Epic and controversial last lap here last year with Kyle spinning out with the lead and Keselowski and Ambrose banging doors all the way to the finish.
Pretty much expect the usual suspects to run well this weekend. No surprise here as Ambrose will be the favorite. Probably at +350 or so. He's raced here 5 times with his worst finish being 3rd and he's won here the last 2 races. Keselowski has finished 2nd here the last 2 races behind Ambrose. Jeff Gordon has won more road races than anyone and Stewart has quite a few road course wins himself. However Gordon's average finish in his last 5 Glen races is 22nd. That does include though a spin out last year while running 9th (finished 21st) and a costly spin out on the last lap a few years ago while leading, so don't read too much into that average. He hasn't won here since I think 2001 but the speed seems to be back in that car. Fast in Pocono. 3 top 10's in his last 4 overall races.
Stewart's last 5 average finishes here is 11.2 including a win and a 2nd. He finished 27th the last 2 years here but he's very good at the Glen. Also running well lately with 3 top 10's in his last 4 overall races and 5 wins at Watkins Glen.
I really liked what I heard out of Juan Montoya when he sat in last friday on The Morning Drive. He was supremely confident in his car for the Glen. They tested Road Atlanta recently and they were running 2nd at Sonoma when he ran out of fuel at the end of the race. I don't know if he would've caught Truex Jr. but it was still a solid run nevertheless. He said he expects them to be stellar (he used that word) at Watkins Glen based on their test and how well he ran in Sonoma. Montoya won here in 2010
In Kyle Busch's last 5 races here he's averaged a 4.4 starting position and a 4.6 finishing position. And remember he was running first last year on the last lap when he spun out (controversial oil on the track that a lot of driver's claimed had come out of the 47 car when he blew an engine a lap or so earlier). He will be a factor this weekend. I will be playing Kyle.
Another guy who I expect to be strong this weekend is Kurt Busch. It's hard to gauge what his opening odds are going to be because he doesn't have the best finishing average here. But last year he wasn't in a good ride. 3 years ago with Penske he finished 2nd. They tested here after Indy which I think will be big for that team. This team has been fast all year, this team finished 9th last year with Regan Smith, and Kurt has really excelled at Sonoma and loves the road courses. I think he'll be a major factor in that 78 car this weekend and I'm hoping he has some decent odds. I'm thinking Ambrose, Juan, Tony, Keselowski, Gordon and Kyle will all be favored above him so his odds could be pretty nice. Maybe like +1200 or even +1500 or something, I'll jump on that if it comes out.
Obviously Brad has run real well here the last 2 years so I'd factor him in as well. Like I said he finished 2nd the last 2 years and damn near won last year.
One total sleeper this weekend will be AJ Allmendinger in the 47 car. He also tested here a few weeks ago. He's run here 4 times and has finishes of 8, 4, 13 and 11. He won the nationwide road course race earlier this year at Road America. Granted that was with Penske and it was nationwide and honestly I don't think that he's going to have the car to do it in the 47, but something to consider if the odds are long, which they probably will be. The 47 is the car Ambrose drove to a 2 and 3rd place finish in 2009 and 2010 so it has shown speed in this race in the past.
20 of the 30 Glen cup races have been won from the top 5 starting positions, including 9 from the pole.
On that note, Jimmie Johnson's average start in his last 9 races at the Glen is 4th, including 2 poles. He finished 3rd last year. He has 6 top 10's in his 11 races here, including 3rd twice. This for a guy not exactly known for his road racing ability early in his career. He's since won at Sonoma. The guy conquers all his weak points. Remember when he was just awful at Bristol, he's since won there. It's not a matter of if he wins at Watkins Glen but more likely a matter of when. He's been lightning fast all year, head and shoulders above the competition in my opinion. Very impressed with his bounce back last week after blowing a tire to finish 13th and actually pad his enormous lead in the point standings. If it's even possible for him to be overlooked, this will be the weekend where it happens. Might be some serious value in JJ considering he's the favorite just about every race but he won't be for this one. Food for thought.
The guys I'm really looking hard at this weekend will be Montoya, Kyle and Kurt and I'm sure I'll take a shot at Jimmy if his odds are decent. Ambrose will be a factor but his odds will suck. He probably should've finished 3rd last year and not won, and he wasn't as strong as expected at Sonoma this year.
