Wed 2 cents

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Baseball season is well under way, aye?
Have I missed anything?

(thank-you Mr. Sosa for tarnishing the world just a little more)

Brewers(Kinney)@Mets(Trachsel)
lean(s):

Brewers
under 8

pro1:
-edge to SP
-slight bat edge to Brewers
-Brewers bats have hit Trachsel
-Alomar apparently next pending DL assignment
con1:
-Trachsel hotter than hell
-Brewers big 2 Jenkins and Sesxon limited success vs Trachsel
-Trachsel threw a complete game shutout vs Brewers the last time he faced them, in 2002
-Brewers can't hit righties lately (.219 vs .244 year)
-Mets bats picking it up...a little...
#'s crunched:
P.OPS:Brewers:718, Mets:717
PITCH:Brewers:77,Mets:75
Digested: coin-toss
Price: Brewers +118 (PV+4)
Play: PASS

pro2:
-both SP sharp lately
-Mets bats "excelling" lately at .266 past 10 vs righties
-Shea Stadium
-see con1 above
con2:
-neither starter a real stud
-umpire unknown
-both teams may be anxious to get back into action, with 2 days off coming in (could be a pro, but Mets did score a W with their bats last time out, 10-4 over the Braves--was a lefty, Ramirez, but they did score 5 vs their last non-Brave righty, in a 5-0 win at Shea; Brewers only bagged 4 last time out, but was at Dodger Stadium, vs LHP Ishii, and 5 vs Nomo the day before)
Price: (under) 8 -130
PLAY:taking the 8 here despite the price, as it's 7.5 elsewhere, and still wanting juice...
UNDER 8 -+- 1.3/1

-----------------------

Rangers(Thomson)@Braves(Maddux)
leans:none
blurb:was thinking about over 9 until I learned that Eddings was behind HP; Rangers bats just .232 past 10 vs righties; Braves bats maybe not all 100%, though yesterday's game may suggest otherwise; Braves bats have pummelled Thomson while Maddux has had success vs Rangers bats; Braves should win and I have the utmost respect for Maddux, but this is an off-year for him to say the least (decline aux career?), and Thomson can throw the occasional good game, has a killer line-up behind him, and has pitched NL ball a-plenty, w/Rockies
#'s crunched:
P.OPS:Rangers:833, Braves:828
PITCH:Rangers:66, Braves:79
Digested:Braves64-36
Price:Braves -200 (PV -3), Rangers +180 (PV even)
Play: PASS

-----------------------------------

Mariners(Meche)@Phillies(Padilla)
leans:

Mariners
under 8

pro1:
-nice run-support for Millwood again (now back-to-back Philly blankings) as M's easily make 4 work with Moyer on the hill
-Meche becoming a solid starter this year after performing just part-time his first two
-M's bats and bullpen smokin' lately
con1:
-Meche's #'s not nearly as good away from the friendly confines of Safeco (opposing hitters .270, era 4.11 away vs .225 and 2.18 at Safeco)
-Padilla a little more consistent lately, and he's always capable of tossing up some zeros
#'s crunched:
P.OPS:Mariners:789, Phillies:750 (I'm surprised, myself, that this is so close--M's pounding lefties a little harder)
PITCH:Mariners:80, Phillies:80
Digested: slight edge M's, 53-47
Price: Mariners -105 (PV +1)
Play: PASS

pro2:
-both starters potentially budding studs, with flashes of brilliance here and there
-both bullpens solid
-Phillie offense not exactly smmmmokin'
-M's would be thrilled to win 4-0 (or even 4-3) again
con2:
-M's .276 on year and .283 past 10 vs righties (flippin' .397 past 10 vs lefties!)
-Phillies .267 past 20 vs. righties, which is 19 points higher than their season avg
-Eric Cooper, behind HP, not the best under option, as he's 8-4 on the over this year and 20-12 last year; mind you, 2 of his past 3 games have resulted in shutouts: 10-0 Fogg over Wood @Wrigley and 6-0 Schmidt over Batista @Bank One
Price: (under) 8 -110
PLAY:Cooper's strike % ain't that bad, this will be the first time that most batters will face these potentially budding aces, and I'll bank that the M's WILL be content to play whatever type of NL mini-ball it takes to compete
UNDER 8 -+- 1.1/1

ADDITIONAL PLAY FROM PSEUDOBET.CON:

Jim Thome 2003:
K's -49 1/2 over RBI's
-120
The Farm

---------------------------------
better go by threes
I'll have a coniption (sic?) if this mother crashes

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Angels(Washburn)@Expos(S Kim)
lean:

Angels (majorly)

pro:
-I always thought Washburn was the better starter (of the lefties) than Schoenweis, and he's sure comin' thru this year (again--18 W's last year); he's gone 6 straight starts without allowing more than 3 runs--earned or not--and has brought his era down from 4.76 to 3.22 since that time, his last April start
-Angels are hitting .280 on the year, and .292 the past 10 vs righties, not to mention starting off their Interleague-Intercountry play (San Juan) with a bang last night, their biggest offensive outburst of the year (22 hits, 15 runs)
-Expos have hit lefties well this year (.270) but just a measley .202 their past 10
-games at San Juan have been high-scoring, with homers-a-plenty; if it comes down to who can tee-off the most in this one, then I think the Angels have a better shot with a much better top-to-bottom line-up (too-many-freakin-'-hyphens-a-y-e-?-)
con:
-who the hell knows what this Kim dude has
-Expos BP solid
-Angels usually dominating BP without closer Percival (DL)
-VLADDY-MAN is back (and wa$n't it a fun ride V$ Expo$ while he wa$ out?)
#'s crunched:
P.OPS:Angels:772, Expos:757
PITCH:Angels:82, Expos:69
Digested:Vidro, Guerrero, and Wilkerson (combined for a 5 for 10 night yesterday), who have not seen Washburn, ever, must do something for the Expos to win here; pitching-wise, this Kim character must somehow struggle to get thru to the 4th, 5th, or even 6th, what with 4 Expos BP members combining to toss 7 innings yesterday...he will need solid defense and probably several breaks along the way to prevent the Angels from continuing to wreak mayhem on their staff; I don't see Washburn struggling here, although 3-5 by the Expos wouldn't surprise me, so I'm off the total...especially with the Kim-?-factor
I have Angels a strong 65-35
Price: Angels -138 (PV +7)
PLAY:
Angels -+- 4.14/3

------------------------------

Bosox@Pirates doubleheader
blurb:I like nothing in Lowe vs D'Amico--both starters decent lately and both offenses clicking; Pirates not going to roll over and die, but Bosox should be favoured with the better offense; D'Amico's poor #'s vs the Bosox are old ones, so maybe not relevant here; price will be too high for me on Sox (I'd play them -110, for a unit, e.g)
blurb2(probably1):I had the Pirates as an (generous maybe) ever-so-slightly favoured team yesterday, but still didn't touch it at +115...might be fun series to watch, but I'll wait until they play one before doing anything

----------------------------------------

A's(Hudson)@Marlins(Redman)
lean(s):

Marlins
under 8

pro1:
-Marlins bats had little trouble with Mulder, or the A's BP, yesterday in a 13-2 rout, outhitting the A's 18-8; 8 of the 9 starters got into the action, including SP Penny who was 2 for 4
-Marlins bats back-to-life in general lately, after a brief stint with mediocrity... .267 vs righties on the year, .301 in their past 10 (.340 on lefties past 10 as well)
-Dye finally into the lineup, but A's bats hitting only .216 past 10 vs lefties, and .243 on the year...they have been doing it with pitching
-Redman has been solid this year--arguably 5 of his 7 starts could be called beauties, the other 2 weren't that bad either, with still only 7 earned runs over the 12 innings pitched (his 2nd and 3rd starts of the year--his only L's); he's starting to finally look like the 1st round selection he was some 8 years back; he will keep them in this game
-Hudson is coming off his worst start of the year, @KC for one of the Royals rare few wins these days; not many Marlins hitters have faced Hudson, but maybe I-Rod can give them some advice, as he is 10 for 22 (.455) with a triple and dinger vs the right hander (since '87--Yaphoo)...('scuse me)
con1:
-this is the flippin' A's...and one of their studs to boot
-Hudson has been great in previous interleague games (8-1 with miniscule era...miniscule=obviously well under 3 but uncalculable due to time suspension device malfunctioning)
-Redman was 8-15 last year not merely because he was with the Tigers...okay...MOSTLY because he was with the Tigers...
-A's have BP edge, but also a good workout yesterday
-am I reaching?
#'s crunched:
P.OPS:A's:719, Marlins:771
PITCH:A's:82, Marlins:79
Digested:a rare series play with extrappled value comes in for me if this baby hits, but I can't resist hopping on the doggie proffered with the #'s that I corrupt
Confession: Marlins 58-42
Price: Marlins +130 (PV +14)
PLAY:
Marlins -+- 3/3.9

-------------------------------------------------
Out here on the perimeter there are no stars...

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Yankees(Mussina)@Reds(Wilson)
leans:

Yankees
under 9.5

pro1:
-monster SP edge
-current Yankees have hit Wilson, seen him lots
-Yankees hit .287 on the road vs righties
-Reds just .234 past 10 vs righties, and only .246 on the year, including just .241 at home
con1:
-Yankees just .228 past 10 vs righties (.269 year)
-Wilson semi-respectable lately
-Reds took the 1st yesterday
#'s crunched:
P.OPS:Yankees:812, Reds:762
PITCH:Yanks:85, Reds:69
Digested:the (Yanks) 64-36 I had yesterday seems a little generous after the Reds took that one, though it was no surprise against the overrated ("help...where's Yankee Stadium...") Pettitte; no point adjusting, as Yanks price has no value even if the integrity of my 64 holds true
Price: Yankees -175 (PV even (at 64))()()()
Play: PASS

pro2: (under...for those influence the under)
-Mussina is starting
-Wilson, a former numero uno pick (Mets '94), has pitched quite well his past 4 starts (vs FLA(2), Mil, StL), not officially having been Pummelled since May 3rd @SF, though his follow-up start vs StL, May 8th, was officially Crappy
-Yanks not hitting up a storm lately, as mentioned
-umpire Gorman very conducive to th under: the 8-3 under record he sports this year is no fluke, as he has consistently milked the under...hi strike % too
-clubs combined for only 7 yesterday, with worse pitching
con2:
-Great American ballpark not the best under stadium
-neither BP the greatest, though Rivera may (may) be all that's needed
-both clubs capable of exploding offensively
Price: (under) 9.5 -105 (force 61, suggested PV +11)
PLAY:
UNDER 9.5 -+- 2.1/2

-------------------------------------------------------------
Another Moment Where The law Has Failed Me:
a dang raccoon living in the ceiling...I want to scare it out and then smash it out of its pesty mind...that is a criminal offense from where I wield the shovel

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Orioles(Hentgen)@Astros(Miller)
leans:

Astros

pro:
-Hentgen has been a dog lately, especially immune to lapses of strike-zone location, which may be compounded by Cousins small strike zone
-Astros current players have beaten on Hentgen
-I was starting to lose some respect for Miller, but he was much better in May, than April, and I figure he's on an upstreak (coined here) after the CG gem (2 hits, 1 er(Patterson HR), 1 BB, 14 K!!, with only 102 pitches thrown...not much for a CG
-Astros nice comeback win (en route to shellac) over O's yesterday, 11-6
con:
-smoking is an understatement for O's bats lately: .347 last 10 vs righties (.277 year), and .400 past 10 vs lefties; their hitting a solid .284 away from Camden fields as well
-Astros bats just .229 last 10 vs righties (.260 year)
#'s crunched:
P.OPS:Orioles:762, Astros:746
PITCH:O's:65, Astros:81
Confounded:lucky on the supra-comeback yesterday, at bonu$ runline action of +135 (couldn't touch the 60prjuice), so the temptation is again there with Hentgen looking like chit, and Miller maybe surging
I submit Astros 65-35
Price: Astros -175 (PV +1...negligable)
Play: PASS

