WayneWonder NFL Playoffs

[WayneWonder]

Regular season record:

Sides, totals: 27-18 (60%)
Props: 2-5 (25.8%)
Teasers: 2-2 (50%)

Ah, this week marks the start of the playoffs. The season goes by quicker and quicker each year. As my record shows, I have had mixed results this season. There were times that I was worried that somebody was going to pull a Kathy Bates, break my legs, and turn me into James Caan from "Misery". Fortunately, I nailed a few late "makeup" bets and escaped realtively unscathed, even posting a mild profit. My mom didn't even suspect anything when I asked her for an extra $500 because I wanted to "join a gym."

I don't have any rules or systems that I follow in making my picks, especially in the playoffs. Trust your first instincts over everything else. So onto the picks...

Kansas City @ Indianapolis
The Colts enter this year's playoffs facing a lot of skeptics. Over the past few years, they have been the favorite to finally win the Super Bowl and have ended up breaking more hearts than Miss Havesham on South Park. Many pundits expect Larry Johnson (111.8 yards p/g) to rush all over the Colts D (173.0 allowed p/g). Fair assumption. I mentioned in an earlier post that LJ has carried an avg. of 28 times over the L7 games and hasn't had a week off since Week Three so fatigue may be a factor. The Colts should be able to shred a Chiefs D that allowed opponents to complete 62.1% of their passes and allowed 20 points or more in 9 of 16 games.

Colts -6.5

Dallas @ Seattle

Both teams should have no trouble scoring in this matchup. Dallas has avgd 25.6 pp/g since Romo has taken over at QB. They feature one of the NFC's best rush attacks at 121.0 yp/g. Much has been made about Seattle and their home-field advantage, but they were just 5-3 at home, losing their last two. They beat St. Louis by just two, otherwise they were looking at a .500 home record. The Seahawks may also be missing up to three of their DB's for Saturday's matchup. The Cowboys should be able to bounce back after losing B2B games for the first time this season. They have too many offensive weapons in Owens, Witten, Barber and Glenn for the injury depleted Seahawks to keep up.

Dallas +3
Over 46.5

 

[WayneWonder]

New York Giants @ Philadelphia

The Giants came back from a 24-7 fourth quarter deficit to beat the Eagles in OT week two. They led Philadelphia 22-21 with just under 7:00 mintues remaining in the rematch. They have to feel as though they can play with the Eagles.

Despite Tiki's career night against Washington, Big Blue would be wise to let Manning loose. He has completed 71% of his passes for 653 yards in two games vs. Philly this season. He had eight completions of 20+ yards. Despite 3 INTs he has a 91.1 QB rating against Philadelphia. Eli was blamed for his poor play over the last few games of the season by Tom Coughlin but a close look at his numbers in Dec. tell a different story. He completed 56.3% of his passes for 899 yds with a 7/3 TD/INT ratio. If the Giants can protect the ball you have to think they have a real shot at an upset this weekend.

The Eagles have been dominant though against their NFC East foes this season. They are 4-1-1 ATS against their division and are averaging 28 points per in those contests. They have scored at least 21 each of the six games. They have also scored at least 21 in each of Garcia's starts this season. The Eagles should be fired up for this game and their starters are coming off what was essentially a bye week against Atlanta. Many of the guys got a much needed week of rest after learning of the Dallas loss.

The Giants have allowed 24 points on avg. away from home. Both games between these teams went over the posted total and I don't see a reason why this shouldn't as well.

Over 46.5

 

[hedgehog]

I like all of your plays!

good luck

 

[clark]

i'll say you have balls putting any money on manning! worst qb rating since 2004 of any current qb(72.4) ! philly owned giants in 1st game but let up at half,in second game philly put 8play 80 yard drive together when gmen needed to stop them,when it was elis turn to respond he throws pick six! philly is gonna be a mad house and team always responds to crowd with big games!i'll take your over though cause of previous games! best of luck ww!

 

[WayneWonder]

Clark, I am not backing the Giants in this game...only the over. I feel as though they have a shot if they let Manning get into a rythym early.

 

[WayneWonder]

NY Jets @ New England

Even Karate Kid III wasn't as highly anticipated as the third installment in this division rivalry. The teams split the season series, with each winning on their opponents field. There is a little bad blood between the coaches as well which should just add to the excitement of this matchup.

The Patriots were without Rodney Harrison and Eugene Wilson in the Jets upset victory. Both players are expected to miss this week's game as well. The key for the Jets was their ability to sustain long drives against the Pats. They were able to put together two 15+ play scoring drives and benefited from a short field for the game-winning TD. New England forced them into 18 third downs, but allowed the Jets to convert 11 of them. It is incredibly disheartening to allow to routinely stop teams on first and second downs but allow them to convert on third to keep drives alive.

New England is 6-1 (5-2 ATS) since their loss to the Jets. They have turned it on offensively as well, scoring an average of 26 points per over that span. The Pats allow the second fewest points in the league at 14.81. The run game really came alive against Tennessee, going for 171 yards, and an average of 129 over their L4. The Jets are awful against the run, ranking 24th at 130.2 y/pg. In their six losses, the Jets have surrendered 982 yards on the ground (163.6 p/g). If New England can run the ball, they should run away.

Just a few more trends...
Brady is 23-1 on artificial turf.
Brady is 9-2 as a starter vs. Jets.
Jets are just 2-7 ATS against winning teams.

Patriots -9.5