bears' 1940 NFL title game to come up with an appropriate analogy to the spring deal that sent Denver's emerging QB Jay Cutler to the Windy City in exchange for a couple of number one draft picks and Kyle Orton. Perhaps it's just the "trade gods" finally getting around to paying back Chicago sports fans for having decades to stew about that 1964 deal that sent Lou Brock from the Cubs to the Cardinals for Ernie Broglio. Or perhaps they're merely letting Denver have it for a trade that allowed the Broncos to steal John Elway away from the Colts 26 years ago. But you get the idea: rare commodities like Cutler usually aren't available for auction at this stage of their career, especially when they've already flashed uncommon star power, as Cutler did when passing for over 4500 yards in '08. So, after decades of enduring the likes of Jack Concannon, Larry Rakestraw, Virgil Carter, Bobby Douglass, Gary Huff, Bob Avellini, Mike Phipps, Vince Evans, Steve Fuller, Rusty Lisch, Mike Tomczak, Peter Tom Willis, Will Furrer, Rick Mirer, Moses Moreno, Cade McNown, Steve Stenstrom, Henry Burris, Rex Grossman, and Orton, Chicago might finally have its first bona fide star QB since Sid Luckman in the 1940s.





Cutler has his critics, most of whom cite the fact that he's never been QB of a winning team in college or the pros. But his performances must be taken in context, given that he spent four seasons at Vanderbilt and the past three trying to lead a Denver team that was similarly deficient in several areas. The fact is that Cutler made his Commodore and Bronco teams a lot more competitive than they would have been without him. For those who thought Cutler acted a bit pouty when he found out that new Broncos HC Josh McDaniels was trying to trade for his old Patriots QB, Matt Cassel, almost as soon as McDaniels stepped off the plane at DIA, the fact is that Cutler probably didn't behave too differently than any QB would have off a 4500-yard season.

Our concerns about Cutler have more to do with how he'll mesh in the clubhouse, where his sometimes-aloof demeanor was said to have chafed a few Denver teammates. How he gets along with Brian Urlacher, among others, could be interesting. Moreover, his new o.c., Ron Turner, once rescinded a scholarship offer to Cutler when Turner was HC at Illinois. But early indicators are that Jay has let bygones be bygones with Turner (who's now thrilled to have Cutler on his side) and is getting on quite well with his new comrades.

But Jay's arrival in Chicago has put a gun to the heads of HC Lovie Smith and GM Jerry Angelo in 2009. The Bears will be expected to return to the playoffs...immediately. The attack ought to uphold its end. Turner's version of the West Coast offense will still stress the run first, with '08 rookie sensation Matt Forte (1238 YR LY) again featured, which should help Cutler sell the play-action easier. Turner often ran double-TE sets last fall featuring underrated Greg Olson (54 catches LY)) and Desmond Clark, but now the o.c. is going to be more willing to look downfield and utilize Cutler's electric arm. The wideouts at the receiving end of those Cutler missiles remain a main question. Angelo could have delivered Turner (and Cutler) quite a present if he had signed ex-Ram WR Torry Holt, but he couldn't; Holt instead landed with the Jags. So, barring possible summer moves (which could include a risky addition such as Plaxico Burress or Cutler's old target Brandon Marshall, who has one foot out the door in Denver), Cutler will make do with what's available, which means return ace Devin Hester, journeyman Rashied Davis, or the ultimate sleeper, Cutler's old Vandy teammate Earl Bennett. Meanwhile, the OL appears to be a work in progress; much depends on vet FA Orlando Pace, expected to anchor the crucial LT spot, but at 33 not the frisky colt he was in his best days with the Rams. Another Vandy product, 2008 first-round pick Chris Williams, will slide to RT to make room for Pace on the left.

Lovie's defense has tailed off a bit since the 2006 Super Bowl season, but upon inspection still does plenty of things right. Consider how high the Bears ranked in some key defensive stats last season; third in yards per rush (3.4), second in TOs forced (32), and sixth in yards per pass (6.2). A bit better than Denver's numbers, to be sure. Lovie, some believe to his detriment, still remains committed to classic Tampa-2 schemes, but will likely introduce a few more wrinkles to goose the pass rush. The roving Urlacher remains a dominant force, and most of the other playmakers on the platoon (such as LB Lance Briggs, DE Alex Brown & CB Nathan Vasher) are still in their prime.

Bottom line...Those who have wondered what Chicago might have done the past few years with a real QB get their answer this fall. Cutler changes the dynamics for not only the Bears but also the entire NFC North. Our main question is if Chicago has enough quality receiving options to take advantage of Cutler's arm. The other pieces appear in place, both offensively and defensively, to perhaps make another Super Bowl run.
 

Lumi

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San Francisco 49ers Preview

San Francisco 49ers Preview

San Francisco 49ers Preview

Before we get in-depth with the 49ers, we wanted to share this observation about uberintense HC Mike Singletary: Can you imagine having to tell him that his services were no longer required?

Not that there was much chance of that after San Francisco rallied impressively under the Hall of Fame LB, promoted after Mike Nolan was told his services were no longer required late last October. After a pair of defeats to begin his regime, which included a peel-the-paint-off-the-walls press conference following his first game (a 34-13 loss to Seattle that featured Singletary banishing TE Vernon Davis from the sidelines), Singletary's 49ers bravely won 5 of their last 7 to finish a respectable 7-9. That was enough to convince the York family that Singletary deserved more than an interim shot to put the Niners back on the map.

Mention of the York family in regard to the team is important, because there's also been a not-so- insignificant change in the 49er infrastructure. The new man in charge of the team is Jed York, 28-year-old son of Dr. John York (the 49ers' previous president) and Denise DeBartolo York, who is still the No. 1 power in the organization. Bay Area sources indicate that Denise had enough of husband John's quirky and penurious attitude regarding the franchise, and since she had no interest in running the day-to-day operation herself, decided son Jed was a better fit. So, in a sense, Denise fired her husband and hired her son. Really!





Early reviews on Jed's new regime are encouraging. Among other positives, Jed is supposedly the one who resolved the awkward relationship between Nolan and GM Scot McCloughan by canning Nolan. Sources say McCloughan's relationship is far better with Singletary, who, unlike Nolan, is gladly letting McCloughan run the personnel show. That's not to say San Francisco is a lock to return to the playoffs; the 49ers have lost too much in recent years to assume as much. But at least the power structure finally seems to be in line with the way good teams go about things.

Meanwhile, since the marriage between Singletary and last year's o.c. Mike Martz was destined for an early divorce, the 49ers begin 2009 with, we're not kidding, their seventh different o.c. in as many years. Longtime NFL aide Jimmy Raye, whose extensive CV includes 14 different pro football assistant jobs (six as an o.c.), not to mention being Michigan State's QB long ago when the Spartans and Notre Dame played to that epic 10-10 tie in 1966, is the new o.c. at Candlestick. He's under orders from Singletary to change the 49er offensive philosophy from finesse to physical...ASAP. Thus, Raye will coordinate a run-dominated, power attack far different from the ones Martz and preceding 49er o.c.'s have installed in recent years, now designed to milk the clock and distribute passes off play-action that are set up off the run game. Sounds good...but is there a QB who can make it work?

That's a tough question. For the moment, Singletary has penciled in Shaun Hill, with a 7-3 career record, including 5-0 at Candlestick, as the starter. But the thought persists that Hill, a serviceable journeyman whose blue-collar style appeals to Singletary, simply has the job until somebody better shows up. That probably won't be former No. 1 pick Alex Smith or Ball State rookie Nate Davis. It could, however, be Michael Vick, a possibility not dismissed as of early June by either McCloughan or Singletary. McCloughan also presented Raye with quite a gift in Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree, a first-round pick who should immediately move into a starting role opposite ageless Isaac Bruce. Productive Frank Gore (1036 YR LY) remains the featured RB, but with more emphasis on the run and Gore's durability becoming an issue, expect holdover Michael Robinson and Alabama rookie Glen Coffee to assume a bigger share of the load. Singletary also added the quality RT he was seeking to help the ground game with the FA signing of ex-Steeler Marvel Smith.

Singletary has his own ideas about defense (and who, we ask, is going to argue with him about it?), doing away with Nolan's ever-changing personnel groupings in favor of a simplified scheme in a basic 3-4 that will emphasize controlling the run and switch to nickel packages against passing formations. Concerns caused by CB Walt Harris' season-ending May knee injury were somewhat alleviated by signing former All-Pro CB Dre' Bly to a one-year deal, but fellow CB Nate Clements is off a disappointing '08. The strength of the platoon is in the front seven, especially a frisky LB corps featuring young studs Patrick Willis, Manny Lawson, and Parys Haralson.

Bottom line...We suppose there's a chance the late 49er rally for Singletary was a bit of a mirage (they didn't, after all, beat a playoff-bound team last year). But the pieces seem to be fitting much better at Candlestick these days, especially with GM McCloughan (who, on top of nabbing Crabtree, also left the draft with Carolina's top pick next year) apparently pushing the right buttons. If Singletary can sort out his QB issues, the 49ers, who look no less likely to emerge than Arizona did at this time a year ago, might even break their 6-year playoff drought.
 

Lumi

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Falcons look to rise again

Falcons look to rise again

Falcons look to rise again

2009 Atlanta Falcons Preview



The Atlanta Falcons were one of the biggest surprises in the NFL in 2008 as they went from 4-12 the previous year to 11-5 last season and that included making the playoffs. Can Atlanta repeat that success in 2009? The Falcons are given some respect in NFL odds to win Super Bowl XLIV as they are 19-1.



The Falcons are considered one of the most exciting young teams in the NFL. Head coach Mike Smith did an excellent job last year and most NFL insiders don?t believe the Falcons were a one-hit wonder. Here is a look at Atlanta as they head into 2009.



The Falcons offense is led by quarterback Matt Ryan who had an excellent rookie season. Ryan threw for 3,440 yards last season as NFL odds statistics show and he should be even better this season with the addition to tight end Tony Gonzalez who the Falcons got from Kansas City. The Falcons already have a proven running back in Michael Turner who had 17 touchdowns and some solid receivers including Roddy White who had 1,382 yards receiving last year. The offensive line is solid and deep and the addition to Jeremy Newberry and Brett Romberg should help.

The defense for the Falcons is still somewhat of a question mark even though they were 11th in the league in points allowed last season. They lose long-time starters Michael Coley and Keith Brooking at linebacker but the addition of Mike Peterson is huge. Brooking was the leader of the defense and Peterson could step right in and replace him. The losses of Lawyer Milloy and Grady Jackson might not be as bad since both have seen better days.



The NFL betting Falcons now have a good front office and they addressed their defensive needs in the draft. They took Peria Jerry with their first round pick. Jerry should provide immediate help on the defensive line. Second round pick William Moore could step right in and see playing time at safety. They took defensive end Lawrence Sidbury in the fourth round and he could also make an immediate impact.



The Falcons will be hard-pressed to match last season?s 11-5 record even though they might be improved. Atlanta has a tough schedule which includes games against the NFC East and the AFC East. A 10-6 record seems more likely and that might be good enough to get them into the playoffs again this season.
 

Lumi

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Patriots getting respect

Patriots getting respect

Patriots getting respect
July 4, 2009


It wasn't that long ago that the New England Patriots were a near surefire bet. The sportsbooks couldn't put up a number high enough on them as they steamrolled their way to a perfect 8-0 straight up and 8-0 ATS mark through the first half of the 2007 season.

And while Tom Brady and crew continued on chasing the perfect season in the second half, the tide turned for the sports betting community, as a combination of sky-high pointspreads and opposing team's ability to somewhat gameplan for them, kept things closer. The result was an 8-0 run straight up, but only a 2-6 mark against the spread.

The Pats headed into the playoffs with the goal of booking the best season in NFL history, a perfect 19-0, crowned by a Super Bowl win.

But we all know how that supposed fairy tale ended; New England would march to the Super Bowl only to lose 17-14 as 12.5-point favorites to the New York Giants.


Bad karma seemed to hang over the team at times since that Super Bowl loss, with the team losing Brady last season in Game 1 and then missing the playoffs despite finishing with an 11-5 record (9-7 ATS).

But there is excitement around the team again heading into the 2009 campaign. Tom Brady is back and both bettors and their fans are expecting big things.

Online sportsbook SPORTSBETTING.com has New England listed as the odds-on favorite, at -450, to take the AFC East division, +320 to win the AFC championship and +600 to win the Super Bowl.

The betting action has been steady on New England in all three categories, but particularly to win the AFC East and to win the AFC Championship.

Their Season Win Totals number is high, at 11.5 (so they need to win 12 games for player's to cash their tickets), but bettors still like the "Over" on this one, as 74% of all the betting volume has come in on "Over" 11.5 wins. Hey, they did win 11 games last year with Matt Cassel at QB.

They do have one of the tougher schedules this season though. There cross-over division is the NFC South, which will deliver stiff competition (except for what looks like a weak Tampa Bay squad).

Hitting 12 wins with that schedule is going to be a challenge.

It all starts on Monday night opening weekend. The New England Patriots kick off their 2009 sked as part of the Monday night double-header hosting TO and the Buffalo Bills. SPORTSBETTING.com has the Pats installed as 9.5-point faves and the Total is set at 46.5.

In the last 20 home games against the Bills, New England has been very profitable going 12-7-1 ATS, with an Over/Under record of 6 overs, 13 unders and 1 push.

In the last 20 games overall vs. Buffalo, the numbers have been similar with the Pats going 16-4 SU, 13-6-1 ATS, while there has been a strong "Under" trend, with 4 Overs and 16 Unders.

It has been a tale of two teams when New England has been favored by more than 8-points-the Patriots are 18-2 straight up in that situation but only 8-12 against the spread.

New England is also 12-8 on the Over/Under when listed at more than -8 but is 2-8 O/U in the last 10.

Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and the rest of the New Englanders are looking to regain their swagger?.bettors will be watching them carefully heading into the season.
 

