cubs -195 and under10-:
not much for big chalk plays, but you've got to adjust during the dog days, as they are the most difficult time to play bases imo.
looks like an impossible spot for milwaulkee. brewers have lost nine of their last ten, and are 5-16 during august, hitting a little over .200 during that span. if that's not bad enough, they look likely to be shorthanded today. last night, lf geoff jenkins fouled a ball off his right knee and left the game in the fifth inning. 1b lyle overbay strained a hammy and departed in the seventh. hard to imagine both of them being ready to go in a day game after a night game. if jenkins doesn't go, that probably means russell branyan gets the start, despite the slump that's included 12 strikeouts in his last 16 ab's.
davis has been reasonably solid on the rubber this year, but he's not likely to get much support today. with capuano getting run out after one and a third innings last night, brewers ran through five relievers. obermueller and wise are unavailable today, and dave burba strained a knee last night, so call him questionable. this can't bode well for davis, who's thrown 251 pitches in his last two starts, by far his highest two game pitch count of the year. today we're looking at a hot muggy chicago afternoon with some likelihood of interruption by thunderstorms and a steady wrigley wind blowing out to left. all things considered, it's difficult to see davis going deep.
meanwhile, maddux has been steady as a rock since the all star break - 5-1 with a 2.79 era. other numbers - 3.38 in wrigley this year, 2.25 vs milwaulkee this year, 1.48 career vs milwaulkee.
even with the wind blowing out to left and the brewer pen issues, this total just too high imo. davis should be able to hang at least the first time through the order, and maddux's numbers speak for themselves. with the cubbies a heavy favorite and a big series with houston starting tomorrow, wouldn't be too surprising to see some defensive substitutions if dusty's boys get a lead. obviously, a cubby win means an 8 1/2 frame game.
if you follow umpires, you may have noted that today's hp ump angel hernanez is in the midst of one of his second half strike zone expansions. he's 2-9 to the under over the last 11 games, averaging a little over 7 rpg and a k/bb ratio well over 2/1. he and maddux should fit together well today, especially if hernandez is watching the weather and the game is decided early.
all adds up to the cubbies and under for me, but, like i mentioned above, this is a difficult time of year to cap, so let's all keep our heads. glta today, and lets see if we can take some early money into tonight's slate.
not much for big chalk plays, but you've got to adjust during the dog days, as they are the most difficult time to play bases imo.
looks like an impossible spot for milwaulkee. brewers have lost nine of their last ten, and are 5-16 during august, hitting a little over .200 during that span. if that's not bad enough, they look likely to be shorthanded today. last night, lf geoff jenkins fouled a ball off his right knee and left the game in the fifth inning. 1b lyle overbay strained a hammy and departed in the seventh. hard to imagine both of them being ready to go in a day game after a night game. if jenkins doesn't go, that probably means russell branyan gets the start, despite the slump that's included 12 strikeouts in his last 16 ab's.
davis has been reasonably solid on the rubber this year, but he's not likely to get much support today. with capuano getting run out after one and a third innings last night, brewers ran through five relievers. obermueller and wise are unavailable today, and dave burba strained a knee last night, so call him questionable. this can't bode well for davis, who's thrown 251 pitches in his last two starts, by far his highest two game pitch count of the year. today we're looking at a hot muggy chicago afternoon with some likelihood of interruption by thunderstorms and a steady wrigley wind blowing out to left. all things considered, it's difficult to see davis going deep.
meanwhile, maddux has been steady as a rock since the all star break - 5-1 with a 2.79 era. other numbers - 3.38 in wrigley this year, 2.25 vs milwaulkee this year, 1.48 career vs milwaulkee.
even with the wind blowing out to left and the brewer pen issues, this total just too high imo. davis should be able to hang at least the first time through the order, and maddux's numbers speak for themselves. with the cubbies a heavy favorite and a big series with houston starting tomorrow, wouldn't be too surprising to see some defensive substitutions if dusty's boys get a lead. obviously, a cubby win means an 8 1/2 frame game.
if you follow umpires, you may have noted that today's hp ump angel hernanez is in the midst of one of his second half strike zone expansions. he's 2-9 to the under over the last 11 games, averaging a little over 7 rpg and a k/bb ratio well over 2/1. he and maddux should fit together well today, especially if hernandez is watching the weather and the game is decided early.
all adds up to the cubbies and under for me, but, like i mentioned above, this is a difficult time of year to cap, so let's all keep our heads. glta today, and lets see if we can take some early money into tonight's slate.
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