Wed March 26th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Not at all comfy with these numbers.
Too many unknowns.

Oakland 57% (+104)+7


Large edge to A's pitching. Small(er) edge to 'Sox hitting--A's more productive against lefties than righties last season. 55-59% seems like a fair range; makes an even money play tempting.

Thought about dropping it 1 or 2 as 'Sox had more hits throughout #1 but A's did produce a number of walks, which is also important to production. Home-field might be more valuable today, also (maybe but this is still the World champs) but A's had the much better spring.

A total 'cap would give me pretty close to 50% so nothing promising for me there. Bullpens were worked yesterday and 'Sox likely get used again--both likely--will be weeks before SP's are stretching things out. I think Wendlestadt is umping--no serious factor. Ballpark isn't huge. Unders with Harden when he gets in a groove.

<<geez--5 errors by my boys in their 10-0 loss to Tampa...with Doc starting--fade my Jays plays>>

Some value on Oakland but not huge. Guess I have 7 hours to think about it. Moneyline that temptation gets the better of me: -163

Will post if played.

The -163 likely pays off.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Too much time on my hands...apparently...

ROI breakdown for A's

(ROI is totally a misleading determinant in these decisions--I finally figured out the proof for that about 13 hours ago...still don't fully get something, though)((what else is nude?))
===============================

A's 57% (+104)+7

57 wins at +1.04
43 losses at -1.00

59.28
-43
=======
16.28
--------- = +16% ROI
100 risk

Not great for a 57% proposition.
Could be worse.

I need some kind of new prescription such as a 20% minimum for calls under 60%. Something like that. At 60% a +7 value indicator was a "system pick" (as was any +10) last year, so maybe I can just stick with that.

I guess that being obsessed is better than being possessed.

 

[eins]

Thanks for all your work EXTRA...

any idea when you'll make the final call?

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Not sure.
Sorta hoping that someone might talk me out of it.
Getting more comfortable with the post (57%) but still not huge value.

Should check one more thing...

A's hit Lester okay last year in one, at Fenway.
His road numbers weren't atrocious.

Harden no meetings last season.
Manny and Papi had smoked him previously.
Several haven't seen him, including Lowell.
Home numbers mediocre last year but solid before that--not that this is much of a "home" game, save for the batting 2nd.

Harden's last two spring starts were very good--maybe sells me right there. Not sure about Lester's last but nothing special for the entire spring.

Was hoping for a +110 but it ain't gonna happen.
Like the A's but not for a whole franky.
Will open the season small.

 

[Destructor D]

Took A's +105 for 7*, A's 1st half +100 for 1.5*, and 1st half Under 5.5 for 1.5*... hoping Harden throws a gem. His previous numbers against Boston scare me as does the fact Lester is an OVER pitcher. However, I have faith Harden throws a gem and A's win 5-2 if their bullpen holds up.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

A's lead after 4.5 innings is/was a thought.
+120 is a bit low, there.
(my book using a 35-cent line for that)
((almost as bad as Sports Select))

Either A's lead after 4.5 OR under 5 1st 4.5 sounds good.
That under is -150 though. Pass.

Can the A's pen funk them back-to-back?
Possible, I suppose.

Lester can be hit.
A's get up by 3 and they should take it.
(some prediction there, aye?)

Reminds me of my work in the playoffs.
Overkill.
Maybe the KISS rule is overrated.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Hey DD
good luck
I'd play all the same.
Might just try the moneyline.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Looked into how the A's did this spring against lefty starters. Saw that they had pretty good results, again lefty relievers too. Haven't faced one for a while though (not sure about the Japenese teams they played a few days ago--won 'em both, though). Also think that I'll like this a lot less if tied after 5, hence the choices (coulda had lead after 5 for -112 but I'll forgo my 5th inning).

PLAYS

A's lead after 4.5 +120 0.5/0.6
A's +100 0.5/0.5


Moved as I figured but even money is even money.
Can't touch the totals as the 'Sox can hit anyone on a good day.

GL

 

[Lucena]

nice work

nice work

keep em coming ...

 

[jer-z jock]

Nice job extrapolator.....as always really enjoy the info you provide and knowledge you bring:SIB