Wednesday July 18th 2007
yesterday: 5-7 -0.27
July: 70-70 +0.44
ml 40-31 +3.72
rl 2-4 -0.5
totals 16-18 -3.46
parlays 12-17 +0.68
system picks 0-2 yesterday; 18-10 in July (64%) (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 2-4 yesterday; 20-24 in July
system sides
team win% (line)value indicator
col 54% (-102)+3
Atl 59 (-157)-3
Wash 56 (+107)+7
Cubs 70 (-167)+7 RL 56 (+115)+9
phil 53 (+130)+9
Fla 60 (-137)+2
Mil 61 (-139)+2
mets 63 (-104)+12
Clev 55 (-135)-3
tex 62 (+115)+15
Bost 63 (-180)-2
Nyy 64 (-175)even
Tb 57 (-105)+5
Min 60 (-191)-6 det 40 (+180)+4
balt 57 (+104)+7
system totals
cin@Atl un8.5 70% (-112)+17 --Carlson is a decent UNDER-ump
hou@Wash un9 65 (-120)+10 --Bell is an acceptable UNDER-ump
mets@Sd un8 66 (-120)+11 --ump Reed is even
cws@Clev ov9 73 (-105)+21 --ump Joyce is even
tex@Oak un9 70 (+100)+20 --ump Guccione is a slight over-lean; I'd penalize this one, a bit, but not enough to get it below 65% so I'll leave it as a system call
kc@Bost ov10.5 68 (-110)+15 --ump Vanover was an under-lean for '05 and '06, but in '04 he was an OVER-lean, and same in '07 (12-8 over with a low K%)
balt@Seat un8 67 (-108)+15 --ump Fletcher is even (an over-lean, in limited work, the past year-and-a-half but an UNDER-ump for the 3 years previous); leaving this one, too
Jeez that took a while to complete. I would have done it during Tuesday night's games but somehow I slept right through until 2 am. One main concern was getting (early) decent lines for a few I like Wednesday, but they've either moved in my favour, anyway, or stayed put. As for Tuesday, it became a write-off as both system picks failed; Nats were in their game but blew it and the M's would have had a shot if O'Flaherty doesn't give up 5 in the 7th?M's pen blew that one for me. Fluked out with the Tigers, hit a nice under at Petco (barely) and managed to progress one of my IF plays?whoop-de-do?that's 1 out of 8 over the past 2 days?been kicking them off with a lot of totals, and the system totals aren't matching May's and June's performances?more IF's are likely from me in the future as I think that they're smarter than parlays (maybe that's not too difficult?to be "smarter" than parlays?). Survived an unattractive board so it's time to tackle one a little more appealing?
As I mentioned yesterday, Cubs, Mets and Rangers are where most of my money is going today. I lowered the Cubs call a few points from my original due to them losing Tuesday; still a system pick, here; I'll continue to ride Carlos while he's hot, the Cubs are hot in general (despite Tuesday), and the Giants are rather cold (desp.Tue); knew it would be costly; Giants Cain has cooled off his past 4 starts; I might split up my play for moneyline and runline, here, as I think that the Cubbies will produce off of Cain and Co. Mets look even better after yesterday's game?this line opened higher and has come down which surprises me; Padres winning % right around 50 for home games vs righties while Mets on the road to righties is closer to 60; Mets have a clear edge with the sticks, a substantial edge at starting pitcher (Maine's last couple have been so-so, for him, but he was great in 3 straight before that; Maddux has had 3 straight poor starts); Padres may have a slight bullpen edge but the Mets have the arms to close things down, fine, if Maine has a decent start?Padres BP has shown some weaknesses lately, too; I really like this play?I just need to decide just how much I like it. Rangers, as well, look a little more appealing after Tuesday's action; Millwood has been dynamite lately, has been dynamite in his career vs the A's, while DiNardo has looked rather ordinary now for his past 5 starts; seeing as the Rangers just scored 11 on 15 hits, vs a righty, at tough McAfee Col., I can see them easily topping the team total of 4.5 runs (their OPS vs lefties is about 30 points higher than against righties)?that's another possible play for me, as it's currently at +100?wouldn't touch it if I was to try the game UNDER (it's a system total) but I suspect I'll be steering clear of this game total as I'll be WAY on the Rangers. Nats appear to have some value but I don't know if I could stomach losing with them for 2 straight days. Phillies should have a shot if Kendrick's last game was any indication of things to come; I dunno?this series has become a tough call, what with the Dodgers easily taking game one then the Phillies exploding in game #2; spot #2 or 3 on an IF play is all I would try there, I think. D'Rays will have a decent shot; Kazmir was just dynamite in his last, vs Yanks, and Colon has been pretty shaky this season?Colon has great career numbers vs D'Rays, mind you; probably looking at a piece of Tampa, myself. Like the smokin' Zambrano, I think I might ride out Bedard while he's on fire; O's really lighting things up since the all-star break, despite missing Tejada, while the M's bats have kinda cooled off; both clubs prefer facing lefties, so that evens out (M's still with the edge at the plate, and a big edge in the bullpen); M's, to the all-star break, did win 78% of their home games to lefties, so this one would be small for me.
Totals are much less appealing than (the 3) sides, to me. I think that the over calls (Clevland,Boston) look a little better than the 5 under calls. Umpire helps the calls in Atlanta and Washington. If the Indians can hit Buehrle (they have in the past) then that total looks totally over (Indians OPS vs lefties about 20 points higher than it is vs righties, despite a better winning % vs righties). I need to examine these further to see if they're worth trying.
I should get this up, already.
It's after 6 am.
Be back to post Hendrix-only-knows as the morning progresses.
Will post picks eventually.