Lumi

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Dallas Cowboys preview

Dallas Cowboys preview

Dallas Cowboys preview

Anyone driving through the Metroplex in the offseason who happened to tune into Norm Hitzges, Randy Galloway, or one of the other local sports talk radio hosts couldn't avoid the hottest topic in Dallas-Fort Worth: Who was to blame for the Cowboys' disappointing inability to qualify for last season's playoffs?

There was no shortage of candidates. HC Wade Phillips, obviously, was a popular choice. So was QB Tony Romo, still without a postseason win after yet another late-season fade. Romo's flame, Jessica Simpson, was also targeted (especially if you asked the waitresses at the Arlington Waffle House, who personally vented an anti-Jessica tirade at us). Beleaguered o.c. Jason Garrett had his own critics. Terrell Owens and his annual circus was another favored suggestion, as was Adam "Pacman" Jones. Even new Dallas resident George W. Bush wasn't immune. But we think the buck stops somewhere else.

Try Jerry Jones.



Whatever the shortcomings of the others listed above, the fact is that owner/GM Jones had laid extra trip wires throughout the organization; the mere presence of acknowledged powderkegs such as T.O. and Pacman were situations begging to boomerang. Phillips' iffy status was also never really clarified by Jones, who announced that the young Garrett was effectively his head-coach-in-waiting. That put Jones in a pickle at the end of the season, when Jerry could have easily justified canning Phillips after the season-ending 44-6 loss vs. the Eagles scuttled playoff hopes. But it was also no time to promote Garrett, who shared some blame for the collapse. So instead of looking elsewhere for a new coach, there would be no new coach at all..at least for 2009. For the time being (and maybe not much more), Phillips remains on the job.

With the potential distractions of T.O. and Pacman now eliminated after both were released, there's hope for a return to some sort of normalcy in Big D. Most of the hoopla now surrounds the opening of Jones' palatial new Cowboys Stadium in Arlington, adjacent to the Rangers' ballpark. Among other highlights of the new facility is a 2100-inch, center-hung video board that is supposedly the world's biggest TV screen.

Romo's visage will undoubtedly be one of the most featured on the new board, but whether his mug induces cheers or boos remains to be seen. Phillips, Garrett, and Jones spent much of their offseason supposedly making the "O" more "Romo-friendly," but the possibility remains that it was T.O. who made Romo a Pro Bowl QB in the first place, and no comparable receiving threat remains on the roster. Jones sent three draft picks to the Lions for WR Roy Williams, but is still waiting on any return from that investment. NFC sources report that opponents began to key on o.c. Garrett's and Romo's tendencies last fall when the gameplan became too formulaic, and Williams didn't emerge as a major threat. And unless Williams delivers, the only quick-strike ability in the passing game might be raw speedburner Miles Austin, who has all of 18 career receptions. Insiders also believe Garrett might have gone away from the run too quickly at times in '08, when last year's rookies Tashard Choice & Felix Jones flashed considerable upside while complementing the productive Marion Barber. Meanwhile, upgrades for a heavy, slow, and aging OL were mostly ignored in free agency and the draft, when the Cowboys traded out of Day One completely to load up with extra picks in rounds three thru seven that might not provide much more than added depth in the fall.

Phillips, a coordinator at heart who has assumed the play-calling for his stop units as a head coach in the past (such as taking over for Charlie Waters at Denver in 1994), did the same LY when assuming the d.c. reins from Brian Stewart. Yet improvement is needed across the stop unit despite the presence of All-Pro OLB DeMarcus Ware, off perhaps his best season when recording 20 sacks. Phillips also will be seeking better coordination in the 2ndary, where he wants both safeties (Ken Hamlin & Gerald Sensabaugh) to assume more leadership. Offseason additions ready to help immediately are ex-Falcon LB Keith Brooking and ex-Charger DE Igor Olshansky. But Phillips also lost some key cogs in free agency, and with longtime stalwart LB Greg Ellis released, former top draft pick Anthony Spencer now faces a make-or-break year in Ellis' place.

Bottom line...Although some of the potential distractions (namely T.O. and Pacman) have been removed from the Cowboy equation, there remain plenty of ways for Dallas to veer off course again, namely Phillips' iffy status, and Romo's ability to not only produce sans Owens, but to finally perform in the clutch after late-season meltdowns in each of his three years as a starter. Whether Jerry Jones likes it or not, the Cowboys are no longer a chic pick to get to the Super Bowl, and they would do well to merely get back into the postseason mix.
 

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Under a mask.
Washington Redskins Preview

There's nothing new about the lame duck phenomenon in Washington . D.C. It's certainly part of the political landscape, as many on the Hill (and, of course, the White House) recently experienced. Usually however, we're not talking about lame ducks in a football sense, but we wonder if we'll have to change that tune this year for that other Washington institution, the Redskins...in particular QB Jason Campbell.

The fact is that Campbell is signed only through this winter, and his long-term status in Washington suddenly doesn't look much different than George W. Bush's did at this time a year ago. Especially since the Skins spent much of their offseason apparently looking for a different alternative at QB. Sources indicate that Washington was reportedly one of the finalists in the "Jay Cutler Derby" that was eventually won by the Bears, and the Redskins made no secret about their maneuvering on draft day to move up and have a shot at one of the top available QBs, most likely USC's Mark Sanchez (who went to the Jets instead). Had Washington been able to trade up (as did the Jets) and land Sanchez, Campbell's agent Joel Segal was reportedly ready to demand an immediate trade. Which probably wouldn't have bothered owner Dan Snyder, who was supposedly the one behind all of the machinations to replace Campbell in the first place. However, none of the deals materialized, and, for the record, there were no Brett Favre sightings at Dulles Airport, either. So, by the time minicamp rolled around in May, there was Campbell , still standing, and still the Skins' starting QB...at least for now.


Campbell had become something of a popular scapegoat for a 2008 Washington season that eventually went pear-shaped after a promising start under first-year HC Jim Zorn, who had Skins fans thinking playoffs into December. Indeed, Washington won its first four games out of the box for Zorn, including surprising road wins at Dallas and Philadelphia, and was still sitting pretty at 7-3 after 10 weeks before falling into a trap door and losing five of its last six to finish 8-8. Along the way, Zorn's version of the West Coast offense stalled, recording only 16.6 ppg (ranking 28th in the league) as Campbell was battered behind an OL that was overmatched on a weekly basis down the stretch. Compounding the problems was the fact that Campbell eventually had few viable downfield receiving targets outside of WR Santana Moss, who was getting double-teamed too often to make an impact. Expected contributions from rookies such as WRs Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly, plus TE Fred Davis, never materialized, each struggling with the multiplicities of an NFL offense, hampered by missed assignments and imprecise route-running in a system that demands exact execution. Even All-Pro RB Clinton Portis (1487 YR in '08) had trouble gaining traction in the last half of the campaign, gaining as many as 80 yards only twice in the last eight games.

