weAk 10 PLICKS

Jimboski

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Wrap up for week 9 - Terrible, just terrible.

Oh yeah, easy to post Cruncher/me record for that dang week - 1 and 4 on the regular listing I wrote. I didn't post either of the 2 parlays I played but for the recordkeepers... add 2 mo losahs.

Illinois puts up 10 pts and that's looks about right, but them BADgers can only muster up 24 pts. vs. the absolute worst team by far IMO opinion (after watching them vs. W.Kentucky in week 2) that I've seen this season and I do watch plenty of the "Creme Puff" teams too. Yeah, Illi. looks like they improved since week 2 but thems had to do PLENTY and I mean PLENTY of improving for me to think about not fading thems.

Little did I know that a bigger headache woud follow with Iowa, who was controlling and covering the whole freakin game UNTIL the final minutes and blow the cover. Did that game ever suck? Those two plicks were the only bets that were over 1 unit for me last week too.

I got a feeling that a lot of really good cappers got CREAMED in week 9 cause there really wasn't any rhyme, reason, or logic for the ATS results of so many of the games. It kinda makes ya think that no matter if you studied ALL the games of every week, what crystal ball you used, computer or insider you followed - your chances of coming out ahead is like 40-45%. Less for the weak cappers... . .. . MAYBE, if that does makes a difference ?

The cruncher is designed to find covering favorites and for 2 weeks now it's doing a much better job of finding covering DOGS. That is, the PLICKS should come from the BOTTOM PLAYS of the Cruncher report which means IT'S LOWEST CONFIDENCE FOR THE FAVORITE TO COVER.

Let's try this....

I'm gonna post it's top 4 FAVORITES to cover, just in case it gets back on track for week 10 AND it's 3 DOGS to cover. Three of five of it's bestest DOG plicks covered each week and at least 1 won outright each week . That is, during the past 3 weeks not the whole season.

For me, I check out it's 10 top plays and throw out around 5 of them before playing anything. If enough MJers chime in here and want me to list the 5 that I come up with that I'll definitely be on after doing that part... I'll try to get back and post them. After my record last week - I don't expect anybody to and still can't believe that almost 900 "readers" actually visited my thread. :shrug:

One mo thang
This is just an idea I'm sharing. I like to play at least 2 parlays every week, either 2 or 3 (rarely 4) teamers. For 3 teamers or more, at least ONE of the plicks has to be in a different category. For me that different category of sport is usually either tennis or NFL, or college baskets. no baesebawl for me. I never considered :00011 for finding a plick!

And here's why - well, say your sport is footsball. And you're going for a nice, big, fat, FIVE TEAMER. Now, are your chances better with - say playing FIVE college footsball games or THREE college games along with 2 NFLers on SUNDAY? I really like to take a shot with games falling on different days too but that part isn't as important. I realize that this option may not be available for everybody, but it sure has helped me.

So far I got only one bet going and no single plays for this week yet. I really like to start off the week with a "Mickey Mouse" weekday team. My record ain't that great with these, but it can get you off to a start sometimes. It's...

Pending 3 Team Parlay
Pending 11/5/17 1:00pm NFL Football 452 Philadelphia Eagles -6 -150* vs Denver Broncos
Win 11/2/17 9:15pm College Football 315 Idaho +18? -110* vs Troy
Pending 11/4/17 3:00pm College Football 355 Georgia State -3 -140* vs Georgia Southern

I bought a point on the Eagles and Ga. St.; always take them down on important nos. in parlays. Idaho was only my own play, no Cruncher involved with that one which is why I didn't post it. Just too many pts. for Troy to give to a reasonably decent team like Idaho who's been playing better than one would expect.

G.L., Readers/Visitors/MJers

That's the sermon for this week and I'll add plays when I can.
 

Jimboski

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Here we/ME goes....

Here we/ME goes....

Not many plicks this week and that's cause I chopped off plenty of the Cruncher's plicks. All I can "say" is this week's results better be a BIG improvement from last weeks considering the time it took to come up with them, considered a lot of factors.

These are severely FILTERED (you know like, cream of the PLICKS) and represents a 50/50 effort from me and the ole Cruncher.

Maryland - 2 1/2 vs. ROOTgers. I took it off the line of -3. I watched the Terps last week vs. Indy and they looked really good as a straight up M.L. winnah as 6+ dogs. They were trailing by 2 touchdowns in that game too and that's a very good sign. Despite they don't seem to know which QB AMONG 3 OF THEM to start, I think ANY one of them is better than Rutgers has. They have an excellent wide receiver, think his name is Moore, who leads their conference with EIGHT TDs this season.

Rutgers could only muster up 14 pts. in each of it's last two games. Vs. Mich may be excusable but not so much vs. Purdue IMO. Their yardage deficit in EACH of those games was over 250 yds. Last time they faced Maryland was late last yr. and Maryland was in control throughout most of that game and won 31 - 13.

Lastly, both teams faced a couple of the BIG GUNS this season and Maryland held up much better. How bout, Rootgers vs. OS... ah, 0 -56.:scared
Scarlet Knights were at home .. . .like that matters.

[b ]Iowa + 18 [/b] vs. Ohio St.: Cruncher is so/so with this one, I like the Hawkeyes a lot . I don't see any of the BIG BOYS covering that spread against the defense Iowa has. I just might give a Money Liner on this play as well. Dang, I just checked and +650 isn't the kind of number I expected. :mj04:

Iowa/ Oh St. UNDER 52 1/2 : Blame me for this one; Chrunchy has nuthin to do with this play. BTW, in addition to their defense, they employ excellent clock management as well.