Price: Astros -1.5 +100 (PV tough...these run-lines are a beach...I usually give min -12 for such--the rare 10--but most of the time sticking with -15 as a base.
I'll use the force and pull out a 54 (11 off my 65)
gives me PV +4
Donation back to (Wo?)Man:
Astros -1.5 -+- 1/1

------------------------------------

Devil Rays(--->"""V"""<---.Zambrano)@Cubs(Estes)
leans: spectating
blurb:yeah...we believe you Sammy; D'Rays have looked okay at times, but only because squat is expected; I cannot put $$$ on this Zambrano until something is displayed (D'Rays w/decent pen this year, though); Estes is, hopefully for his sake, underachieving as a Cub so far; Cubs bats cold (.231 past 10 vs righties); D'Rays bats hot (.321 past 10 vs lefties); D'Rays are tempting, almost (Almost) just on principle; over 8.5 more tempting, but...
Play: PASS

------------------------------------

Blue Jays(Lidle)@Cardinals(Simontacchi)
leans:

Jays
over 9 (if anything)

pro1:
-SP edge w/Lidle going vs SimonT
-slight offensive edge w/T.O.
-crappy Jays pen may not be a factor if Lidle can chew innings
-Lidle has good #'s vs. Cards, at 3-0 in 4 (short) relief appearances (min. vs current)
-while the unproductive (so far this year) Hinske is out, and Stewart is unlikely tonight as well, Cards are likewise without the services of Marrero and Vina (both clubs seem to be hitting around these woes just fine)
con1:
-Cards bats slightly hotter lately (.299 to .288 p10 vs r)
-Lidle wasn't very sharp in his last outing (I've seen several of his starts this year, being situated where I'm situated), and only the good fortune of a pitiful opposing Chisox lineup prevented him from being totally dismantled
-SimonT respectable lately; good #'s at Busch (8-4, 3.65 era, .228 oppos.ba)
#'s crunched:
P.OPS:Blue Jays:836, Cardinals:814
PITCH:Jays:78, Cards:70
Sin-nopsis:Jays slight edge...53-47
Price: Blue Jays +100 (PV +3)
PLAY:
Blue Jays -+- 0.5/0.5
(carpe diemossible undetected homer-age bias potentialities incapsulated)

total: like the unfinished business I left with the A's/Marlins total, I'm Checkin' Brown, as I got large coin (pour moi) on the Fish (sorry, 'Phins) side, and less large coin (pour babysitter((sounds kinky))) on the Delgado Dukes

----------------------------------------------------
There is no dark side of the moon, really...
as a matter of fact it's all dark

 

[c20916]

Great writeups, was thinking of leaning towards the jays myself, I also like the astros -1.5.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

hmmm...I was gonna fix/edit that last go...but who am I to interfere with such unprovoked irony?

Indians(Traber)@Rockies(Oliver)
leans:

Rockies
over 12.5

pro1:
-Rockies destroy lefties (.321 past 10, .320 year, and .359! at Coors)
-I sorta believe that Oliver sucks, but his #'s, this year, are almost beginning to resemble those of a HALF-decent major-league pitcher (4 er's or less, going at least 5, his past 7 starts, including a rare 6 shutout innings vs SF (Coors) on May 25th, next to last)
-Traber may be a good up-and-comer, but he hasn't quite found the strike zone yet, consistently, and surely won't last more than 6, tops (Injuns pen blows)
con1:
-Injuns .272 past 10 vs lefties (.240 year)
-some current Injun bats have hit Oliver before
-Rockies pen also stinks
-the Price
#'s crunched:
P.OPS:Indians:696, Rockies:880
PITCH:Injuns:73, Rockies:68
Raccoon: particular importance to the location, at Coors, Rockies shOuld prevail again, 64-36
Price: Rockies -168 (PV +1...too pricey)
Price 2:Rockies -1.5 +110 (same reasoning as prior (not Mark) has me chopping off a smaller chunk than normal for the extra run, especially with Coors field not being the most likely park for a tight, one-run ball game, while Rock's won by 2, at home, more often recently (>70% of their wins) than they did in April, with only 7 of their 11 home wins (63%) coming by 2 (again, sounds kinky)
suggested PV, at 53, +5
PLAY:
Rockies -1.5 -+- 1/1.1