Although moves to alter the QB situation didn't pan out, Zorn and Director of Football operations Vinny Cerrato at least tried to address the issue of an aging OL in the offseason. The RT spot remains a question mark, but Cerrato went the free agent route by bringing back G Derrick Dockery, a former Skins draft pick who spent the last two years with the Bills. Cerrato, however, did little to enhance the skill positions in the draft or free agency. Perhaps that was because Zorn convinced him that his version of the West Coast will be able to expand and diversify in '09 simply because most of the components, such as QB Campbell, will be more familiar with it. Last year's rookie receivers Thomas, Kelly, and Davis (who combined for only 21 catches last year) will be expected to contribute more in the many three and four-receiver sets that Zorn employs; the athletic Davis, in particular, could emerge as a real threat given that Zorn wants to stretch defenses horizontally and vertically with 2-TE sets hopefully featuring Davis along with productive underneath threat Chris Cooley (83 catches , but only 1 TD, LY). The development of the young receivers is especially important since top two wideouts Moss and Antwaan Randle-El have been prone to injuries in recent years. It would also be no surprise if Portis, who appeared to wear down late in '08, begins relinquishing more carries to capable Ladell Betts, who has filled in admirably in the past.

Prospects for a defense that ranked fourth in the league are much brighter and further enhanced by some big-time activity in the FA market. In particular, the biggest fish of this year's FA pond, DT Albert Haynesworth, was signed away from the Titans in a mega $100 million, multi-year deal that may or may not have broken NFL tampering roles (the Titans apparently think so; if proven, the Skins won't lose Haynesworth, but could be fined and/or docked draft picks as the 49ers were last year for improper contact with reps for Bears LB Lance Briggs). Snyder also opened up the checkbook to re-sign playmaking CB DeAngelo Hall, and the draft focused on adding a few more toys for d.c. Greg Blache, including Texas' monster DE Brian Orakpo, whose versatility was showcased at minicamp when he also impressed in several reps at OLB. Maryland CB Kevin Barnes could also be a third-round steal. Last year's experiment with DE Jason Taylor, however, was a dismal failure, and OLB Marcus Washington was a cap casualty, but the stop unit still enters fall as definitely the more encouraging of the Skins' two platoons.

Bottom line...Given the money that owner Snyder has been tossing around in D.C., not to mention his meddling reputation, we suspect that both Zorn and Cerrato are on the clock this fall. Especially since the word around the league is that Cerrato might be in over his head in his personnel supremo role, an observation partially confirmed by the Jason Taylor fiasco. And by not lobbying harder for upgrades, Zorn is taking an awfully big risk by assuming Campbell and the offense will improve simply because they'll be more familiar with his system. Expect the Bill Cowher rumors to begin surfacing again as soon as it looks as if the Skins will miss the playoffs.


The Owner is the real problem.He reminds me of the furher,always sticking his nose in everyones business.

Let the football minds run the field,and Snyder should just stay in his luxury box.Blaming Cambell is just wrong IMO.
 

Lumi

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Can the Panthers improve in '09?

Can the Panthers improve in '09?

Can the Panthers improve in '09?


The Carolina Panthers had an excellent 2008 regular season, tying the New York Giants for the best record in the NFC at 12-4. Unfortunately for the Panthers that regular season success didn?t carry over to the playoffs as they were humiliated by the Arizona Cardinals. In the off-season the Panthers gave quarterback Jake Delhomme a new contract and they put the franchise tag on defensive end Julius Peppers. Carolina is really not given a great deal of respect in Super Bowl odds as they are 20-1 heading into the 2009 season.



Carolina did a lot of things right last year, especially on offense with running backs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. The Panthers were third in the NFL in rushing yards thanks to that tandem. That took the pressure off of Delhomme and when he didn?t make mistakes, the Panthers won. In the playoffs he made a ton of mistakes and they lost. Is Delhomme a quarterback you can win with? The Panthers better hope so because they didn?t do anything in the off-season except sign him to an extension.


Delhomme still has one of the best receivers in the NFL to throw to in Steve Smith. And the Panthers have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. The Panthers have very little depth as there is nothing behind Delhomme or Smith so if either of them get injured the Panthers are in trouble. If Delhomme can avoid making mistakes and stay healthy, then the Panthers could have another very successful season in 2009.



Carolina?s defense slipped somewhat in 2008. They were not a top 10 defense and there are concerns again heading into 2009. The defensive line is good though led by Peppers. They also made a nice draft pick getting Everette Brown. The linebackers are solid but the secondary is suspect. There just are not a lot of big names back there. The starters at cornerback look to be Chris Gamble and Richard Marshall since the team let Ken Lucas go in the off-season, while C.J. Wilson will play in the nickel. The safeties are decent with Chris Harris and Charles Godfrey but they are not superstars.

The kicking game is in good shape with veteran John Kasay.

The Panthers made very few off-season moves from a team that finished 12-4 last season. Carolina could have a difficult time matching that record since they have the second toughest schedule in the NFL Betting in 2009. The Panthers have very little depth and Delhomme has not proven he can win consistently. The NFC South is a very tough division and the Panthers could fall to a .500 record if things don?t go well this season.
 

Lumi

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Are the Ravens for real?

Are the Ravens for real?

Are the Ravens for real?

Last year the Baltimore Ravens were a huge surprise, making it all the way to the AFC Championship game before losing to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Many people believe that the Ravens will be a serious contender in Super Bowl odds in 2009 as Baltimore is 20-1 but there are some concerns for the Ravens heading into the new season.



The Ravens are always tough defensively but they suffered a huge loss in the off-season as coordinator Rex Ryan went to the Jets. New coordinator Greg Mattison has the job now and he does have a lot of returning talent including Pro Bowlers Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and Terrell Suggs but all is not rosy as Ryan took linebacker Bart Scott and safety Jim Leonhard with him to New York. The Ravens are getting older and the losses of Scott and Leonhard are huge. Not having Ryan?s schemes is definitely going to hurt Baltimore this season.


The offense is led by second year quarterback Joe Flacco who was excellent last year as a rookie. Now Flacco gets a six-time Pro Bowl center to work with as the Ravens signed Matt Birk from Minnesota. The Ravens drafted right tackle Michael Oher and he should be a starter immediately. The receiving corps is led by Derrick Mason and tight end Todd Heap but the Ravens are still missing a deep threat though and that is an issue. The running game has three solid returnees in Willis McGahee, Ray Rice and Le'Ron McClain. One off-season loss that may go under the radar is the loss of fullback Lorenzo Neal. All he did was open holes for the trio of runners and help protect Flacco. Baltimore was very efficient last season on offense but that may not be enough this season if the defense slips as expected.

Normally a team is not defined by a kicker but Baltimore has relied on Matt Stover for years and he was not re-signed. Unless the Ravens bring in someone new they are looking at rookie Graham Gotto and Steve Hauschka battling for the kicking job.



One thing that should help Baltimore is the NFL?s fifth easiest schedule in 2009. Repeating last season?s 11-5 record may not be as easy as some people believe though, but the Ravens should still be in contention for the playoffs in 2009.
 

Lumi

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Will Arizona repeat?

Will Arizona repeat?

Will Arizona repeat?


2009 Arizona Cardinals Preview



The Arizona Cardinals nearly capped off an amazing season with a Super Bowl victory in 2008 but fell to the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Cardinals head into 2009 looking just as strong as they did last year, perhaps even better, but they must overcome a lot of negative history that is against them. Arizona is a 25-1 longshot NFL odds to win Super Bowl XLIV.



The Cardinals may look the same as they did last year but there were a lot of changes in the off-season. The two biggest changes you may not immediately notice are that offensive coordinator Todd Haley and defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast are gone.


Kurt Warner was re-signed in the off-season and that was huge for Arizona. He is a Pro-Bowl quarterback who knows how to win. Arizona will need to continue to protect him though as 38-year old quarterbacks don?t move around very well. Arizona has perhaps the best wide receiver in the game in Larry Fitzgerald and if Anquan Boldin comes back they will be as dangerous as ever with Steve Breaston continuing to improve. The Cardinals picked Chris Wells out of Ohio State in the draft and he could immediately take the starting running back job and greatly improve an area of weakness.



The Arizona defense during the regular season wasn?t very good but somehow in the postseason they turned things around. Which defense will we see in 2009? One of the players that performed well in the playoffs, Antonio Smith is done. They will need rookie Cody Brown to immediately make an impact or they could struggle rushing the passer. The good news for Arizona is that their linebackers, led by Karlos Dansby are solid and the secondary is very good led by Adrian Wilson and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Bryant McFadden was signed away from Pittsburgh and he should help.



The biggest problem that Arizona may face in 2009 is the Super Bowl runner-up letdown. It happens almost every year that the runner-up in the Super Bowl flops the next season. It may not happen to Arizona since they have a lot of talent but history is not on the side of the Cardinals. This decade only one team even made the playoffs after losing the NFL betting Super Bowl the previous year. The only reason the Cardinals might break the Super Bowl runner-up jinx is because they play in the NFC West which means they get San Francisco, St. Louis and Seattle. The Seahawks should be vastly improved but Arizona also gets to play the Lions this season.



Arizona may struggled to reach last season?s 9-7 record and make the playoffs if history is any indication.
 

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Falcons look to rise again

Falcons look to rise again

Falcons look to rise again

2009 Atlanta Falcons Preview



The Atlanta Falcons were one of the biggest surprises in the NFL in 2008 as they went from 4-12 the previous year to 11-5 last season and that included making the playoffs. Can Atlanta repeat that success in 2009? The Falcons are given some respect in NFL odds to win Super Bowl XLIV as they are 19-1.



The Falcons are considered one of the most exciting young teams in the NFL. Head coach Mike Smith did an excellent job last year and most NFL insiders don?t believe the Falcons were a one-hit wonder. Here is a look at Atlanta as they head into 2009.



The Falcons offense is led by quarterback Matt Ryan who had an excellent rookie season. Ryan threw for 3,440 yards last season as NFL odds statistics show and he should be even better this season with the addition to tight end Tony Gonzalez who the Falcons got from Kansas City. The Falcons already have a proven running back in Michael Turner who had 17 touchdowns and some solid receivers including Roddy White who had 1,382 yards receiving last year. The offensive line is solid and deep and the addition to Jeremy Newberry and Brett Romberg should help.


The defense for the Falcons is still somewhat of a question mark even though they were 11th in the league in points allowed last season. They lose long-time starters Michael Coley and Keith Brooking at linebacker but the addition of Mike Peterson is huge. Brooking was the leader of the defense and Peterson could step right in and replace him. The losses of Lawyer Milloy and Grady Jackson might not be as bad since both have seen better days.



The NFL betting Falcons now have a good front office and they addressed their defensive needs in the draft. They took Peria Jerry with their first round pick. Jerry should provide immediate help on the defensive line. Second round pick William Moore could step right in and see playing time at safety. They took defensive end Lawrence Sidbury in the fourth round and he could also make an immediate impact.



The Falcons will be hard-pressed to match last season?s 11-5 record even though they might be improved. Atlanta has a tough schedule which includes games against the NFC East and the AFC East. A 10-6 record seems more likely and that might be good enough to get them into the playoffs again this season.
 

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Patriots getting respect
July 4, 2009


It wasn't that long ago that the New England Patriots were a near surefire bet. The sportsbooks couldn't put up a number high enough on them as they steamrolled their way to a perfect 8-0 straight up and 8-0 ATS mark through the first half of the 2007 season.

And while Tom Brady and crew continued on chasing the perfect season in the second half, the tide turned for the sports betting community, as a combination of sky-high pointspreads and opposing team's ability to somewhat gameplan for them, kept things closer. The result was an 8-0 run straight up, but only a 2-6 mark against the spread.

The Pats headed into the playoffs with the goal of booking the best season in NFL history, a perfect 19-0, crowned by a Super Bowl win.

But we all know how that supposed fairy tale ended; New England would march to the Super Bowl only to lose 17-14 as 12.5-point favorites to the New York Giants.


Bad karma seemed to hang over the team at times since that Super Bowl loss, with the team losing Brady last season in Game 1 and then missing the playoffs despite finishing with an 11-5 record (9-7 ATS).

But there is excitement around the team again heading into the 2009 campaign. Tom Brady is back and both bettors and their fans are expecting big things.

Online sportsbook SPORTSBETTING.com has New England listed as the odds-on favorite, at -450, to take the AFC East division, +320 to win the AFC championship and +600 to win the Super Bowl.

The betting action has been steady on New England in all three categories, but particularly to win the AFC East and to win the AFC Championship.

Their Season Win Totals number is high, at 11.5 (so they need to win 12 games for player's to cash their tickets), but bettors still like the "Over" on this one, as 74% of all the betting volume has come in on "Over" 11.5 wins. Hey, they did win 11 games last year with Matt Cassel at QB.

They do have one of the tougher schedules this season though. There cross-over division is the NFC South, which will deliver stiff competition (except for what looks like a weak Tampa Bay squad).

Hitting 12 wins with that schedule is going to be a challenge.

It all starts on Monday night opening weekend. The New England Patriots kick off their 2009 sked as part of the Monday night double-header hosting TO and the Buffalo Bills. SPORTSBETTING.com has the Pats installed as 9.5-point faves and the Total is set at 46.5.

In the last 20 home games against the Bills, New England has been very profitable going 12-7-1 ATS, with an Over/Under record of 6 overs, 13 unders and 1 push.

In the last 20 games overall vs. Buffalo, the numbers have been similar with the Pats going 16-4 SU, 13-6-1 ATS, while there has been a strong "Under" trend, with 4 Overs and 16 Unders.

It has been a tale of two teams when New England has been favored by more than 8-points-the Patriots are 18-2 straight up in that situation but only 8-12 against the spread.

New England is also 12-8 on the Over/Under when listed at more than -8 but is 2-8 O/U in the last 10.

Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and the rest of the New Englanders are looking to regain their swagger?.bettors will be watching them carefully heading into the season.