GL
yesterday: 5-7 -0.27
July: 70-70 +0.44
ml 40-31 +3.72
rl 2-4 -0.5
totals 16-18 -3.46
parlays 12-17 +0.68
system picks 0-2 yesterday; 18-10 in July (64%) (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 2-4 yesterday; 20-24 in July
system sides
team win% (line)value indicator
col 54% (-102)+3
Atl 59 (-157)-3
Wash 56 (+107)+7
Cubs 70 (-167)+7 RL 56 (+115)+9
phil 53 (+130)+9
Fla 60 (-137)+2
Mil 61 (-139)+2
mets 63 (-104)+12
Clev 55 (-135)-3
tex 62 (+115)+15
Bost 63 (-180)-2
Nyy 64 (-175)even
Tb 57 (-105)+5
Min 60 (-191)-6 det 40 (+180)+4
balt 57 (+104)+7
system totals
cin@Atl un8.5 70% (-112)+17 --Carlson is a decent UNDER-ump
hou@Wash un9 65 (-120)+10 --Bell is an acceptable UNDER-ump
mets@Sd un8 66 (-120)+11 --ump Reed is even
cws@Clev ov9 73 (-105)+21 --ump Joyce is even
tex@Oak un9 70 (+100)+20 --ump Guccione is a slight over-lean; I'd penalize this one, a bit, but not enough to get it below 65% so I'll leave it as a system call
kc@Bost ov10.5 68 (-110)+15 --ump Vanover was an under-lean for '05 and '06, but in '04 he was an OVER-lean, and same in '07 (12-8 over with a low K%)
balt@Seat un8 67 (-108)+15 --ump Fletcher is even (an over-lean, in limited work, the past year-and-a-half but an UNDER-ump for the 3 years previous); leaving this one, too
Jeez that took a while to complete. I would have done it during Tuesday night's games but somehow I slept right through until 2 am. One main concern was getting (early) decent lines for a few I like Wednesday, but they've either moved in my favour, anyway, or stayed put. As for Tuesday, it became a write-off as both system picks failed; Nats were in their game but blew it and the M's would have had a shot if O'Flaherty doesn't give up 5 in the 7th?M's pen blew that one for me. Fluked out with the Tigers, hit a nice under at Petco (barely) and managed to progress one of my IF plays?whoop-de-do?that's 1 out of 8 over the past 2 days?been kicking them off with a lot of totals, and the system totals aren't matching May's and June's performances?more IF's are likely from me in the future as I think that they're smarter than parlays (maybe that's not too difficult?to be "smarter" than parlays?). Survived an unattractive board so it's time to tackle one a little more appealing?
As I mentioned yesterday, Cubs, Mets and Rangers are where most of my money is going today. I lowered the Cubs call a few points from my original due to them losing Tuesday; still a system pick, here; I'll continue to ride Carlos while he's hot, the Cubs are hot in general (despite Tuesday), and the Giants are rather cold (desp.Tue); knew it would be costly; Giants Cain has cooled off his past 4 starts; I might split up my play for moneyline and runline, here, as I think that the Cubbies will produce off of Cain and Co. Mets look even better after yesterday's game?this line opened higher and has come down which surprises me; Padres winning % right around 50 for home games vs righties while Mets on the road to righties is closer to 60; Mets have a clear edge with the sticks, a substantial edge at starting pitcher (Maine's last couple have been so-so, for him, but he was great in 3 straight before that; Maddux has had 3 straight poor starts); Padres may have a slight bullpen edge but the Mets have the arms to close things down, fine, if Maine has a decent start?Padres BP has shown some weaknesses lately, too; I really like this play?I just need to decide just how much I like it. Rangers, as well, look a little more appealing after Tuesday's action; Millwood has been dynamite lately, has been dynamite in his career vs the A's, while DiNardo has looked rather ordinary now for his past 5 starts; seeing as the Rangers just scored 11 on 15 hits, vs a righty, at tough McAfee Col., I can see them easily topping the team total of 4.5 runs (their OPS vs lefties is about 30 points higher than against righties)?that's another possible play for me, as it's currently at +100?wouldn't touch it if I was to try the game UNDER (it's a system total) but I suspect I'll be steering clear of this game total as I'll be WAY on the Rangers. Nats appear to have some value but I don't know if I could stomach losing with them for 2 straight days. Phillies should have a shot if Kendrick's last game was any indication of things to come; I dunno?this series has become a tough call, what with the Dodgers easily taking game one then the Phillies exploding in game #2; spot #2 or 3 on an IF play is all I would try there, I think. D'Rays will have a decent shot; Kazmir was just dynamite in his last, vs Yanks, and Colon has been pretty shaky this season?Colon has great career numbers vs D'Rays, mind you; probably looking at a piece of Tampa, myself. Like the smokin' Zambrano, I think I might ride out Bedard while he's on fire; O's really lighting things up since the all-star break, despite missing Tejada, while the M's bats have kinda cooled off; both clubs prefer facing lefties, so that evens out (M's still with the edge at the plate, and a big edge in the bullpen); M's, to the all-star break, did win 78% of their home games to lefties, so this one would be small for me.
Totals are much less appealing than (the 3) sides, to me. I think that the over calls (Clevland,Boston) look a little better than the 5 under calls. Umpire helps the calls in Atlanta and Washington. If the Indians can hit Buehrle (they have in the past) then that total looks totally over (Indians OPS vs lefties about 20 points higher than it is vs righties, despite a better winning % vs righties). I need to examine these further to see if they're worth trying.
I should get this up, already.
It's after 6 am.
Be back to post Hendrix-only-knows as the morning progresses.
Will post picks eventually.
GL
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