Wed April 4th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Wed April 4th 2007

2007: 5-3 +2.8 (2-day win streak)
ML 3-2 +1.3
RL 1-0 +1
Totals 1-0 +1
Parlays 0-1 -0.5
?system plays now (jinx?) 4-0 and picked 7 of 9 winners yesterday

Fla 54% (-140)-5 --rats!!!...why so much juice?kinda like Sanchez
Col 56 (-110)+3
Phil 61 (-116)+7
Cinci 59 (-130)+2 --Lilly never really impressed me while he was here in T.O.
Lad 52 (-112)-1
Hou 63 (-164)0
Mets 54 (-110)+1
Sd 60 (+105)+11
NYY 75 (-320)-2 RL62% (-170)-1 ?love to see the Yankees actually LOSE this game,
???????????????..though that would seriously hurt my early stats
???????????????..(70%+ starts at 1-0 w/Santana W)
Det 52 (-110)-1
Cws 59 (-110)+6
Laa 55 (-150)-5
Min 63 (-140)+4?.+whatever and I won't play Twins here?this Ortiz is fade material
???????number reflects large bullpen difference and small Twins batting edge
Bost 57 (-160)-5 --Sox should continue to have some trouble vs lefties, hence sub-60%
A's 54 (-120)-1 ?I tried all I could to massage this number up some, as I know I'm
???????..playing Harden, what with the dynamic spring he had (striking out
???????..everyone in sight), but I can't as M's bats will compete with A's here,
???????..as A's most recent success has come vs lefties

totals

ariz@Col ov10.5 70%(-110)+17
atl@Phil ov9 60 (-130)+3
cubs@Cinci ov9 70 (-120)+15
lad@Mil ov7.5 74 (-120)+19?.......I don't trust this as I respect Schmidt and Suppan
................................................doesn't suck (always)
sd@SF ov7.5 64 (-120)+9
tor@Det und8.5 60 (+100)+10
bosox@KC ov9.5 64 (-115)+10

PLAYS

System plays

Phillies -116 1.16/1
padres +105 1/1.05

system totals (which have stunk, overall, early on)lessee what I do to my 1-0?

ariz@Col ov10.5 1.1/1
cubs@Cinci ov9 1.2/1
jays@Det und8.5 1/1

psychic premonition plays

Reds -130 1.3/1
lad -112 1.12/1
a's -120 3/2.5

?and that's just the way that it is?

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

can't resist

can't resist

adding...

blue jays +100 2/2

--I got a good feeling about Burnett's start tomorrow (today), and the sticks vs a lefty should help their cause; Burnett was solid in limited action last year, so it would be real nice to see him remain healthy for a full season ... might give my Jays a hope in hell (yes, you read right..."my Jays"..uh-oh...homer play!)

Go Jays!
:00hour :drinky: :scared :weed: :mj07:

 

[bjfinste]

Been a fan of your posts for a couple years... but I have a question. Where does the % number come from, or what does it indicate?

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

thanks for asking.

the % number comes from a formula that I've been sorta off-and-on using for at least5 seasons (since '02) but I think I've finally gotten enough of a handle on things to give me a set of numbers to start the season with. ((Ami making sense?:weed: ))

The first month or so I'm not expecting the best results (which hopefully come from May onward).

The cool thing about this system is that, when I've kept statistics, it hits fairly accurately (e.g. plays rated at 70% hit about 70% of the time).

Totals are a bitch.
I'm more of an under than over player, and my system has been calling for a lot of early season overs which just haven't been happening (lotsa good starting performances and few bullpen collapses).

I'm trying to keep accurate stats this time through, and posting them here kinda makes me want to be a winner (even more) for the course of the season, if yaknowhatimean.

I don't know if that really answers your question or not...I think all I can add, for now (it's 4.15 am here and I was up early on little sleep...nice buzz:weed: going right now, though)...is...

I use a rating system for starters, bullpens, one key offensive stat (vsL,vsR,H,A), and then have minor adjustments for any home/away modifiers. This year I may look at doing something with fielding %, but I don't think it would move my numbers much from where I've got them.

We'll know soon if the system is working. Trouble is that I'll make additional bets and have to keep even more records ... it's gonna be a number-crunchin' whale:weed: of a time.

Actually, the system really speeds up my 'capping during the season because the numbers work together kinda sweet, with real easy calculations (addition and subtraction) to get the %, then I need to compare it to the line to see if there's any value to be found (according to my %). I can cap a full slate of 15 games, casually, in 30 minutes.
Comparing it to the lines, 0-72 hours later, takes about 10 minutes with a calculator handy.

Add in time to do these posts (which can sometimes be (too) long, and my days ahead will be filled with glorious baseball. Hope I can keep it up...it gets to be a grind at times, especially during losing streaks that inevitably come along.

I'll leave it at that and see if anybody is (strange)curious enough to ask the question.

GL today
:weed:

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I reread your question, and I notice that it asks what the number(s) indicate.


....team % (line) value indicator
e.g.Jays 60 (+100)+10

it's plus ten because the break even point on +100 bets is 50%, as in a coin toss, but the system suggests a 60% chance that the Jays win. +10.

I should be off
:weed:
peace

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I've looked at Thursday's games, already, and, barring any last-second changes, I've got an 80% coming up. Can anybody guess the game?

+113 that I get a response to this, what with my whopping 57 hits yesterday.

:weed:

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

adding

adding

one more...

atl@Phil under 9 +110 1/1.1

glall

 

[Fast Eddie]

I use a similar pct handicapping baseball and it has helped me speed up the process. I use an expected win pct based on runs scored and allowed (pythagorean theory). I convert the two teams expected win pct to an eventual money line and see if there is value. I am using last years results until enough games are played to establish a solid base for this year. The results have been solid so far.