---------------------------------------

Chisox(Garland)@Diamondbacks(Capauno)(err...Good)
lean:had Chi compiled to a generous 53, so woulda played small for maybe a +130ish, but don't like them as much against any rightie, as opposed to the original back-up for Schill, Capauno (who sucks). Chisox hit righties even worse (MUCH worse) than they do lefties, and Good, while not great (sheesh), is a better rightie than Capau is a leftie (try saying that 5 ti...). Garland's last game, I suggest, was an abberation, as he usually prefers poundage (5 runs allowed in 5 of his ten starts, and he only avg's 5.5 IP/start). He threw a beauty against the Jays last time out (8 shutout innings of 5-hit ball, 0 BB, 6 K), and the D'Backs bats haven't exactly been smokin' (.262 p10 vs r, .265 year vs r, lower in both vs L)
I think that this is a Capauno, err, Good game to PASS on.

-------------------------------------------
Mention this to me...watch the weather change

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Thanks Streamwood c

My money is in, I got some time to slay, and I haven't contributed squat here for a while, due to unpreventable yadda yadda yadda

Tigers(Knotts)@Padres(Tollberg)
(gee...are they offering this pay per view? )
leans:4 me 2 take a break from the Padres
blurb:a healthy Hoffman bags me coin in Lawrence's past 2 starts; I don't think I had the Pads anywhere else lately, come to think of it, but those 2 hurt enough to create false memories...apparently;I think the shame would be too much for me, if I take the over (with these 2 bozos starting), and then observe the 4-2 final...Glendon Rusch would be a potential all-star, if he pitched at Qualcomm, if yaknowhattimean; UMP is even/slightly over, by my assessment
#'s crunched:
P.OPS:Tigers:611, Padres:731
PITCH:Tigers:70, Padres:66 (starter and pen may force the Tigers into an anomalous W)
I am rattled by the Padres 60-40 I get, though Cornejo, who shut down the upsurging Pad's bats yesterday, showsmuch more promise than today's Knotts...Tollberg is also no Lawrence, though, and may go to bed wondering why the Tigers display such poor overall #'s
Price: Padres -129 (PV +3, at the 60 (+/- on this one too high))
Play: PASS with pride

------------------------------------------------

Royals(Snyder)@Dodgers(Nomo)
lean(s):

Dodgers
under 7

pro1:
-Nomo is a monster this year
-KC bats .259 last 10 & .261 year vs righties; not terrible, but Nomo, Dodger Stadium, and the recent futility by KC suggests that the Royals will not be playing very loose baseball for this series
-Snyder is a year or two away from becoming, at worst, a decent starter; he's allowed 24 hits and 10 er's over his past 3 starts, 19 innings work (4.74 era) (A's(2) and Jays); the .252 opponent's BA and only 17 K's in 37 IP (11 BB) suggests to me that this '99 1st round selection is more of an up-and-coming control pitcher, rather than the next Oswalt or what-have-you fireballer, if so, a dominating performance at this stage is unlikely
-Royals pen started the year fine, but has gone into the toilet the past month or so
-Dodgers have, arguably, the best pen in baseball
con1:
-Dodgers bats wreak vs righties (.228 past 10, .242 year)
-big-zone UMP Bill Miller may give Snyder a few extra calls
-Royals offensive #'s dwarfs Dodgers'
#'s crunched:
P.OPS:Royals:741, Dodgers:660
PITCH:Royals:72, Dodgers:85
Ball & Chain: Dodgers 62-38
Price: Dodgers -180 (PV -3)
Play: PASS

Price2: Dodgers -1.5 +130
I was Joe Pass here, at the earlier +110, especially after shredding a unit last night on the slumbering Dodger bats, on the +125 runline (isn't this the same Dodger squad that's hitting .318 last 10 and .286 year vs lefties?!?!:shrug: )...Affeldt it was a good play at the time...
...anyways, my personal, presently outdated runline stats...

