Wed NBA 2H 30-17 YTD

- FT -

- FT -

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Tuesday: 1-1
YTD Record: 30-17 [63.83%]

Average Margin on Winning Plays: 10.9 pts
Average Margin on Losing Plays: -7.4 pts
(Goal is to get the losing plays around -6)

True ROI: 20.80% (Total Amount I have won/Total Amount that I have risked for all plays)

Winning Days: 7
Losing Days: 2
Push Days: 5 :rolleyes:

FT Prediction Model Record (stand-alone for Unders): 50-30 [62.5%]
YTD NBA 2H Unders: 65-43 [60.19%]
These are based on 4 Qtrs (does not include OT), so might be a tad overstated

Teams to Watch:
CHA/CLE 7-0 2H Under
CHI/MIA/OKC 6-1 2H Under

DEN 6-2 2H Over
PHI 5-2 2H Over


bankroll.JPG


Looking forward to tonight...let's print some money!

printing-money1.jpg
 
- FT -

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I mentioned a few days ago a pilot program I was going to roll out for Game Unders. Well it needed some refinement, and I think it is ready for testing. This is a very selective system, so don't expect too much action. I might be playing some of these for 1/10th of my bankroll, but want to give it 2 weeks from today before I risk anything more.

Play UNDER any game where the line falls between (and including) the totals given.

GSW/IND n/a n/a
CHI/TOR 194.8 199.7
ATL/NYK 201.9 205.1
PHI/NJN 193.4 196.4
UTA/BOS 196.0 196.0
CHA/DET n/a n/a
DEN/MIL n/a n/a
POR/MIN 194.3 195.3
CLE/ORL 193.5 194.7
MEM/HOU 201.1 206.5
DAL/SAS 197.1 201.1
NOH/PHX 206.3 208.8
OKC/LAC n/a n/a

*I understand line movements can potentially cause issues in systems like these. I will personally be using the most widely available line right before tip-off for tracking and wagering purposes.

Good luck, see you at halftime.

FT
 
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Thanks Trampled, didn't realize it was so complicating ;)
 
ari

ari

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Guys - his post states:

"Play UNDER any game where the line falls between (and including) the totals given."

Example - CHI/TOR 194.8 (round up to 195) 199.7 (200)
If the game total is inbetween or exactly one of these numbers - bet the Under.
 
- FT -

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ari said:
Guys - his post states:

"Play UNDER any game where the line falls between (and including) the totals given."

Example - CHI/TOR 194.8 (round up to 195) 199.7 (200)
If the game total is inbetween or exactly one of these numbers - bet the Under.
Click to expand...

Not exactly true...the reason I have the decimals is so that the rounding is clear. In your example, 200 would NOT be a play, but 199.5 would. The total MUST be in between or include the posted range.
 
sfmoney

sfmoney

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System question...

System question...

Hey FT - First thanks for providing this. Question for this system. Does it factor in injured starters or do you not play it (even within range) if there is an injured starter(s).

Potential scenario - I see Spurs did hit the range this morning at 199 and now they are 196. Duncan and Parker are doubtful tonight. Does the system rely on vegas adjusting the line and therefore not a play tonight? What if that line stay within the range, intuitively I would like it more with those scorers out?

Thanks for your insight and GL with the system.
 
- FT -

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sfmoney said:
Hey FT - First thanks for providing this. Question for this system. Does it factor in injured starters or do you not play it (even within range) if there is an injured starter(s).

Potential scenario - I see Spurs did hit the range this morning at 199 and now they are 196. Duncan and Parker are doubtful tonight. Does the system rely on vegas adjusting the line and therefore not a play tonight? What if that line stay within the range, intuitively I would like it more with those scorers out?

Thanks for your insight and GL with the system.
Click to expand...

First off, regarding injuries in general...I don't factor them in any way. Vegas will adjust the line accordingly based on the status of star players, so I am not trying to add an extra layer of analysis because Player A is in or out.

About the line movement, quick and easy explanation. I wait until about 5-10 min before tip-off to make a play. I am not concerned about all the noise and where the line opened and where it has moved. I think if you are on the right side of a pick, you are either going to win it with no question or the line movement will help/hurt you half the time (if it's very close). It all evens out in the end.

Re: Spurs game in particular...line is sitting at 196/196.5 right now, and system is requiring at least 197.5, is it a play for me, no...but the fact that it is very close means that it's probably a decent play (better than 50%) even at that number.

Last thing, we are in "trial mode" so will just have to watch and see how it all plays out, whether or not line movements are a factor, etc...

I am not playing anything myself on this for a while...if I do, it will be because I am bored and will play 1/10th of my regular 2H bet.

Good luck,
FT
 
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- FT -

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CLE/ORL Under 94.5 (-105) 2H

System is spitting them out, what can I do!?:scared
 
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