Realisticly last chance for the Patsies to win it all.
Next year they get hit big with free agents,esp. on the offensive line.

One point of interest is there celebrating 50 years in the AFL/NFL,so expect to see Pat the Patriot alot this year.Should be a fun season,and as a local im looking forward to it.

I will be at the Tennesee game in Sept..I also went to the Coldest plaoff game ever vs Tennesee when McNair was in his prime....great game.

I havent read all your write-ups,but keep them coming!!
 

Lumi

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Denver Broncos preview

Denver Broncos preview

Denver Broncos preview


Football honeymoons are tricky to forecast. New coaches in rebuild mode are usually given a couple of years to get established. Those inheriting better situations are usually afforded less time. Then there's the odd example of honeymoons ending before they begin; remember Carroll Rosenbloom canning George Allen, beginning his second tour of duty with the Rams, just two games into the 1978 preseason slate?
Which brings us to the increasingly curious situation in Denver, where brash Bill Belichick disciple Josh McDaniels has been enlisted by owner Pat Bowlen to turn around Bronco fortunes after things went increasingly stale under Mike Shanahan. The Shan's final act in an otherwise decorated coaching career in the Mile High City was a collapse at the end of the '08 campaign, when Denver pulled a football equivalent of the 1964 Phillies by squandering a 3-game lead in the AFC West with just 3 weeks to go, missing the playoffs entirely. And Bowlen, tired of seeing the Broncos go sideways for much of the decade since their last Super Bowl (and John Elway's retirement), made an abrupt decision to switch course after the pratfall.

A few months later, however, we suspect Bowlen might be having some second thoughts.

That's because the confident (cocky?) 32-year-old McDaniels, fresh off a stint as the Patriots' offensive coordinator, has already shaken Bronco Nation to its core by orchestrating the following moves:

1) Firing much of a front office that nailed its first two draft picks a year ago, OT Ryan Clady & WR/KR Eddie Royal. Promoting Brian Xanders, most recently in charge of salary cap machinations, as the new GM;

2) Making an aborted attempt to acquire buddy Matt Cassel, who blossomed as a frontline NFL QB last year under McDaniels' tutelage in Foxborough. Angering incumbent Bronco QB Jay Cutler in the process;

3) Trading a disgruntled Cutler, a uniquely talented and established 25-year-old QB entering his prime, to the happy-to-oblige Bears for two No. 1s and a less talented replacement, Kyle Orton;

4) Making curious decisions on draft day, including the trade of next year's No. 1 for a 2nd-rounder who turned into a 5'81/2" DB (Wake Forest's Alphonso Smith) neither tall nor fast enough to be a frontline CB.

Maybe those were the bold moves of a personnel genius; maybe they were just pure arrogance. Whatever, most informed AFC observers believe Denver looks worse on paper than the 8-8 squad McDaniels inherited...and not just because of the Cutler trade. Aforementioned draft maneuvering also made it appear as if McDaniels were without a plan; badly needing upgrades on the stop unit, McDaniels instead took Georgia RB Knowshon Moreno with the first pick while defensive studs such as Texas' DE/LB Brian Orapko and Ohio State's DB Malcolm Jenkins were still on the board. Tennessee OLB Robert Ayers was a consolation prize later in the first round, but most insiders thought McDaniels could have done better.

Thus, instead of building an "O" around Cutler, McDaniels will do so in the fall around Orton and ex-Buc Chris Simms, immediately putting to test McDaniels' notion that he can make anyone an overachieving NFL QB. We'll see. Moreno upgrades a RB crew that was decimated (literally) by injuries LY; RB depth (LaMont Jordan & Correll Buckhalter) was also added in free agency. Royal (91 catches LY) & Brandon Marshall (104 catches LY) are a dangerous WR combo, although Marshall's litany of off-field problems and trade demands are making it unlikely that he will be extending his stay much further in the Mile High City. The mobile OL, fortified by Clady's emergence, remains functional, but PK Matt Prater (25-34 FGs LY) lacks some of the accuracy of predecessor Jason Elam.

McDaniels' job with the "O" might be a snap compared to the challenge that's confronting new d.c. Mike Nolan (recently 49er HC), who will re-align the Denver "D" in a 3-4 in hope of stemming the many leaks from a year ago. He'll need FA acquisitions Ronald Field (ex-49ers) and Darrell Reid (ex-Colts) to plug the gaps along the DL and allow LBs such as D.J. Williams (whom Nolan believes could flourish in a move to the inside) to make plays behind them. Another nice FA addition, vet SS Brian Dawkins (via Philly), provides leadership and stability in the 2ndary, although opponents will probably continue to pick on the corner opposite Champ Bailey unless another potentially handy FA pickup, Andre' Goodman (via Miami), rises to the occasion.

Bottom line...Before coming down too hard on McDaniels, it's worth mentioning that he has the right to make whatever changes he feels necessary to get the Broncos back to the postseason. We just suspect that he's needlessly put himself under an immediate gun with some of his moves, the controversial Cutler trade in particular having the potential to boomerang dramatically. And he's given Bowlen unnecessary reason to change his mind quickly about this hire if things really go pear-shaped for the Broncos this fall...or the Bears wind up in the Super Bowl.
 

Lumi

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Browns look to rebuild

Browns look to rebuild

Browns look to rebuild


2009 Cleveland Browns Preview



The Cleveland Browns will look to rebound from what can only be considered a very disappointing 2008 season. Much was expected out of Cleveland last year and they were a major bust. The lack of success cost head coach Romeo Crennel his job so it will be up to Eric Mangini to turn things around. It may not be easy for Mangini considering the Browns don?t have a proven NFL quarterback and a number of other question marks heading into the 2009 season. Cleveland is one of the true longshots in Super Bowl odds at 50-1.



The Browns made a couple of nice picks in the NFL Betting draft getting center Alex Mack and wide receiver Brian Robiskie. Both could provide immediate help this season. Losing tight end Kellen Winslow Jr. hurts but he was oftentimes more trouble than he was worth for the Browns.


The Browns offense will be led by either Derek Anderson or Brady Quinn. Neither inspires a lot of confidence. Anderson has been inconsistent in his career which should not be too surprising considering he was the same way in college. Quinn could be better but he doesn?t have the physical tools that Anderson has. The Browns have Braylon Edwards at wide receiver but he rarely plays up to his talent level. He led the league in drops and continually frustrates the coaching staff. The one thing going for Cleveland this year is that Edwards is in a contract year which means he will actually try this season. Robiskie will probably step right in and take the #2 wide receiver slot. There really isn?t anyone else since Donte? Stallworth was suspended.



The running game is also weak for the Browns. They are counting on Jamal Lewis to carry the ball again. Lewis has seen his best days and simply doesn?t have what it takes to consistently scare defenses in the NFL Betting. He did not have even a single 100 yard rushing game in 2008. Perhaps rookie James Davis will get some playing time in 2009. One positive on offense is the offensive line which has left tackle Joe Thomas and left guard Eric Steinbach. Getting Alex Mack in the draft was a steal as he is considered a future All-Pro. The right side of the line is not as strong though.



