Wednesday Bowls

[Smitty]

Armed Forces Bowl

houston (-4) 1 unit. the first matchup between these two teams was also on a 'neutral' field in texas, as they played in dallas. i know that was 3 months ago, but hopefully houston can build on the momentum they had at the end of that game, as they scored the last 21 points. that experience, plus the extra practice time, should neutralize any improvements to the air force offense they gained from the freshman who's now starting at qb. IF houston can get a lead, it could be a long day for the falcons, as they are not built to come from behind.

strong lean to the over

 

[Smitty]

Sun Bowl

Sun Bowl

this is one of those games that, after it's over (and probably during the game), i'll be asking myself... why the f--- did i bet on dave wannstedt over mike riley? WHY???

pitt (+1) 1 unit. betting pitt games is really pretty simple... bet the 'dog. the last 2 seasons, you would have gone 8-3 both years. it's just so difficult for me to bet on dave wannstedt. and, outside of lesean mccoy, this pitt team isn't that good. but they're going against an oregon state team that may be without both rogers brothers; those guys were the heart of their offense. plus the beavers will have some serious motivation issues, after losing to their arch rivals in the season finale to knock them out of the rose bowl.

under (51.5) 1 unit. only thing keeping this from being a bigger play is the aforementioned motivation for osu. IF they come to play, they can bottle up mccoy and shut down the pitt offense. and i don't see the beavers scoring much without the rogers'.

 

[Smitty]

Music City Bowl

Music City Bowl

Vanderbilt (+3.5) 2 units. if you believe motivation plays a role in the outcome of bowl games, here is the game for you. bc comes in off a disappointing loss in the acc championship game. vandy is playing their first bowl game since 1842 (roughly). they were led in that historic mcgillicuddy's shaving cream bowl game by player/coach abraham lincoln. that's right, his famous beard was first grown as a 'playoff beard'. anyways... strange things happen in bowl games, but this is a battle of two inept offenses. bc's offense should struggle because of their freshman quarterback. in the last 3 games (davis' only significant playing time), he completed 42 of 90 passes (47%). on the other side of the ball, vandy's offense is just plain bad. nickson is terrible and adams has been very inconsistant. all this adds up to a very low-scoring game, and i'll take what is basically the home dog.

under (41) 1 unit. may as well tack on an under play.

 

[Smitty]

Smitty.com Bowl

Smitty.com Bowl

new sponsor for the former insight.com bowl.

minnesota (+8) 1 unit. big drop in this line. i don't love the game, but minnesota did go 5-0 ATS away from home this year. plus you really have to wonder about the motivation for kansas. they played in a bcs bowl game last year and they got revenge against their archrival in the last game of the season this year. on paper, kansas should dominate, but we know how much that means in bowl games.

 

[Smitty]

Chick Bowl

Chick Bowl

sorry, i abbreviated the name of the bowl game. sounds a lot more fun this way, doesn't it?

georgia tech (-4) 2 units. only thing that scares me is this seems too easy. and that's never a good thing. after a national championship last year, lsu has really fallen. 7-5 overall is bad enought, but 2-9 ATS. wow. there's still plenty of talent there, but they've been playing with a hangover all year. in case nobody knew, this season reinforced the importance of solid qb play. anyways... they cannot possibly be motivated to play in the chick bowl. and an unmotivated/unfocused team cannot stop the option. georgia tech has had a much better year under bobby johnson than anybody expected. i think they'd be excited to play in any bowl game, but a shot at the defending national champs? and a home crowd? yeah, they'll be ready. i'm always leery of teams basically playing home games in a bowl, but gt should be ok.