Wednesday July 4th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Wednesday July 4th 2007

yesterday: 7-4 +1.28
July: 17-21 -5.47
ml 10-11 -2.97
totals 6-10 -3.5
parlays 1-0 +1.0
system picks 2-1 yesterday; 10-5 the past 5 days (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 2-1 yesterday; 5-4 in July and 17-8 the past 8 days

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

cubs 59% (-155)-2
sf 56 (-110)+3
phil 62 (-117)+8
Pitt 53 (-110)even
Stl 52 (-125)-4
mets 62 (-133)+4
Sd 65 (-210)-3 RL 50 (+105)+1
Lad 53 (-113)-1
min 62 (-118)+7
Bost 73 (-220)+4 RL 60 (-109)+7
Oak 56 (-128)-1
Cws 53 (-131)-4
Det 60 (-128)+3
seat 54 (-108)+2
laa 67 (-174)+3 RL 53 (-110)even

system totals

cubs@Wash un9 78% (-115)+24 --ump Reilly is even
phil@Hou ov9 76 (+100)+26 --Barksdale a decent over-ump, including 11-5 this year
fla@Sd un7.5 73 (+109)+25 --ump Davidson is even
min@Nyy un8.5 74 (-125)+18 --Johnson?if it's him?is a bit of an over-ump, including 6-1 this year; if he's skipped for Iassogna (they sometimes do that) then we'll have a better under-ump here; might be worth a shot no matter what as Yankees (save Tuesday) really aren't hitting lately?especially against lefties; Mussina coming around lately, too and, as you probably noticed, Santana is in top form these days.


I'm looking at the Phillies, Mets, Twins, Bosox RL, Tigers and Angels. Maybe not all of them but who knows. All 4 posted totals look decent, but I don't know about taking a chance on the Marlins Johnson?he's looked pretty bad in 3 since the DL; he looked a little better in his last, and faces a fairly poor-hitting team in the Padres, so you never know; Young should have a stellar game as Marlins bats have been quiet lately. Padres are another option but I hate the price, and playing the Padres runline is a risky proposition always, even more so at Petco.

System sides went 11-4 yesterday, so maybe there is a Hendrix.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Some team totals I'm looking at, with relative system numbers (+ for overs, - for unders).

Nationals under 4 -140 (-15)
--Nat's haven't scored 5 for THEIR PAST 13 GAMES; Nats OPS .557 the past 7 days

phillies over 4.5 -125 (+12)
--phillies have been producing in this series (5 then 4) but haven't picked up a W; Astros Sampson has been mediocre the past few weeks; Phillies OPS .835 the past 7 days

mets over 5.5 +115 (+10)
--Fogg has been cold for a couple of starts now; Mets due for a break-out game and Coors seems like a good spot for it; Mets OPS .760 the past 7 days

Rockies under 5 -155 (-6)
--kinda pricey...moneyline looks MUCH smarter; I think that Hernandez gets the job done here; Rockies OPS .775 the past 7 days

marlins under 3 +100 (-20)
--If anybody can close the door right now, at any Park, then it's Young at Petco; his era at home 0.94, opponent's hitting .164; one drawback to this play is that the Marlins haven't scored under 3 runs for 6 of their past 7 (scored only 3 against Braves lefty James and scored only 1 against Padres lefty David Wells...earlier this season the Marlins WERE hitting lefties but having trouble with righties...maybe times are changing...this one still might be worth a shot at +100; Marlins OPS .745 the past 7 days

Yankees under 4 -130 (-18)
--this would be my first Yankees UNDER, if I try it; Santana is smokin'; Yankees, despite scoring 8 Tuesday, have an OPS of only .606 the past 7 days

Bosox over 6 -115 (+8)
--Facing Jackson here should be a good time for the currently hot Bosox; Bosox OPS .776 the past 7 days; runline might be a better play

angels over 6 +100 (+7)
--Rangers Wright can be hit, and Ameriquest Field should surrender some more in this one; Angels OPS only .723 past 7 days

Rangers under 4.5 -135 (-10)
--Weaver has done good work vs Rangers before, including at Ameriquest; Rangers prefer lefties, too (OPS vs L .812, vs R only .741); Rangers OPS only .705 past 7 days


I might try one or two. Maybe better options on the moneylines, though the Phillies might score and lose again (Astros doin' good work vs lefties, and Hamels has cooled off lately); Astros doing good work in general lately, OPS .851 the past 7 days.

I'm still undecided as to how to tackle Wednesday.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

And, in the end, the love you take is equal to the love you make.

