weasel droppings

[ppabart]

17-11-2 ytd....2-2 last week

last week was wasted by an int return and a punt return for td`s with roughly 5 minutes remaining in the seattle game...whatever...

this,imo,is the strongest wagering card from top to bottom of the year... lots of crappy teams in good situations

1)san diego+6...right now,imo,green bay is a tad overrated(shocking,i know).....rodgers is on another planet,granted...he`s carrying this team... ..but they have little ground game(25th)...their defense is poor(25th ypr and 23rd yppa)......you can`t continue to keep covering large spreads on the road with this kind of statistical baggage...

san diego is coming off 3 consecutive road games(love that) and i expect rivers to be totally focused after shitting the bed and personally losing the game at k.c.(loss fell squarely on rivers)...

matter of fact,i`m playing this on the moneyline...1st loss for green bay...





2)steelers -3(-125)...not much to say here...it pains me to do this but it appaears these are 2 teams heading in different directions...steelers hitting their stride after a shaky start....the offensive line showing more cohesion....the ravens now struggling with poor teams after starting strong..even at home(which is highly unusual)...and their offensive line?....old and slow...aside from a flashy game vs the lowly rams,the 2nd wideout position has been a real problem for the ravens...no consistency...


throw in home field,a large differential at qb,and a large dose of revenge and it all spells steelers...

hate doing it but you can`t wager with your heart....




3)tenn-2( -120)...bengal defense has been amazing,period(but tennessee`s has been pretty decent also)..and they aren`t facing an offensive juggernaut here ..

cincy`s success has been equal parts great defense and a good deal of smoke and mirrors......i can remember at least 2 turnovers for touchdowns(and one special teams td) very late in games that shaded the result ....and flat out,their offense is shaky...

chris johnson splitting carries with javon ringer(who i love)...a slashing back who, i think ,would start for many teams...i think this also helps johnson....takes the pressure off and gives him a goose...

tennessee is on their 3rd straight home game(excellent set-up)...cincy winning ugly...the public loves them here...and i love that...




4)washington +4...bucking another public team...the skins looked dreadful last week on the road vs buffalo..they were shut out....are they this bad?...no....and theres a 36-15 trend that points to this scenario being a favorable one for the skins...

san fran is another public darling...they`ve been successful traveling west to east this year...but not this time...i still have real questions about alex smith...and they`re winning directly correlates to their turnover ratio(+10),not necessarily superb play...

harbaugh is the sexy,fiery coach...i predict they overlook a skins team coming home desperate for a win to remain relevant in the nfc east...




5)indy+7...this one i almost didn`t play because the respective injury issues..julio jones coming back...the colts have numerous injuries...if not for these issues,i was gonna touch the moneyline...still might...

but the colts have been competitive at home...and in truth,the falcons are a statistically mediocre team..high profile,yes...but statistically mediocre....

indy coming in off 3 straight road games..who likes this clusterfuck of a team getting 7 at home?....me that`s who....that`s a play for me...




6)jets +3....why?...the bills` d and their shoutout of washington last week...stats and situations are what i look for..and this one qualifies...

the bills defense is bad..period..regardless of last week`s shutout..27th vs the run and 20th vs the pass...the jets` d`?...12th and 10 respectively....

i know byes haven`t been a favorable set-up this year...but i think here it might actually help the jets...

bills another team living off the turnover(see the patriot win).....i have always liked the jets better as road dogs...

if the hot sexy teams continue to be hot and sexy,i`ll go down in flames(along with the books)....if it turns out that this is one of those "the public gets f-cked" weekends,i should do o.k......

g.l.

#1: check
#2: check
#3: check
#4: can't do it
#5: check
#6: big check! PAYCHECK!

GL Wease!!! :toast:

 

[gardenweasel]

went from 17-11-2 to 18-16-2 in one total meltdown of a week in which the public scorched the man...

whattaya gonna do?...

1)bungles+4.5...
2)bills+5
3)skins+4
4)seattle+7(-125)
5)atlanta pick

small totals plays
6)under41 bungles/steelers
7)under 38 colts/jags
8)under 38 dolphins/ skins
9) under 37 browns/rams

10)teaser:bungles+14.5/bills+15/skins+14
11)teaser:browns-rams under 47/colts-jags under 48/steelers-bungles under 51

too bummed out about last week to give rationale...all in...

 

[gardenweasel]

23-21-2 ytd.....

spinning wheels...but love this card....

1)minny pick...just like the set-up here....we have the 3rd ranked running offense vs the second to last ranked run defense....thus,adrian peterson takes the heat off ponder....

on the other side of the ball,the raiders strength is their ground game(5th) but they are without darren mcfadden(top 5 rb)...and minny`s run defense is also #5 in the league...

palmer is looking better,but if he`s not on the field?(you get my drift)...


2)buffalo+3....everybody off the buffalo bandwagon and on the miami bandwagon(except for weasel)...and except for the fact that miami is a dreadful home fave(3-30 ats last 33)....i think that fitzpatrick has a mini-bounceback this week vs the #23 ranked pass defense...buffalo steps down in class this week...i`m taking the points...

3)10.5 pt teaser...browns-jags under 44.5/bungles+18/bungles-ravens under 51.......

4)carolina+7 ...contrarian play...bounceback for the panthers...no best for detroit...

*non-record longshot parlay...san diego+5/ravens -300 moneyline/browns-jags under 34.5 at roughly 4-1...

 

[gardenweasel]

25-25-2(lol)...

http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?t=463481

(these were my thanksgiving plays that i integrated into my record)...

i`ve had some tough beats this year...but i`m not complaining....as a great man once said,"pick up a fricking oar and stfu !"....

1)browns+8(-130)...i honestly don`t get the line...browns with a solid defense...hillis back....mccoy looking better as the year progresses...the natural rivalry...no ray lewis...and the recent history of the ravens falling flat on their faces playing a perceived weak sister after a high profile win......can you say trap?....particularly after the ravens played possibly their best all-round game of the year?....they`ve proven 3 times already this year that they`re mental midgets when it comes to preparing in this situation...wish i could make this more than 1 play...

following the pattern(we play the long game)...

2)10 pt tease...browns +18/under 48.5 houston-atlanta/skins+13.......(see above regarding browns/ravens)....check the stats on houston`s offense last week after leinart went down...houston has the #1 defense in the league...skins are getting healthier on offense and build on last weekend`s win...the jets in disarray...

3)atl/houst under 38.5.....again,atlanta plays the run very well and houston`s passing offense isn`t gonna do all that much with yates(just too much inexperience)...

4)10 pt tease...broncos/vikes under 47.5/49ers-4.5/texans+11.5.....(no explanation necessary for the vikes-broncos under....no peterson and the other team is running a high school offense.....the niners should win handily after last weeks nat`l t.v. disappointment with the rams` qb gimpy.....and i just think that houston`s defense coupled with homecourt and the fact that this team has never been to the playoffs make them hungry and dangerous regardless of the qb situation.... damned shame that schaub went down because with him,this team was a legitimate superbowl player....


edit...adding miami -3 and buffalo pick....


still thinking about the giants and bills..i`ll be back to verify

hoping to get back to my early season form...

g.l. everyone...:sadwave:

signed:
the head honcho of the madjack`s football picking special needs division...

 

[THE_THONG]

i like raiders - dolphins over 43

:facepalm: