Wednesday August 1st

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Wednesday August 1st 2007

2007: 626-549 +73.1
July: 148-129 +18.53
June: 176-165 +7.38
May: 180-144 +51.4
April: 122-111 -4.21
system picks 2-0 yesterday; 38-23 for July
system picks for 2007 are 170-103 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 3-1 yesterday; 47-43 for July
system totals for 2007 are 229-177

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

stl 64% (-115)+10 RL 50 (+145)+9
cin 58 (-118)+3
col 53 (+107)+4
Atl 54 (-135)-4
mets 56 (-108)+4
phil 52 (+129)+8
Sd 58 (-122)+3
sf 61 (+101)+11
Tb 52 (+114)+5
det 60 (-101)+9
Bost 64 (-191)-2
Bost 62 (Tavarez-Trachsel)
Nyy 64 (-229)-6 cws 36 (+211)+3
Clev 58 (-177)-6 tex 42 (+169)+4
kc 57 (+127)+12
Seat 51 (-126)-5

system totals

hou@Atl un9.5 69% (-114)+15 --ump Nauert is even
sf@Lad un8 65 (-109)+12 --Bucknor is a true over-ump; kills this one
det@Oak ov9.5 66 (-114)+12 --Davis is a good OVER-ump
laa@Seat un8 68 (-114)+14 --Eddings is a great UNDER-ump


Finished July quite strong. I'm especially glad the Yankees smoked Contreras as that was the most likely event I saw happening. Got a real break on the Fenway total.

Cards, Giants, Tigers and Royals look promising for Wednesday.
I'd also grab that Safeco total before the price goes too high; Angels produced well Tuesday, mind you, which has me a little concerned; Hernandez will have to have his "A" game tomorrow, methinks, to save that under.

Will post plays before dawn.
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

some possible team totals
(w/relative system number; + for overs, etc.)

cards ov4.5 -140 (+8)
Pitt un4.5 -125 (-10)
Nats un4.5 -135 (-10)
ariz un4 -125 (-8)
Dodgers un4 -120 (-15)
tigers ov4.5 -130 (+14)
Clev ov5.5 -105 (+7)
Twins un4.5 -110 (-9)
laa un4 -130 (-6)
Seat un4 -110 (-6)


Dodgers have scored less than 4 runs in 3 of their past 5 games, and the Giants bullpen has been solid lately, making Lad under a possibility.
Cards should get to Armas during his 4-6 innings of work; then they'll get quite a few AB's against a mediocre Pirates pen.
Looper has tossed 2 beauties against the Pirates already this year and he is coming off of a great start; Cards moneline looks better than either team total for this one.
Tigers best in MLB vs lefties and face a mediocre Braden here, who's 0-3 in his past 3, getting shelled pretty good in 2 of those; most of Braden's outtings have been short this year so the Tigers will get another shot at the A's mediocre bullpen (A's DID get 3 scoreless innings from the bullpen Tuesday, mind you); on their current road trip the Tigers have scored at least 5 in 5 of the 10 games.
Indians OPS higher against lefties than righties, but this one is a pass, for me, due to the Indians poor work yesterday.
In Bannister's past 5 starts the opposition has not scored more than 4 runs once (faced Rangers, Tigers, Bosox, M's and Chisox); 9 of Bannister's last 10 starts have seen the opponent score less than 5 (only over was at Miller Park against the Brewers, back on June 23rd); Twins have scored 5 or more in only 1 of their past 9 games (just yesterday); Twins scored 5 or more in only 4 out of 10 during their last homestand (mid-July); this one looks solid--maybe better than the moneyline as the Royals have not been producing at the Metrodome in this series.
Angels & M's might both play under as super-under-Eddings will be ump'ing; this side is an impossible call for me so I have no clue which of these would be better; I'm trying the game total under here.

Twins and Dodgers under might be worthwhile while Tigers over looks promising too.

Note: big-time over-ump Bucknor is doing the Dodgers game. so I'd say that ruins the likelihood of a Dodgers under. Might hurt Lincecum in general as he's still pretty fresh and might get rattled by the tiny strike zone.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

return on investment breakdown for system picks
----------------------------------------------------------------------
(cards,giants,tigers,royals)
(((all visitors...could be tough to go better than 2-2 today)))
----------------------------------------------------------------------

cards 64% (-126)+8
(I'm a player at -115 but using current line here)

briefly:
--giving the Cards a huge edge at SP
--rather large edge to Cards bats, too
--Cards with the much better bullpen

-126 is 79.4 cents on the dollar
64 x 0.794 = 50.816
36 x -1......= -36
----------------------------------
....................14.816%

About average for a system pick.
How about my -115...

-115 is 87 cents on the dollar
64 x 0.87 = 55.68
36 x -1.....= -36
------------------------------
.................19.68%

A 33% higher ROI with the early line.
Demonstrates how important it is to be ready to pounce on a decent line early.
Cards victory Tuesday might have moved it some, but mostly, I think, people are looking to fade Armas.
Should work.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

giants 61% (-104)+10
(I'm on it at +101...not as much movement here)

briefly:
--Giants with a huge edge at SP
--Lad OPS vs R .734; Giants OPS vs L .695; factor in Giants OPS last 7 days of .806 and Dodgers OPS last 7 of .657 and I've got the bats fairly even for this contest

-104 is 96.1 cents on the dollar
61 x 0.961 = 58.621
39 x -1.......= -39
----------------------------------
...................19.621%

...and at +101...
61 x 1.01 = 61.61
39 x -1.....= -39
------------------------------
....................22.61%

15% higher with the earlier line, despite the small movement.
Still very worthwhile at current lines.
Still...this is the one that I'm the least confident in...maybe along with the Royals, considering the Twins have won 4 straight and have shut down KC pretty good in the series so far.
Lincecum is working on a string of 6 consecutive quality starts, mind you, being virtually unhittable in 4 of them.
Worthwhile.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

tigers 60% (-109)+7
(same deal...I grabbed 'em at -101...Tigers were up 3-1 at the time, I believe, vs Haren)

briefly:
--Tigers OPS vs L .865 (tops in MLB)
--A's OPS vs L .738; was at .764 at the All-Star break so they've had trouble vs lefties lately
--I have the pitching close to even for this one as Robertson's past 2 starts have been horrible...he's 2-2, 5.46 era in 4 starts vs the A's...worse than that, he's 0-2 (in 2) at McAfee with an 8.31 era

-109 is 91.7 cents on the dollar
60 x 0.917 = 55.02
40 x -1......= -40
--------------------------------
...................15.02%

Slightly better than the Cards current line.
...at -101...
-101 is 99 cents on the dollar
60 x 0.99 = 59.4
40 x -1.....= -40
---------------------------
..................19.4%

Again a big difference, for only an 8-point swing on the line.
Tigers 22-9 this year vs lefties (71% winners), including 13-6 on the road (68%).
A's 16-16 against lefties including 8-6 at home.
Just need Robertson to get his act together and toss some kind of decent game as the Tigers should score more than they did yesterday.
Looks promising.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

royals 57% (+127)+12
(line hasn't budged...highest value indicator of the bunch)

briefly:
--I'm giving the Royals a large edge pitching here as Bannister has been solid all year and spectacular lately, and against good competition too; Twins still have the edge in the bullpen but KC's pen has been pretty steady the past couple of months
--Twins OPS vs R .741 while Royals OPS vs R is .715; factor in KC's OPS for the past 7 days at .807 while the Twins last 7 is a pitiful .619, and I've got the bats pretty even for this matchup

57 x 1.27 = 72.39
43 x -1.....= -43
-------------------------------
...................29.39%


Was obvious that it would be highest, with the highest value indicator and the best line.
This one also contains the highest probability of failure (43% by my numbers), dropping the appeal slightly.
I would like it better if KC had taken one of the first two, but this one, I figured, would be their best chance for a victory.
Bonser threw twice against the Royals in April--both short outtings--tossing 1 beauty and 1 mediocre, getting no decisions while the Twins won both games (KC is hitting much better currently than they hit during April (their OPS vs R was under .700 for April)).
Bannister has never faced the Twins, which might serve him well here.
If KC can score 5 then I think that they win this one.
Again...looks worthwhile.

