series info
series info
BEGINNING THURSDAY MAY 22
Philadelphia at Houston (4) 22nd, 23rd, 24th, 25th
The Astros have been coming on strong (7-4, +$480 last 11 days) and they?ve become a force to be reckoned with here at Minute Maid Park (11-6, +$395). But their pitching still looks shaky (4.39 team ERA, 11th in the NL) and they could be vulnerable vs. a hard hitting Philly team that checks in with a 8-4 (+$445) mark in night games on the road. Kyle Kendrick has been the biggest money-maker for the visitor (+$295) and should catch a nice price when he makes his anticipated start on Friday night. BEST BET: Kendrick.
Cincinnati at San Diego (4) 22nd, 23rd, 24th, 25th
The Padres were considered a strong contender when the season got underway, but as Memorial Day draws near they own the worst record in baseball (16-29, -$1610). Their offense is non-existent (.236 team BA, averaging just 3.4 runs per game), and their pitching staff has under-performed as well (4.55 ERA among starters last 11 days). The Reds have won 8 of their last 10 (+$640 with 5.9 runs per game) and they own two of the league?s best righthanders in Aaron Harang (3.12 ERA in 10 starts) and Edinson Volquez (1.12 ERA in 8 starts), both of whom should see action at Petco Park this weekend. BEST BET: Harang/Volquez.
BEGINNING FRIDAY MAY 23
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
It?s tempting to take a look at the Pirates, who have looked surprisingly sharp in recent days (7-4, +$510), but the Cubs are hard to pass up in this situation. They?ve already decimated the Bucs in head to head play (8-1, +$460), they own the league?s strongest offense (.286 team BA, with 5.9 runs per game) and a solid mound corps (3.76) that can slow down the Pittsburgh attack. Pittsburgh has the least effective pitching staff in the NL, so they?ll be lucky to salvage a single victory. BEST BET: Cubs in all games.
San Francisco at Florida (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
The Giants haven?t played well in 2008, and they?ve been at their most inept in road games (only 6-13, -$475). Florida, on the other hand, has been a huge surprise, with a handle on first place in the competitive NL East. They?ve done outstanding work against righthanders (+$810 with 5.2 runs per game). The only SF hurler who concerns us is Tim Lincecum (1.89 ERA in 8 starts), but he?s likely to miss this series. And since Jonathan Sanchez is not expected to see action, we?ll take a shot vs. the SF lefties as well. BEST BET: Marlins vs. Zito & Misch & all righthanders except Lincecum.
Arizona at Atlanta (4) 23rd, 24th, 25th, 26th
We?ve been riding Arizona quite a bit this year, but they?ve leveled off somewhat, and they?ll be up against the one pitching staff in the league that can give them a run for the money (Braves 3.60 team ERA vs. 3.63 for the Diamondbacks). Atlanta checks in here with a stellar 10-2 record vs. righthanders at Turner Field (+$725) while the visitor is only 4-6 (-$200) in their road games vs. righties. This promises to be a hard fought series, but the edge clearly goes to the host. BEST BET: Braves when righty meets righty.
Milwaukee at Washington (4) 23rd, 24th, 25th, 26th
A four game series with the Nats is just what the Brewers need to get their season on track, but with a 9-15 (-$715) record on road games can they take advantage? There isn?t a great deal of difference between these clubs statistically (Nationals 4.60 ERA, .241team BA . . . Milwaukee 4.59 ERA, .234 BA), and Washington has a 5-2 record in day games in this ballpark (+$320). We?ll go with the home team on Sunday, and with a pair of hurlers who have had a respectable showing. BEST BET: Redding/Lannan/Nationals in day games.
N.Y. Mets at Colorado (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
The Rockies haven?t followed up on their 2007, falling back in the NL West pack and far from serious contention (-$1025 overall). The pitching has been dreadful, including their #1 man Jeff Francis, whose ERA has ballooned to an ugly 5.87 (-$270). The rest of the Colorado lefthanders haven?t been any better, and the Mets are a team that can manhandle southpaws (10-4, +$420, including a 5-1 record on the road with 6.3 runs per game). And for all their ups and downs, the Mets continue to enjoy quality pitching (3.88 ERA, 4th in the league). BEST BET: Mets vs. lefthanders.
