eich, I'm not sure what you mean by "honing in on games" but I won't be too comfortable with any % that I come up with until at least May. Even up through June it can be difficult to gauge both offenses and bullpens--the early numbers can mutate substantially. Still, after 2 or 3 starts we'll have an idea of what the SP's are looking like plus we'll see some early trends. I think that, so far, I've gone a full unit on only two games, and both of them saw bullpens blow an early lead (e.g.Mets Tuesday). If that's honing. I'll attack better once (if) I'm up some.
Today's board is kinda grim. I even 'capped some of them and still see little value--I got several low 50%'ers with the Chisox at a high of 61%. Didn't do them all but looks like there could be some tight ones today. They took the Jays game off the board but keep in mind that they smoked lefties last season--DiNardo could be chuckin' Wednesday with Eveland coming up Thursday.
PLAYS
dodgers -102 0.51/0.5
Chisox -127 0.89/0.7
lad@Ariz un9 -110 0.66/0.6
cin@Mil ov10 +100 0.7/0.7
m's@TBay ov9 -105 0.84/0.8
15-team IF bet
1.cards 0.63/0.6
2.dodgers 0.55/0.5
3.braves over5.5 0.5/0.53
4.det@Bost ov9.5 0.62/0.5
5.NHL-nyrangers 0.6/0.63
6.Brewers over5.5 0.7/0.95
7.m's over4.5 0.7/0.7
8.Chisox 1.35/1
9.NHL-avalanche 0.8/0.84
10.padres 1.08/0.8
11.clev@Angels ov9.5 0.9/0.75
12.nyy@Kc un9 0.72/0.6
13.NHL-flames 1.2/2.1
14.cubs -1.5 1/1.3
15.NHL-sens@Pitt ov5.5 1.21/1.21
0.63 to win max 13.
I think that's it.
Took a look at Thursday and we might see a decent play or two but that board is nothing special as well. Jays, cards, Mets and cubs look good but will be costly...maybe...the homos will at least but maybe Hill or Wainwright (as if there) will be affordable. Brewers will be too pricey but let's see if we can get a good number with Hudson at Coors--I'd try that up to -125ish.
Guess I should say something about today's.
---Taking a shot with Kuroda--Owings just as good game #1 (better, even) but I'll take a shot with this guy's Kurma.
---Twins may have had a winning record on the road vs L last season but their offensive numbers weren't that impressive vs L and might suffer this year. Baker don't turn me on. Danks chucked a beauty in his first. My key play outside of the NHL. At a 61% cap...sheesh.
---Iassogna (Ariz) is an acceptable ump for an under play, both SP's dominated in their openers and neither offense is explosive.
---Schrieber (Mil) is a very good ump for an over and neither Bush or Fogg will see any votes for Cy, if yaknowhatimean. Park plays over and offenses are potent. Early season overs might not be happening much but looks good here.
---Marsh (TB) is a decent ump for overs. Rays smoked lefties last year though Washburn has good numbers vs. Sonnanstine is fade material, IMO, but Rays against a lefty might be tough to fade, especially with their hot start (including spring). I was expecting at least a 10. Hoppy.
Cards Looper is much better than Sampson and so is their bullpen. Offense may suffer a bit but should get to Sampson. Next series with stl@Sf should be all cards or all unders, I would think.
Sort of also like Colorado over, LAA over, Boston over and Kansas under. Umps (where known) don't conform as well to my leanings & 'cappage so I'll stick to the 3 played. Col, Bost & TB overs were all 'capped that way. Decent over-ump going in Boston, too, but the Tigers aren't swinging the sticks so I'm off it...save for some IF-action. Rockies aren't really hitting either and I'm not yet sure what to make of James. Even money I'd try the Braves. TB I'm on but not huge due to early-season-overitis.
Phillies-Mets I'd wouldn't bet on if my life depended on it.
Well...
GL
Today's board is kinda grim. I even 'capped some of them and still see little value--I got several low 50%'ers with the Chisox at a high of 61%. Didn't do them all but looks like there could be some tight ones today. They took the Jays game off the board but keep in mind that they smoked lefties last season--DiNardo could be chuckin' Wednesday with Eveland coming up Thursday.
PLAYS
dodgers -102 0.51/0.5
Chisox -127 0.89/0.7
lad@Ariz un9 -110 0.66/0.6
cin@Mil ov10 +100 0.7/0.7
m's@TBay ov9 -105 0.84/0.8
15-team IF bet
1.cards 0.63/0.6
2.dodgers 0.55/0.5
3.braves over5.5 0.5/0.53
4.det@Bost ov9.5 0.62/0.5
5.NHL-nyrangers 0.6/0.63
6.Brewers over5.5 0.7/0.95
7.m's over4.5 0.7/0.7
8.Chisox 1.35/1
9.NHL-avalanche 0.8/0.84
10.padres 1.08/0.8
11.clev@Angels ov9.5 0.9/0.75
12.nyy@Kc un9 0.72/0.6
13.NHL-flames 1.2/2.1
14.cubs -1.5 1/1.3
15.NHL-sens@Pitt ov5.5 1.21/1.21
0.63 to win max 13.
I think that's it.
Took a look at Thursday and we might see a decent play or two but that board is nothing special as well. Jays, cards, Mets and cubs look good but will be costly...maybe...the homos will at least but maybe Hill or Wainwright (as if there) will be affordable. Brewers will be too pricey but let's see if we can get a good number with Hudson at Coors--I'd try that up to -125ish.
Guess I should say something about today's.
---Taking a shot with Kuroda--Owings just as good game #1 (better, even) but I'll take a shot with this guy's Kurma.
---Twins may have had a winning record on the road vs L last season but their offensive numbers weren't that impressive vs L and might suffer this year. Baker don't turn me on. Danks chucked a beauty in his first. My key play outside of the NHL. At a 61% cap...sheesh.
---Iassogna (Ariz) is an acceptable ump for an under play, both SP's dominated in their openers and neither offense is explosive.
---Schrieber (Mil) is a very good ump for an over and neither Bush or Fogg will see any votes for Cy, if yaknowhatimean. Park plays over and offenses are potent. Early season overs might not be happening much but looks good here.
---Marsh (TB) is a decent ump for overs. Rays smoked lefties last year though Washburn has good numbers vs. Sonnanstine is fade material, IMO, but Rays against a lefty might be tough to fade, especially with their hot start (including spring). I was expecting at least a 10. Hoppy.
Cards Looper is much better than Sampson and so is their bullpen. Offense may suffer a bit but should get to Sampson. Next series with stl@Sf should be all cards or all unders, I would think.
Sort of also like Colorado over, LAA over, Boston over and Kansas under. Umps (where known) don't conform as well to my leanings & 'cappage so I'll stick to the 3 played. Col, Bost & TB overs were all 'capped that way. Decent over-ump going in Boston, too, but the Tigers aren't swinging the sticks so I'm off it...save for some IF-action. Rockies aren't really hitting either and I'm not yet sure what to make of James. Even money I'd try the Braves. TB I'm on but not huge due to early-season-overitis.
Phillies-Mets I'd wouldn't bet on if my life depended on it.
Well...
GL