With 4 road teams I certainly can't expect to sweep the bunch. 3-1 would be beautiful.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I'm alright, Jack. Keep your hands off my stack.

I'm alright, Jack. Keep your hands off my stack.

PLAYS

system picks

cardinals -115 2.3/2
giants +101 1.24/1.26
tigers -101 2.02/2
royals +127 1.5/1.9

other picks

mets -108 2.16/2

totals

det@Oak ov9.5 -114 0.79/0.7
Twins under 4.5 -110 0.68/0.62
laa@Seat un8 -114 1.71/1.5

2-teamer
--tigers over 4.5
--kc@Min un9
+216
0.5/1.08


I've got 5 visitors today so I'm a little fearful of starting August the wrong way. Paying very little juice, though, so a 3-2 should net me some coin. Decided that the Mets are a worthwhile go as well; I've never been much of a Bush supporter, even during his time as a Blue Jay; Brewers seem to have stopped mashing lefties, too, so Perez may have a good game here; last 7 days Brewers had an OPS of only .731 while Mets past 7 days they were OPS .821; Bush actually worked an inning in yesterday's game, picking up the win, and the 13 pitches that he threw there might reduce his duration here; Mets could sure use Beltran back in the lineup but I think that the Mets still have plenty to get the job done today?that 7-day OPS was all without Carlos in the lineup. I think that everything else I've discussed. My 2 game totals both have appropriate umpires going. That Tigers team total looks very promising but I figure if they can plate 5 or more then they should be winners, so I'm happy enough with my moneyline action.

I haven't 'capped Thursday yet but having a quick boo at the SP's makes me think that we could see a lot of overs in the N.L. I see no sides that really look attractive.

Need some sleep?gotta be up in 5 hours or so.
Catch ya on the flipside.
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

early report for Thursday

early report for Thursday

couldn't sleep...that's what you get for waking up at 8 pm, I guess.

Thursday looks grim, so get your licks in today.

Looking at real coin-tossers in Pittsburgh (Reyes-Youman), Milwaukee (Sosa-Capuano or Vargas), Washington (Dumatrait or Ramirez-Bacsik), LA (Zito-Tomko) and Oakland (Saunders-Gaudin).

Cubs, Padres, Rockies, Astros and Orioles will all be calls in the mid-50's. Rockies might be worth a shot at even money or better, especially if they win again tonight. Orioles (Guthrie-Wakefield) will be worth a play at some reasonable dog-money as O's will have the major edge at SP and the past 7 days has seen the Bosox OPS at .740 and the O's OPS at .864. Astros might be worth a shot, too, as Williams has good career numbers vs the Braves (though none in '07) while J.J.Reyes has been pretty shaky; Astros hit much better against lefties, which doesn't hurt. Padres will have a monster line with Peavy pitching, undoubtedly, but he's got pretty bad career numbers vs the D'Backs and Petit hasn't looked too bad, not to mention the fact that the D'Backs were OPS .869 the past 7 days while the Padres were OPS .716, with most of that away from Petco for the Pads.

Indians will be right around 60% (Westbrook-Wright) but the line should be greater than -150 meaning no value there. Similar problem for the Yankees who will see a probability in the mid-60's but a line that kills any value (Clemens-Garland). Twins will be over 70% (Santana-Perez) but, of course, the line will be outta sight; I might try the runline, at -120 or better, especially if the Twins can produce tonight (chit...I hope not).

For totals, I really need to see the numbers, but overs look possible in Milwaukee, Florida (Hirsh-Vanden Hurk) and Cleveland. The under looks possible in San Diego (as usual).

Without even seeing the lines, I can tell that Thursday is going to be a very quiet day for me.

Will do my post probably sometime between 11 pm and 1 am.
Hendrix willing.

GL today