P.S. (M.S.?) IS THERE A SITE THAT PROVIDES RUN-LINE #'S (WINS BY 2/WINS IS MY PREFERRED CRUNCHABLE, HOME AND AWAY)

do not have the Dodgers mashing many teams, but I want my unit back (dammit ) and a Force-fed crunch to 50 (win by 2) now presents me with a coin toss at PV +6, vs my earlier +2 (at +110)
...hang on...
I'm back...
PLAY:
Dodgers -1.5 -+- 1/1.3

(wouldn't life be too quaint without the internet?)

total:the low 7, WITH juice, made me say NOT (under), despite the preferrable ump, the Nomo-monster, and the batlessness of it all...good thing too, as I'm not crazy (anymore) about the idea of riding both side and total for a game...I've been following the games too closely, lately, and I can't stand rooting for my team to score runs, but not TOO many runs, if yaknowhattimean

over/under on the "been there, done that" subconscious activity of any survivors:75.5%

--------------------------------------

Twins(Radke)@Giants(J Williams)
leans:

Giants
over 8.5

pro1:
-Radke is having a very poor year; 86 hits allowed in 64.2, 5.71 era, and .298 (or .316 depending on source...sheesh) opponents batting averages; 2 of his 5 starts in May were quality starts
-Twins just .258 vs righties past 10 (.272 year)
-Giants .274 vs righties past 10 (.265 year)
-several currents Giants players have smoked Radke, including Cruz, Durham, Grissom, and N.Perez (Bonds 1st crack in this one)
con1:
-I know squat about J.Williams, but am tempted to wager (if possible) that he is not the next Pedro Martinez, or even Shawn Chacon, or even Ruben Quevedo...well, maybe...regardless, this guy is a major unknown factor, sorta making this a twilight zone pick, as the Giants long relievers aren't the best in the game (over/under of 5 for J.W.'s innings pitched)
-Giants seem to hit lefties better the past couple of years, and that trend is starting to round into form again this year
#'s crunched:
P.OPS:Twins:768, Giants:770
PITCH:Twins:68, Giants:71
w/reservations: Giants 58-42
Price: Giants -125 (PV +2...not enough to entice)
Play: PASS

pro2:
-Radke presently has nothing, and opposing starter J.W. likely his equal
-Giants bats a little livelier lately
-teams produced 10 yesterday, with better starters going
-UMP Jim Wolf, while 21-14 under last year, doesn't have the biggest zone in the world, as his 60.63% and 1.61 K/BB ratio (2003) suggests; even last year at 62.0 (app. mid-range) and 1.83 (low) he was not a true under ump
con2:
-same Wolf did a Radke start last August, when the Twins beat KC (Byrd) 4-3
-Twins bats slightly calmer lately, as mentioned above
Price: (over) 8.5 -105
PLAY: I like this one the more I think about, perhaps I should stop thinking...already in once but may add another if Marlins and Angels collect
OVER 8.5 -+- 1.05/1

--------------------------------------------------------------------
Got one foot on the platform, the other foot on the train...
I'm going back to New Orleans...

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Total Picture:

Brewers@Mets under 8 1.3/1
M's@Phillies under 8 1.1/1
Angels 4.14/3
Marlins 3/3.9
NYY@Reds under 9.5 2.1/2 (scary to think about...ain't Wilson starting?)
Astros -1.5 1/1
Jays 0.5/0.5
Rockies -1.5 1/1.1
Dodgers -1.5 1/1.3
Twins@Giants over 8.5 1.05/1


Good Fortunes for whatever you submit
-----------------------------------------------------------------
"It will hurt your Sue and Johnny"...
You're so full of bull, Sam