Wednesday Baseball -an early one
- Thread starter Jord20
- Start date
The Cards lineup is a joke. They don't have enough offense to pull a rabbit out of their ass this year.
They have been killing me all season including today.
They have been killing me all season including today.
Well, I over thought that one. I blew it. Bombs - you should have known to fade that one. The "sharp square" play cashes. Locke got lucky early, and it held up. I blew it.
Digging into night card now.
Shit
Digging into night card now.
Shit
They haven't been killing me at all this season, but I agree with your first statement completely
Rangers look good. Too bad I laid off the over. Erasmo gonna' Erasmo :mj07: :facepalm:
First, the easy ones :0
Mets and Over
Cubs
Bo Sox
Twinks
Oaky and Over
First, the easy ones :0
Mets and Over
Cubs
Bo Sox
Twinks
Oaky and Over
Jord, I have a question for you bud. You are one of the few people that make me re-think a play if we're against one another, but more often than not, we seem to be on the same sides. Do you think late Cards drop from -128 to -110 was because of the Buccs being the "sharp" side? Or did someone just know Waino wasn't gonna have it today? Sometimes I feel like I get trapped chasing the late line that the SHARPS bet down, and I'm having a tough time differentiating between lines that just seem off (A's last night), and lines that get hammered by the SHARP bettors right before gametime. I bet $100 on the Pirates ml because of the low line on Waino, but you made a statement before the game that has had me re-thinking my strategy all day long, win or lose. You said you weren't falling for the drop on the Cards line, and even though it lost, I would love to have that kind of confidence to go against a big drop on a Top 10 pitcher. Was it a gut feel for you, or was it mainly a fade on Locke? I've only been doing this about 6 yrs, so sometimes I feel like I over-look the obvious. Haha Didn't mean to ramble, but I'm genuinely interested in your POV. Thanks in advance
- Sep 1, 2012
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Brad let me chime in...When it's the first and only game like a last and only game the line moves are always more drastic. Today the move was steady towards PITT because WAINO has been below AVG last few starts. Regardless of his historical #'s vs PITT which are amazing. I love to watch certain books and their movement. Waino looks tired to as he has the last few games I think his ERA is near 5 last 4.
I can answer this in more detail later, but real quickly...
This was a gut play (they tend to get me in trouble!) more than anything. My thoughts on the line, were that they opened it last night a tad bit high, knowing they would see early action on Locke by the sharps (they did), and that the public would drive it back it up... when the public didn't drive it back up, and then Cutch was also in the lineup, it seems like you had everyone on Pitt. When Waino got down to -115, and stayed there, I had to take it based on value. Now, I'm usually not a big Value guy... I just like to go with who I think is going to win, and not get too caught up in a few cents... but I liked my chances with the pitching matchup at that price. I'm all over the place here, I tried to be quick, but I couldn't.
Bottom line, I over thought this one and got confused, IN HINDSIGHT. BUT, Waino was off, the Cards had tons of chances, and I still felt in the game all the way until the end. Locke worked his garbage magic again. ALL that being said, if I just looked at the numbers, and the line moves, and ignored the fact that Jeff Locke BLOWS, I would have played the Bucs (although still the over).
Baseball is a long and arduous season, with tons of plays that you will lose on... even if you were right. I had the stros last night, but I don't necessarily feel it was the right side. That game was a toss-up - you just happened to lose.
I have been doing this 20 years now, with HUGE volumes, so I like to think I have a knack for line moves and reasons. They are streaky, but baseball steam moves have been pretty solid the past few weeks. I have found myself taking a LOT of bad numbers, and still cashing. You just have to keep adjusting.
I'm not sure I even answered your question. If not, feel free to fire back. Or, I can try again later.
Cheers, Brad.
I agree with the BOLD. I have found that I often look too much into moves on the one-off games.
Losing every close tennis match today too. Winning sets 6-2, 6-3, and losing every close set and match.
This Mets game is a mirror image of the Bucs game according to line set and moves... let's see what happens
Jord, Fresh, thanks for replies. I'm sure you guys have been doing this a lot longer than I have, so I continue to grow from the knowledge on this site. I feel like I've learned more in the last year than I have over the previous five! Haha; Jord- you did answer my question. It seems that the bottom line is, no matter how much work I put in, sometimes I'm gonna be on the wrong side of certain lines; that's why bankroll management is key! I've gone from a $100-$200 (per day) player, to a $200-$600 player in the last year, so I feel the wins/losses much much more. I couldn't imagine having $18-25,000 in play every night, but I would love to be at a point in my life where that was a possibility. I'm content where I am right now, but I love to hear the different styles of cappers on here. Thanks for taking the time to respond. I'll stop clogging up your thread now. Hahaha
What an F job Puig was. Had it in the bag like 4 times. WTF.
Sort of balanced out though by that Ito retirement. That was huge. I should have put 2 dimes on Ito instead of 1. Stevy J is not a -400 type player.
