Wednesday CBB 1/24

[WhatsHisNuts]

YTD: 20-13

I was only going to roll with two games (Nebraska and Arky), but I decided to fade another capper with the TT and Maryland plays.

Arkansas -5.5 at South Carolina
Nebraska +1.5 over Texas
Maryland -4 over Georgia Tech
Texas Tech +2.5 over Texas A&M (6)

Thoughts:
Arky is tough on the road and SC gets blown out....a lot. Line should be 4.

Nebraska should be favored here. WW talked me into it, but I would have pulled the trigger anyway. :SIB

Maryland should only be favored by 1.5, but I still wasn't sold until I saw the right guy betting GT, lol.

Texas Tech should be getting 4 here. Seems to good to be true. Again, I saw the right guy on the other side, so I pulled the trigger after himmin' and hawwin around.

Games that were on the radar but I passed on:
Georgia -1 Coming off that close loss to Bama scares me a bit.
LSU -6.5 Line is tight, but too much action going LSU's way.
NM State -2.5 BYU should be favored, but I'm just gonna stay away.

 

[Tank22]

Be careful with Arkansas on the road. They are 5-34 on the road under Heath. You can just about bet then blindly at home. They are playing a little better.

 

[Wise and Wiser]

Hey, let's talk more about that Kentucky game. I had that one circled too. Maybe we can work together to come up with a play. What do your numbers say? Who should be favored and by how much? My system leans towards Kentucky in this one.

 

[gsp]

Don't place too much faith in home wins in the SEC. Anyone can beat anybody at home in this league. I come up with the line anywhere from -3 to a pk. Ark has only one road win this year. Granted, S Car has looked pretty bad lately. Good luck.

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

Hey, let's talk more about that Kentucky game. I had that one circled too. Maybe we can work together to come up with a play. What do your numbers say? Who should be favored and by how much? My system leans towards Kentucky in this one.

My numbers say Georgia -2. Much like yourself, I work with recent games only and I have nothing on Kentucky (which is better than bad info) and a couple concerns with Georgia (coming off a tough loss and they are in the midst of a very difficult stretch of games).

Kentucky might be the best play here, but they are on the road....which makes it hard to play IMO.

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

S Car has looked pretty bad lately.

Here's the thing, S Carolina has looked like dogsh*t against decent teams...with one recent exception - a 3 point loss to Tennessee. If they finally got up to play a big opponent and still came up short, they might not have enough in the tank to compete with Arky.

Recent games for USC (1/7 - 1/20):
(9) Kansas - lost by 16
at Georgia - lost by 14
(2) Florida - lost by 34
(25) Kentucky - lost by 38
at (22) Tennessee - lost by 3

IMO, this team is ready to be throttled....again. Arkansas has two things against them here, a big win on Saturday and they are on the road.

Good luck today.

EDIT - Line is higher than I show it should be in this game....which makes me like it even more.

 

[Canucksfan]

Just curious as to why you like Nebraska so much tonight? I live in Nebraska and follow the Huskers and Bluejays very closely. Nebraska does not have that good of a team this year. Additionally, Texas is 8-1 straight up against Nebraska since 1997. Not trying to bash or anything, I'd just like more insight into the game. Simply saying that Nebraska "deserves to be favored" in this game and then not backing that up with any reasons doesn't do it for me. Nebraska has two very small guards that Texas will exploit all game long. Plus, Texas should be able to neutralize Maric in the half court. NU will try and slow the game down big time to stay in it, but I don't believe they can beat Texas. The only real negative Texas has going against them is that they are on the road again, but Nebraska sure ain't no Okie State or Villanova. Any additional insight would be appreciated. Thanks.

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

Just curious as to why you like Nebraska so much tonight? I live in Nebraska and follow the Huskers and Bluejays very closely. Nebraska does not have that good of a team this year. Additionally, Texas is 8-1 straight up against Nebraska since 1997. Not trying to bash or anything, I'd just like more insight into the game. Simply saying that Nebraska "deserves to be favored" in this game and then not backing that up with any reasons doesn't do it for me. Nebraska has two very small guards that Texas will exploit all game long. Plus, Texas should be able to neutralize Maric in the half court. NU will try and slow the game down big time to stay in it, but I don't believe they can beat Texas. The only real negative Texas has going against them is that they are on the road again, but Nebraska sure ain't no Okie State or Villanova. Any additional insight would be appreciated. Thanks.

Sorry for the late response, but I work the afternoon shift and am done posting at 1:30pm most days.

Just for future reference, most of my comments regarding what the line should or shouldn't be is via the Sagarin power ratings. I do zero matchup/statistical analysis. I'm much more concerned with opening lines vs power ratings and recent/upcoming games.

If you see me posting info on specific players or defensive strategies, fade the hell out of me because I'm in over my head.

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

Finished the day at 3-1 and never would have thought that if one game was a loser, Arky would be it. i almost doubled up on this bet but decided to go with the self-weighting strategy I've been using....even though Malmuth says it is not how sports bettors should operate.

Good thing I didn't talk myself into Kentucky...I was starting to rethink my original take.

 

[Canucksfan]

No prob bro! I appreciate the response and nice work last night!

 

[BadAngel]

Good job

 

[Wise and Wiser]

Good work bro! Yeah, we were lucky to get Nebraska. I didn't see the game, but I read that Texas missed the front end of a one and one with :02 left. Better to be lucky than good I guess. Good luck the rest of the week.