And, in the end, the love you take is equal to the love you make.

PLAYS

system sides

phillies -117 1.17/1
twins -118 2.36/2
Bosox -1.5 -109 1.63/1.5

other sides

mets -130 3.25/2.5
Padres -1.5 +105 1/1.05
Tigers -128 1.28/1
angels -169 1.69/1

totals

cubs@Wash un9 -115 0.57/0.5
phil@Hou ov9 +100 0.5/0.5
phillies over 4.5 -125 0.62/0.5
marlins under 3 +100 0.5/0.5
min@Nyy un8.5 -125 0.62/0.5

3-teamer
--Nationals under 4
--Rockies under 5
--Yankees under 4
+400
0.5/2

2-teamer
--Padres ml
--Bosox ml
+115
1.73/2


Back in the ring to take another swing. Especially hoping that Santana and O.Hernandez have good games. Phillies, Tigers and Angels should all produce today; I can't expect a sweep of these 3 as they were all losers yesterday. Totals I'm taking it easy on as the sizzling June that I had seems to have chilled out. Looking for my second winning day in a row, here, but I'm not expecting to get even, yet, for July; I'm already down over 5 units for the month. I'll gladly take a plus anything as my confidence level is not at it's peak?give me another 11-4 on system sides, like yesterday, and maybe I can enter Thursday with a full head of steam.

I've 'capped Thursday. Six of thirteen games should be at 60% or higher. Five of those might be 65% or higher. I think I'll have my highest rated SIDE of the season tomorrow, with the Bosox (Beckett-Howell) looking at an 83% if they win tonight, which is likely; we're probably looking at a -250 to -300 for this one, so I'll be curious to see what the runline pays (likely -120 to -140 for the runline, here). Brewers will have a good shot in the Sheets-Gorzelanny matchup, and we may see a decent line as Gorzelanny will get some respect from the linesmakers; up to -140 and I'll be interested. Padres will have a similar % in the Kim-Peavy matchup, though I'm not expecting a decent line there; we're no doubt going to see it above -200 like it is today; no value there but I'll be interested in the runline if the Padres sticks show that they can produce tonight. Mets' Maine is on fire currently, and will take on Jennings in Houston; the line should be slightly less than today's, for the Mets (say about -120 or -125) and I'll probably try the Mets, but I'll be more inclined if we see either a Mets win tonight or a loss by Houston?if neither of those happen then I'll be kinda wary of the play. Hudson and Penny will be going at it at Dodger Stadium, and this one sounds like a solid under play as both starters are on fire lately; despite Dodger Stadium being a decent pitcher's park, the Dodgers have really been scorching the ball at home, so I won't be pounding the likely 7.5?gimme an 8 and maybe we can talk. Sabathia-Verlander should be a great matchup, but don't ask me for a winner there; I've got the Tigers tentatively 'capped at 55%, but Verlander hasn't been good vs the Indians in the past, and he's coming off a dog of a game, so this one is a likely pass for me; probably looking at an 8 or an 8.5, which is probably too low considering all the cirumstances here. Angels will be a huge road favorite (Escobar-Tejeda) as they are today, but if they drop this one with Weaver then I'm a spectator for their match tomorrow; Angels get the win and I might try another unit on them tomorrow, probably it will be a similar price (-160 to -170) and it might be a good game to keep away from regardless as Escobar is coming off a rare stinker. A's will start a series with Seattle (Gaudin-Batista) and I'll have the A's with a big number tomorrow; M's bats have gone quiet (OPS .705 past 7 days) while the A's are scorching the ball currently (OPS .919 last 7 days); we still may see a decent line for the A's, here; at -130 to -140 it should still be a system pick.

That's the report, for now.
I'm feeling a little better than yesterday, just in case you noticed my negative attitude then, so hopefully I can just take things as they come and stop letting every loss get to me too much; I CAN stand the heat; I'm just thinking it might be a good time to redo the kitchen, if yaknowhatimean. I'm not 100% sure that I do, so don't worry about it.

Just kick some ass today.
See you tomorrow (today).
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

updated system statistics

updated system statistics

I've put forth a question, in a couple of MJ's forums, looking for anybody that uses a % formula to assess lines. As such, I figure that it makes sense to post my current stats here, in case anybody comes looking (which may be a long shot).

Regardless...here it is.

Starting out July at 27-16 (62.8% winners) so maybe I can have a repeat of May's ass-kicking; there's always hope.

