This has been talked about to death.......but there are still some non-believers out there. Most of these are "public" players and folks who don't believe in playing a system blindly can actually work.
Here goes......
"When a ranked team (in the top 25) is an underdog or a pick-em against a non-ranked team, take the non-ranked team."
I am not a great handicapper.
My money management is not the greatest.
However, I NEVER pass up this play in college hoops or football. These plays have never let me down and win far more often than they lose. I wish I tracked it from when when I first started playing it in 1999.
However, I have tracked it (and made money) so far in 2005.
Here are the updated results in this calender year:
1/5 Vandy -2.5 over Alabama (win)
1/5 Villanova -4 over West Virginia (win)
1/8 Ohio State -3.5 over Iowa (win)
1/8 St. Mary's -pick'em over Gonzaga (win)
1/10 Oklahoma -4.5 over Uconn (win)
YTD: 5-0.
tonight: play on Arkansas -5 over Alabama
As you can see, all of these unranked teams defated ranked teams. Some people who use this system change their guidelines a bit. Hey...whatever works for you!
Just so I don't 2nd guess myself...I have these simple, yet strict rules on these wagers...no exceptions:
-I go by the opening line Vegas puts out. Example: St. Mary's opened as a pick vs. Gonzaga. Public bet Gonzaga up to -1.5. Vegas knows more than the public. As long as the oddsmakers didn't open Gonzaga as a FAVORITE...it is a play for me on the un-ranked team.
-Some people who like this system also play the unranked team in a role of small underdog...up to +3. Not me! That defeats it's purpose. The line is already telling you that the ranked team is better. I use only unranked faves and pick'ems.
-I never think. No handicapping..no gut feelings. Each play is for $1,000 for me. I never alter from that amount.
-I don't play the faves on the money-line, no matter how tempting that might be. I just have a few offshores where I play the game early and shop for a half-point difference.
-Play it early in the day or on the overnight.
This angle is one of those situations where most square bettors say: "Give me UConn and those points! I can't believe they are ranked and getting points from an Oklahoma team that is notr even ranked."
Then, usually, the line on the unranked team goes higher and higher throughout the day, while the public continues to pour their money on the ranked team. The books know this, but the amount of square action just might outdue the sharp action. When the public loves one team, yet the line moves in the opposite direction.......well, you know the rest.
-What if a team climbs into the Top 25 on Monday afternoon and they are playing (and favored or pick) that night against another ranked-team?
Since I make these plays on Sunday night (before the new rankings come out), it is still a play. Many squares last night did not know that Oklahoma actually became ranked at No. 25 just hours before tip-off. I did notknow this either...nor did I care.....since the ORIGINAL line was posted BEFORE Oklahoma was announced at cracking the polls.
I am a slow typer..and I need to take a break and eat dinner. I will finish my thoughts in a little on this topic in this thread.
Here goes......
"When a ranked team (in the top 25) is an underdog or a pick-em against a non-ranked team, take the non-ranked team."
I am not a great handicapper.
My money management is not the greatest.
However, I NEVER pass up this play in college hoops or football. These plays have never let me down and win far more often than they lose. I wish I tracked it from when when I first started playing it in 1999.
However, I have tracked it (and made money) so far in 2005.
Here are the updated results in this calender year:
1/5 Vandy -2.5 over Alabama (win)
1/5 Villanova -4 over West Virginia (win)
1/8 Ohio State -3.5 over Iowa (win)
1/8 St. Mary's -pick'em over Gonzaga (win)
1/10 Oklahoma -4.5 over Uconn (win)
YTD: 5-0.
tonight: play on Arkansas -5 over Alabama
As you can see, all of these unranked teams defated ranked teams. Some people who use this system change their guidelines a bit. Hey...whatever works for you!
Just so I don't 2nd guess myself...I have these simple, yet strict rules on these wagers...no exceptions:
-I go by the opening line Vegas puts out. Example: St. Mary's opened as a pick vs. Gonzaga. Public bet Gonzaga up to -1.5. Vegas knows more than the public. As long as the oddsmakers didn't open Gonzaga as a FAVORITE...it is a play for me on the un-ranked team.
-Some people who like this system also play the unranked team in a role of small underdog...up to +3. Not me! That defeats it's purpose. The line is already telling you that the ranked team is better. I use only unranked faves and pick'ems.
-I never think. No handicapping..no gut feelings. Each play is for $1,000 for me. I never alter from that amount.
-I don't play the faves on the money-line, no matter how tempting that might be. I just have a few offshores where I play the game early and shop for a half-point difference.
-Play it early in the day or on the overnight.
This angle is one of those situations where most square bettors say: "Give me UConn and those points! I can't believe they are ranked and getting points from an Oklahoma team that is notr even ranked."
Then, usually, the line on the unranked team goes higher and higher throughout the day, while the public continues to pour their money on the ranked team. The books know this, but the amount of square action just might outdue the sharp action. When the public loves one team, yet the line moves in the opposite direction.......well, you know the rest.
-What if a team climbs into the Top 25 on Monday afternoon and they are playing (and favored or pick) that night against another ranked-team?
Since I make these plays on Sunday night (before the new rankings come out), it is still a play. Many squares last night did not know that Oklahoma actually became ranked at No. 25 just hours before tip-off. I did notknow this either...nor did I care.....since the ORIGINAL line was posted BEFORE Oklahoma was announced at cracking the polls.
I am a slow typer..and I need to take a break and eat dinner. I will finish my thoughts in a little on this topic in this thread.
gl