The Cleveland defense was just as bad as the offense last year, ranking 26th in yards allowed. The team didn?t address any of their needs so it seems unlikely they will be any better in 2009. D?Qwell Jackson and Eric Wright are two of the better players on a bad defense.



The Browns play in a very tough division and considering the Bengals are improved it is very likely Cleveland will finish last this season in the AFC North yet again.
 

Lumi

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Chicago Bears? 2009 projection: 11-5

Chicago Bears? 2009 projection: 11-5

Chicago Bears? 2009 projection: 11-5
July 19th, 2009

Chicago Bears? 2009 projection: 11-5

Depending on what Brett Favre tells the Vikings by July 30, the Bears could be favored to unseat Minnesota atop the NFC North this year thanks to the NFL?s biggest offseason acquisition: Jay Cutler.
The Bears, 9-7 last year, have been looking for a franchise quarterback for decades ? sorry, Jim McMahon wasn?t one ? and finally appear to have landed him in Cutler. It cost plenty, including two first-round picks and Kyle Orton, but now the Windy City has a Pro Bowler whose arm is strong enough to deal with the windy/wintry conditions at Soldier Field.

Brian-Griffin-Action.gif


Cutler?s arrival doesn?t solve every problem, but it sure seems to cover them up. Chicago?s offensive line still could be a question unless Orlando Pace can stay healthy, and that might be asking a lot. And the receiving corps is a question mark behind Devin Hester. However, you can look for tight end Greg Olsen to be the main beneficiary of Cutler?s throws; I?d be willing to bet Olson is a Pro Bowler this year, and he might help make up for the lack of good receivers. Also expect second-year running back Matt Forte to see plenty of throws, too.

Chicago?s defense still has enough talent to be a major factor, and this team has some of the best special teams in the league, even with Hester only returning punts.

Basically, everything seems in place for a potential Super Bowl run, especially the schedule ? it all depends on the former Denver Bronco signal-caller.

Here is the Bears? 2009 schedule, and we?ll break it down after:

Sept. 13 at Green Bay Packers, 8:20 p.m.

Sept. 20 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, 4:15 p.m.

Sept. 27 at Seattle Seahawks, 4:05 p.m.

Oct. 4 vs. Detroit Lions, 1 p.m.

Week 5: Bye

Oct. 18 at Atlanta Falcons, 8:20 p.m.

Oct. 25 at Cincinnati Bengals, 1 p.m.

Nov. 1 vs. Cleveland Browns, 1 p.m.

Nov. 8 vs. Arizona Cardinals, 1 p.m.

Nov. 12 at San Francisco 49ers, 8:20 p.m.

Nov. 22 vs. Philadelphia Eagles, 8:20 p.m.

Nov. 29 at Minnesota Vikings, 1 p.m.

Dec. 6 vs. St. Louis Rams, 1 p.m.

Dec. 13 vs. Green Bay Packers, 1 p.m.

Dec. 20 at Baltimore Ravens, 1 p.m.

Dec. 28 vs. Minnesota Vikings, 8:20 p.m.

Jan. 3 at Detroit Lions, 1 p.m.

Strength of schedule: 32nd (opponents combined to go 105-149-2, .414, in 2008)

Projected record: 11-5

Bodog over/under total: 8 1/2

Bodog odds to win Super Bowl XLIV: 18/1

Wow, Bodog doesn?t seem to think the Bears will be anywhere near as good as I do, but I certainly recommend the over 8 ? even if I?m being a little overly optimistic.

I believe Chicago will go 2-1 in September. The Bears open on the road for the fifth year in a row and 31st time overall against Green Bay. Chicago has an NFL-high 50 opening-day victories and its .590 winning percentage is fourth-best in the NFL all time. So I think the Bears pull the mini-upset in Green Bay. Not sure Cutler and Co. will be quite in sync enough to handle the Super Bowl champs in Week 2, but the Seahawks shouldn?t pose many problems in Week 3. By the way, that Pittsburgh visit is the Steelers? first since Nov. 5, 1995, ending the longest regular-season drought away from the Windy City for any NFL team.

A 2-1 month in October also appears likely, with games against sad-sacks Detroit and Cincinnati. Chicago could definitely win in Atlanta, as the Bears will be coming off a bye and should have won there last year before a mental breakdown in the final seconds. But let?s say the Falcons take care of business at home.

Cleveland and Arizona won?t be favored in Chicago to start November, and the Bears win both of those. I can see the 49ers pulling the upset after that ? it?s a long trip west for the Bears, and San Francisco coach Mike Singletary will have his club pumped against Singletary?s former team. Then Chicago faces 2008 playoff teams back-to-back for one of only two times all season in Philly and Minnesota. Call it a home-road split, so Chicago is 7-4.

Other than that game at Baltimore, Chicago should be favored in every December game (barring injuries, as always). And I see the Bears winning every game but that Ravens matchup to finish at 11-5 and edge the Vikings for the NFC North, possibly by tiebreaker.

If the postseason bracket falls right ? if the Bears get at least a No. 2 seed ? Chicago looks to me very much like it can reach the NFC Championship Game but probably fall a game short of the Super Bowl.
 

Lumi

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Lions ready for redemption

Lions ready for redemption

Lions ready for redemption


The 2009 Detroit Lions have nowhere to go but up after becoming the first team in NFL betting history to go 0-16. The Lions made a number of changes in the off-season and they will win some games in 2009.



Detroit has a new head coach in Jim Schwartz who seems to have what it takes. He worked under Bill Belichick and spent the last eight years as Tennessee?s defensive coordinator under Jeff Fisher. The Lions have a new defensive coordinator in Gunther Cunningham and he loves pressuring opposing offenses. The offensive coordinator is now Scott Linehan who bombed as a head coach but was very good as an offensive coordinator with Minnesota.

The Lions drafted Matthew Stafford No. 1 overall and he will be competing with Daunte Culpepper for the starting job this season. The Lions would be better off not rushing Stafford so it is up to Culpepper to be ready. The Lions have Kevin Smith at running back and they signed Maurice Morris away from Seattle. The Lions have a great offensive weapon in wide receiver Calvin Johnson. He can instantly impact the NFL odds with his ability. The Lions signed free agent Bryant Johnson to be their No. 2 receiver and they added Dennis Northcutt and Ronald Curry. The Lions also stole Brandon Pettigrew with the 20th overall pick in the draft. He could make a huge impact in his rookie season.



The problems for the Lions are upfront. They have a weak offensive line and the defensive line isn?t much better. The Lions are hoping that Grady Jackson still has something left. The linebackers should be improved this season with the addition of Larry Foote and Julian Peterson. The secondary last year was simply a disaster. The Lions have started over and added three cornerbacks to go along with Keith Smith. They signed free agents Phillip Buchanon and Eric King and got Anthony Henry in a trade. They also got Louis Delmas in the draft. The kicking game for Detroit is solid with Jason Hanson and punter Nick Harris.