RESULTS (W-L)

???.?full....?..April?....May?....June??July???August?..Sept?..October
Total..672-514..203-165..249-170..220-179..27-16
51??...49-41?.17-15??14-13??18-13?.2-1
52??...42-35?.13-13??15-10??14-12?.3-1
53??...44-38?.16-16??15-10??13-12?.2-0
54??...41-40?..14-8?...14-16??13-16?.2-1
55??...42-37?..9-12??.15-14??18-11?.2-3
56??...36-30..?17-4??.12-12??7-14?...1-1
57??...35-24?...8-6??..20-11??7-7??.2-0
58??...36-24?...8-11??11-5??..17-8?...1-2
59??...37-25?..11-11?..15-9??..11-5?...1-2
60??...32-29..?12-9??.11-12??9-8??.1-1
61??...33-20?..10-8??.16-8??..7-4??.2-0
62??...27-29?..10-8??.10-10??7-11?...2-1
63??...38-33?..13-9??.12-8??..13-16?..0-1
64??...29-21?..7-10??.11-6??..11-5?....0-1
65??...31-18?..10-4??.10-9??..11-5??1-0
66??...31-14?...9-5??..10-5??..12-4??0-1
67??...16-11.......6-2??..7-6???3-3??..1-0
68??...15-8?.....5-4??..5-1???5-3??..2-0
69??...6-6??...1-2??..3-2???2-2??..2-0
70??...12-7?.....2-2??..3-1???7-4
71??...12-4?.....1-2??..5-0???6-2
72??...6-4??...1-1??..4-1???1-2
73??...7-1??...1-1??..4-0???2-0
74??...6-5??...2-1??..3-0???1-4
75??...2-5??...0-1??..1-1???1-3
76??...1-2??...0-0??..1-0???0-2
77??...2-0??...0-0??..0-0???2-0
78??...2-1??...0-0??..1-0???1-1
79??...0-1???0-0??..0-0??...0-1
80??...2-1???0-0??..1-0??...1-1
totals..182-134?..45-53?..61-41?...76-40?..5-4
(posted system totals)

MADJACK'S POSTINGS
overall W-L478-420..122-111..180-144?176-165
overall +/-.+54.57??-4.21?.+51.40??.+7.38
ml W-L?.275-177?.80-45?..106-66?...89-66
ml +/-??+57.96?.+12.54?..+37.40?....+8.02
rl W-L??.30-35??..9-10?..10-11??11-14
rl +/-??..-12.58?...-1.8??..-0.97??..-9.81
totals W-L..129-100...25-22?..45-39??..59-39
totals +/-?+25.56?...-5.2?...+4.15??..+26.61
parlays W-L..44-108.?8-34?..19-28?...17-46
parlays +/-?-16.37?...-9.75?..+10.82?.-17.44
system picks..132-80?..30-20?..52-23?.50-37


That's about the best that I can line things up; using a word document.

Perhaps not overly impressive--June was a tough month--but certainly good enough to proceed with my current format. 70's were a rough spot in June, which was a total downer as there were several system picks in there. Bosox, today, are my first 70 of the month so I'm expecting to start off July on the right foot for 70's; Bosox dropping this one to Jackson and company would be a big surprise.

Probably the last word from me until after some sleep.

Let me know if anybody has tried a % approach to 'capping games.
I can tell you from experience that it is not easy, but I can't fathom any other way to assess lines.

To tell you the truth, I had my greatest success in this manor during the 2001 and 2002 NFL seasons. It took quite a bit of work, and the best results were during the second half of the season, but the highest rated plays, for the WHOLE season, came in at 70%. I'll likely try to re-implement that system this year. No matter what, the baseball season offers far more opportunities than the NFL schedule, so I'm particularly interested in whether or not anyone else has tried to come up with a formula for %'s on baseball games.

Any input in this matter is appreciated.

GL Wednesday

 

[Hooks]

Nice work ,Mike, Pitt. looks like a play. Can I pull the trigger?
Had some luck and hit a 4 teamer.Your plays have a good feel to them today, I can't get the team runs scored props here..
Keep it going Bro, Hooks

 

[MoeshY-13-]

Gl today EX!! thanks again for all the work you put it!

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Thanks guys...I appreciate it.

Nice call on the Pirates, Hooks; system called it but it was a low call so I stayed away.

Man...went damn near perfect in the day games, and then the Mets jump out early 3-0...I thought I was looking at some real ass-whipping today.
As it is I think I should pull a plus; just need the flippin' Padres to score a dang run and bag that one...I got the runline but I'll gladly take the win to save a big parlay.

C'mon Padres!

See you with Thursday's numbers shortly.

:SIB