Pretty much expect the usual suspects to run well this weekend. No surprise here as Ambrose will be the favorite. Probably at +350 or so. He's raced here 5 times with his worst finish being 3rd and he's won here the last 2 races. Keselowski has finished 2nd here the last 2 races behind Ambrose. Jeff Gordon has won more road races than anyone and Stewart has quite a few road course wins himself. However Gordon's average finish in his last 5 Glen races is 22nd. That does include though a spin out last year while running 9th (finished 21st) and a costly spin out on the last lap a few years ago while leading, so don't read too much into that average. He hasn't won here since I think 2001 but the speed seems to be back in that car. Fast in Pocono. 3 top 10's in his last 4 overall races.
Stewart's last 5 average finishes here is 11.2 including a win and a 2nd. He finished 27th the last 2 years here but he's very good at the Glen. Also running well lately with 3 top 10's in his last 4 overall races and 5 wins at Watkins Glen.
I really liked what I heard out of Juan Montoya when he sat in last friday on The Morning Drive. He was supremely confident in his car for the Glen. They tested Road Atlanta recently and they were running 2nd at Sonoma when he ran out of fuel at the end of the race. I don't know if he would've caught Truex Jr. but it was still a solid run nevertheless. He said he expects them to be stellar (he used that word) at Watkins Glen based on their test and how well he ran in Sonoma. Montoya won here in 2010
In Kyle Busch's last 5 races here he's averaged a 4.4 starting position and a 4.6 finishing position. And remember he was running first last year on the last lap when he spun out (controversial oil on the track that a lot of driver's claimed had come out of the 47 car when he blew an engine a lap or so earlier). He will be a factor this weekend. I will be playing Kyle.
Another guy who I expect to be strong this weekend is Kurt Busch. It's hard to gauge what his opening odds are going to be because he doesn't have the best finishing average here. But last year he wasn't in a good ride. 3 years ago with Penske he finished 2nd. They tested here after Indy which I think will be big for that team. This team has been fast all year, this team finished 9th last year with Regan Smith, and Kurt has really excelled at Sonoma and loves the road courses. I think he'll be a major factor in that 78 car this weekend and I'm hoping he has some decent odds. I'm thinking Ambrose, Juan, Tony, Keselowski, Gordon and Kyle will all be favored above him so his odds could be pretty nice. Maybe like +1200 or even +1500 or something, I'll jump on that if it comes out.
Obviously Brad has run real well here the last 2 years so I'd factor him in as well. Like I said he finished 2nd the last 2 years and damn near won last year.
One total sleeper this weekend will be AJ Allmendinger in the 47 car. He also tested here a few weeks ago. He's run here 4 times and has finishes of 8, 4, 13 and 11. He won the nationwide road course race earlier this year at Road America. Granted that was with Penske and it was nationwide and honestly I don't think that he's going to have the car to do it in the 47, but something to consider if the odds are long, which they probably will be. The 47 is the car Ambrose drove to a 2 and 3rd place finish in 2009 and 2010 so it has shown speed in this race in the past.
20 of the 30 Glen cup races have been won from the top 5 starting positions, including 9 from the pole.
On that note, Jimmie Johnson's average start in his last 9 races at the Glen is 4th, including 2 poles. He finished 3rd last year. He has 6 top 10's in his 11 races here, including 3rd twice. This for a guy not exactly known for his road racing ability early in his career. He's since won at Sonoma. The guy conquers all his weak points. Remember when he was just awful at Bristol, he's since won there. It's not a matter of if he wins at Watkins Glen but more likely a matter of when. He's been lightning fast all year, head and shoulders above the competition in my opinion. Very impressed with his bounce back last week after blowing a tire to finish 13th and actually pad his enormous lead in the point standings. If it's even possible for him to be overlooked, this will be the weekend where it happens. Might be some serious value in JJ considering he's the favorite just about every race but he won't be for this one. Food for thought.
The guys I'm really looking hard at this weekend will be Montoya, Kyle and Kurt and I'm sure I'll take a shot at Jimmy if his odds are decent. Ambrose will be a factor but his odds will suck. He probably should've finished 3rd last year and not won, and he wasn't as strong as expected at Sonoma this year.
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