The Lions are the longest shot on the board to win the Super Bowl in NFL odds and for good reason but there is hope for Detroit. They made a lot of great off-season moves starting with getting rid of Matt Millen. The coaching staff has been seriously upgraded and Detroit finally made a lot of wise choices in the off-season. The Lions could be a lot better in 2009 than people think although a winning record might be a stretch.
 

Lumi

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Tampa Bay Bucs preview

Tampa Bay Bucs preview

Tampa Bay Bucs preview

Blame it on the Tennessee Volunteers. Or maybe Al Davis.
We're talking about the odd developments involving the Tampa Bay Bucs, which include a perplexing string of events that can be traced to last December 1, the day when UT hired Lane Kiffin to be its new head coach. Knoxville certainly hasn't been the same since, and neither, really, have the Bucs. Follow along.

Shortly after Kiffin took the UT job, he enlisted his dad, the sage and longtime Tampa Bay defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin, to be his new d.c. with the Vols. The elder Kiffin still had at least a month of football to coach with the Bucs, who were cruising along with a 9-3 record atop the NFC South. At the time, it seemed as if Monte would be joining his son after the playoffs. But that's when things started to unravel for Tampa Bay....defensively, in particular. In Monte's 13 years as the team's d.c., his stop units never experienced a worse 4-game stretch than the one that closed the '08 campaign. The Bucs yielded a whopping 123 points and 1544 yards while losing to the Panthers, Falcons, Chargers, and, believe it or not, the lowly Raiders to blow what once seemed a surefire ticket to the postseason. The manner of the collapse prompted the Glazers to hit the eject button on not only HC Jon Gruden, but GM Bruce Allen as well.


The Al Davis connection? It was the old Raider himself who got the Lane Kiffin dominoes falling in the first place when firing him last September, and then his Oakland team applied the coup de grace to the Bucs' disappointing December. We're sure the old man didn't mind his role in Gruden's last act at Tampa Bay.

Still, many observers believe the Glazers panicked when jettisoning Gruden and Allen, moves that caught the inner circles of the NFL by surprise. And frankly, it was a departure from the norm by the Glazers, who have mostly stayed out of the way from the Bucs' on-field doings as they have famously done with the real jewel in their family sports empire, Manchester United, where legendary manager Sir Alex Ferguson has had no interference whatsoever from the family since they bought the club (controversially so) in 2005.

The Glazers, however, might have raised fewer eyebrows had they hired Ferguson himself to succeed Gruden instead of assistant Raheem Morris, who at 32 is the youngest HC in the league (four months and a few days younger than Denver's Josh McDaniels). Morris had just been promoted from 2ndary coach to Monte Kiffin's successor as d.c. at the time he was named HC. His hiring was made more curious by the fact he was part of the staff that saw its troops so thoroughly fold in December. And unlike most HC hires, Morris's experience is mainly as a position coach, with only one year as a coordinator (Kansas State's d.c in 2006). The Glazers also filled Allen's role from within, promoting personnel director Mark Dominik to GM.

Morris inherits a team in transition, with upgrades necessary across a roster that was further depleted by several FA departures. The QB position is up for grabs; with Jeff Garcia (ironically now with the Raiders) and likely Brian Griese out of the picture, the battle is being waged between journeymen Luke McCown & Byron Leftwich, with the winner merely keeping the seat warm until 2010, when first-round draftee Josh Freeman (Kansas State) is expected to take over. New o.c. Jeff Jagodzinski, most recently Boston College's HC, plans to utilize a hybrid of the West Coast offense featuring zone-blocking schemes that will emphasize the run, which ought to be good news for ex-Giant FA Derrick Ward, who supplants the departed Warrick Dunn as the featured back. Re-signing WRs Antonio Bryant (right) and Michael Clayton and acquiring TE Kellen Winslow, Jr. from the Browns should provide ample targets that could be further augmented if the Bucs are really serious about signing Plaxico Burress, as rumored in late spring. Stay tuned for further developments.

Don't expect a lot of changes from Monte Kiffin's Tampa-2 defensive looks under vet d.c. Jim Bates, one of Morris' first additions to the staff. Since the Tampa-2 rarely shows a blitz, however, it's imperative for the DL to create pressure, something the Bucs didn't do with any consistency LY when recording only 29 sacks (ranking 20th). Perhaps USC rookie DE Kyle Moore can provide relief. Bates also must replace departed LBs Derrick Brooks & Cato June; Jermaine Phillips, who has previously only played at safety in the NFL, is penciled in at one OLB spot. Second-year Aqib Talib teams with vet Ronde Barber to form a nasty pair of CBs, although Talib has to be careful after some unwelcome run-ins with teammates (!) on the practice field.

Bottom line...We've seen some unlikely teams make playoff runs lately, and the NFC South is notorious for teams emerging from nowhere to contending status, but we're having a hard time envisioning the Bucs filling those roles. Too much roster upheaval, too many questions at QB, and, frankly, some uncertainties with the new staff make it more likely that Tampa Bay takes a step or two back this fall before challenging again.
 

Lumi

LOKI
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Packers look to push

Packers look to push

Packers look to push

2009 Green Bay Packers Preview



If you are looking for a team in NFL odds to make a serious improvement from last year you need look no further than the Green Bay Packers. Last year the Packers slipped to 6-10 just a year after going 13-3. The 2009 Packers should be a lot more like the 2007 team than last year?s flop.



Last year the Green Bay Packers had to deal with the Brett Favre saga and it seemed to carry over into the regular season. Aaron Rodgers had an excellent year but many other players did not. The big problem for Green Bay last season was a defense that was 22nd in the league in points allowed. The Packers look to be much improved this season with new defensive coordinator Dom Capers. He will bring in his 3-4 defense and get the Packers to play with intensity. ?I just didn?t feel we were headed in the right direction on the defensive side of the ball,? McCarthy says. ?It was really an evaluation of our last three years.?





The offense for Green Bay looks really good. Rodgers threw for 4,038 yards and 28 touchdowns last season with a passer rating of 93.8. Those were far better numbers than Favre put up in New York. The problem for Green Bay is that they had games in which they could have won but didn?t. Seven times the Packers had the ball in the last five minutes with a chance to win and they went 0-7. The Packers did not get a good season out of Ryan Grant in 2008 and they need more out of him this year. The receivers in Green Bay are very talented led by Greg Jennings and Donald Driver. James Jones and Jordy Nelson fill the other two spots. The offensive line is good but the team did draft a couple of players they hope can help in Eastern Michigan's T.J. Lang (fourth round) and South Carolina's Jamon Meredith (fifth round).



The Packers drafted Boston College nose tackle B.J. Raji with the No. 9 overall pick in the draft. He will be a big part of Green Bay?s defense this season. The linebackers look great with A.J. Hawk, Nick Barnett and Aaron Kampman who is moving from defensive end to outside linebacker. The team also got Clay Matthews at No. 26 overall in the draft and he may start right away. The secondary is deep and experienced with cornerbacks Charles Woodson and Al Harris plus they have safety Nick Collins who made the Pro Bowl. Kicker Mason Crosby led the league in scoring but the team does need a new punter.
 
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