Tulane - 5 1/2 vs. Cinncy: Never thought I'd see the day I'm on this team. This years' version of the Green "whatever" (Hornets? Wave? Boogers??) is better than any I've seen in the past.

Cal -7 vs. Oregon St. : reasons for this plick? I think the readers just gotta know reasons for this one. I'll give yas a hint.... . . . "Stink Bombs"; I'll leave it at that. Gotta git some shut-eye.

G.L. Visitors, Mjers, and :0030
 

Jimboski

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where we're at now, make that me anyways,

where we're at now, make that me anyways,

Thanks for stopping in jp, ALWAYS good see somebody reads our threads.

Hope some readers and YOU may have seen how I screwed up on the formatting for the Iowa/ O. St. game. I intended to make that BOLD type. Multiple units on that + 18 1/2 liner that closed at +21, See the part where I was deciding to take the Money Liner (think it may have closed at +700).... and OF COURSE I DID NOT DO THAT.. FLUCK!!! But I did load up a bit on the +18 1/2 line bet. :)

Now, all thems gotta do is not get beat by 32+ pts. in the 2nd half. :scared: :).

Hopefully YOU can see I just tell it like it is so I think I'm safe mentioning that so far this week is working out cause I also played two of the Cruncher picks that I didn't post cause they were "IFFY". Thems were Purdue vs. the team that I believe is FADEABLE every week ever since I saw them play in week 2. Other play was Wisconsin. Both cashed and I wish I woulda included these NON "Creme of the Crop of PLICKS" in my listing. Bottom line is that the Chruncher is doing just fine this week after last week's fiasco . Maybe we gotta play the plicks like the stock market.. you know, the ole
ml3q36uce9uf.gif
bull crap.

HOLY SHEET, Iowa just scored AGAIN... 38 - 17 over O.S.
Terps (-2 1/2) and Ruts are now tied with a full 4th quarter to go. :(.
Can you believe it - O. St. just turned over the ball at their 20 yd. line and it's 48 - 17 after the field goal.


Only posted final so far is in the parlay and buying down that pt. did the trick, Ga. ST -3. Now, for the flukin NFLer. Sure as hell won't be the first time a M.L. NFLer favorite screwed up a "woulda won" 3, 4, or even FIVE team parlay on me. Ironically, the worsted by far was a "woulda won" 5 teamer where I needed the EAGLES to just win as a huge favorite and the bastages lost. That was back in the days of McNab. That one was a decent size bet too.

Hope you doing well jp.
 
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jpblitz

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I watched an unranked Iowa team beat Oh st in Kinnick, 2004. for some reason this one had a similar feel. If i remember right one of the first times we saw Troy Smith take center. Good call, if only the green wave could have pulled through with a TD on their last drive......GL Sunday
 

Jimboski

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jp

jp

I posted a reply in your "Visitor Message" page. It has more ABOUT footsball and not about bets so it's prob. better not to waste my reader's time posting it here.

It's gonna be a GOOD Saturday even though a couple of losahs look like they're gonna close out the day. Hey, what else is new?

Have a good rest of the weekend.
 

Jimboski

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Wrap it UP

Wrap it UP

Posted bets:

Maryland -2 1/2 - Losah! Maryland scored at least one TD in each quarter, EXCEPT in the last 1/4 and Rootgers rings up 14 in the 4th quarter. I'm starting to get used to this last quarter crap. :(

Iowa/Ohio St. UNDER 52 1/2: How could somebody be sooo right and sooo wrong. Still amazed at the no. of pts. up on the board with these two superior defensive teams.

Iowa - 18 - BIG TIME wiener! This was the only multiple units (2 1/2) bet I made and it paid off. Tellyas, BOTH Iowa teams really deserve bettors respect even despite State's loss today vs. a tough WV. team at home. No, I didn't do anything with that game. Note that they were making a move in the 2nd half while keeping WV down to ZERO pts. in the 2nd half. These two teams are OVERACHIEVERS not meaning they're playing "over their head" , but meaning they are proving how much better they really are than cappers/"experts" think they are. Both are SOLID teams.
I'm still pissed about NOT going along with the "crazy" idea of taking a shot with a money line bet on this game because of the stingy (IMO) payoff, UGH! It's tough to go with a 18+ pt. DOG.
This guy ->:mj04: is now this guy --> :00x25

Tulane -5 1/2: Losah! I didn't watch any of this game. No excuses here.

Cal -7: Wiener! Same comments as the Tulane game. This play was mostly a fade on Oregon St. but, partially due the fact that Cal. has very significantly improved its defense over previous years too.

Record - a mediocre 2-2 as far as listing here goes.

I guess I won't be so tough on Chrunchy next week a not reject so many of it's plicks. I don't have the exact no. yet, but I'm sure Chrunchy went way over 50% covers this week. There were 3 that Chrunch kinda liked, Old Dominion, Wisc., and Purdue. Wound up playing 2 of them at 1 stinkin unit apiece. . THIS TIME, I made a good/lucky move, made a late decision to go along with Wisc. and Purdue. So OD got tossed out. Sure glad I did cause -

Hah, GET THIS ... . . how bout a team covering the spread and didn't score a single point :0039

Check it out, Readers. OD vs. Charlotte.

Be careful with them NFLers today. G.L.
 
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