St. Louis at L.A. Dodgers (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
Both these teams are on the downswing after some nice stretches of winning baseball (Dodgers 3-6, -$430. . . Cards only 4-7, -$340). LA would be more attractive if they were going up against some lefties, but the St. Louis staff is exclusively righthanded. Those pitchers can keep the LA offense in check (Dodgers only 12-17, -$790 vs. righthanders) and all the LA starters are struggling at the moment (5.71 ERA last 10 days). BEST BET: Righthanders vs. the Dodgers.
Minnesota at Detroit (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
Things just are not working out for the Tigers, who remain mired in the AL Central basement. Their highly regarded pitching staff is saddled with the worst ERA in the AL (4.99), and the offense is sputtering as well (2.3 runs per game last 10 days). The Twins are in decidedly better shape and they?ve posted a tidy profit in night games overall (+$520). Their mostly righthanded rotation is well suited to stop Detroit a team with a 12-25 (-$1845) record vs. righthanders. BEST BET: Righthanders vs. the Tigers in night games.
Texas at Cleveland (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
The Rangers are performing much better than was expected (7-3, +$450 last 10 days with 6.8 runs per game), racking up impressive offensive stats across the board (.273 team BA). A team that has always struggled on the mound is now getting positive contributions from a variety of unlikely sources. The Indians have lost money at Progressive Park (-$415) and while their run production is not the worst, they need to improve on that pitiful .235 team BA. The visitor will no doubt catch some nice underdog prices against the Cleveland aces, so take the visitor when it?s right. BEST BET: Rangers at +135 or better.
Seattle at N.Y. Yankees (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
An odd scheduling quirk finds the Mariners back at Yankee Stadium for the 2nd time this month. They were swept by New York the last time (-$305) and their overall record (-$1350) does not inspire much confidence, even with the Yankees? multiple deficiencies. At the same time, we know the Yankees will be overpriced despite their sub-par showing (-$1025). They may have trouble vs. Eric Bedard, but neither side appeals to us at the present time. BEST BET: None.
Kansas City at Toronto (4) 23rd, 24th, 25th, 26th
The Royals aren?t going to win their division, but considering how poorly they?ve fared in recent seasons, 21-22 (+$280) looks pretty good right now. Zack Greinke has been a revelation in 2008, bouncing back from baseball exile to post remarkable numbers through his first nine starts (+$560, 2.18 ERA). Expect to see him on the mound this Friday, and keep in mind that the Blue Jays are only 13-18 (-$1200) in night games this year. BEST BET: Greinke.
Baltimore at Tampa Bay (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
The Rays have the edge over their division rival in head to head play (5-3, +$160) and we like the way they?ve been playing (8-3, +$500 last 11 days with a 1.87 ERA among starters). They?re a dominant 12-4 (+$850) vs. righthanders at Tropicana Field, and while the Orioles lineup is loaded with lefthanders, we?re likely to get at least opportunity to go with the home team. Baltimore has lost money (-$170) outside of Camden Yards. BEST BET: Rays vs. righthanders.
L.A. Angels at Chicago W. Sox (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
The Angels have loosened their grip on the top slot in the AL West (4-6, -$315 last 10 days with only 3.8 runs per game), but they?ve fared well in road games overall (+$350). At the same time, they?ll be up against a greatly improved Chicago pitching staff (3.55 team ERA, 3rd best in the league). Mark Buehrle has been the weak link in the White Sox rotation (-$370, 5.27 ERA in nine starts). The Angels are 7-2 (+$490) vs. lefthanders so their worth a shot vs. the home team?s struggling southpaw. BEST BET: Angels vs. Buehrle.
Boston at Oakland (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
The Red Sox head out west to take on the team they opened the season with in Japan (3-1, +$210 vs. the A?s in head to head play). It?s been nothing but bad news for Boston outside of Fenway Park, particularly against righthanders (-$855), and their opponent here at McAfee Coliseum owns one of the top pitching staffs in baseball (3.34 ERA). Oakland has already turned a fat profit vs. righthanders in 2008 (+$805) and they?ll get a chance to improve on that record this weekend, probably at very attractive odds vs. the high priced defending champs. BEST BET: Athletics when righty meets righty.
