wednesday ncaa basketball .......

[gman2]

just another reason why this is the best site on the net for gambling perspectives.

to paraphrase what bill said in a reply to my bc/notre dame thread from tuesday:

"first time ive seen you pick a team by not picking a team....sense that youd rather pass on this game...dont hear any energy toward the play... ill wait for a more passionate call"

already had placed my wager, but was driving home thinking about what bill said. it was a few minutes after tipoff. while im driving, i was thinking "wow. what a perceptive post. he is absolutely right".

i wasnt betting on a team that i felt confident would WIN. instead, i put my money down on a team that i thought would find a way to LOSE. while i have no regrets on the play, what you said bill was so dead on the money and will stick with me for awhile and help me down the road. i very much appreciate your post from tuesday evening. replies like that are vital to the board, so thanks

====================

big -- kent state flashes (sorry spang)
ball state cardinals
duke blue devils
big -- missouri over any number that comes out

 

[vinnie]

hey g,
What number do you come up with on that total ?

 

[Kdogg21]

like Kent St too G. GL tomarrow

 

[gman2]

vinnie:

its not so much that i come up with a number (because im not a numbers capper), but i think one of the best spots to zero in on in college basketball for totals is middle of the season non-conference games. the coaches cant convince their guys that the games have any importance (because almost all of the time, they dont) and the defense is incredibly soft on both sides. the intensity level on defense is nowhere near what it is during a conference game. this has been a VERY good 'system' for me. and i somehow i missed a perfect opportunity last week when providence played virginia. i didnt even catch that game on the schedule but it was another easy over.

throw in team specific variables:

1) unlv is coming off a game in which utah made them slow the game down and play in the halfcourt, which is not the rebs style at all. theyre gonna find missouri a lot more willing to get up and down

2) this game, if im not mistaken, was a shootout last year (believe its a home/home series) and snyder and kruger are not gonna be able to get their guys to buy into any 'defense' for this one. think this is gonna be a game where they roll the ball out and let the athletes run up and down for 40:00.

a lot of words above, but the main point is that its a middle-of-the-season non-conference game. overs, from my experience, hit at a VERY high clip.

edit to add:

the providence/virginia game last week was 98-79.

the unlv/missouri game last year was 94-60.

 

[gman2]

kent state
would probably have to go back quite a few years to find the last time akron was favored in this rivalry. just dont think akron is quite good enough to lay chalk against kent yet. in the coming years, probably. but not quite yet. for those not in the mac loop, i cant give any statistical reasoning or anything like that. just a strong gut feeling from being around the conference for awhile. this would be the best way i can put it: even though akron is the vegas chalk in this game, i think kent is going into it expecting to win, while akron, even at 13-6, is still going in with the underdog mentality of trying to pull an upset. i think akron has to play a near flawless game to cover this number. i will however, scale my bet back a little bit if spang comes strong with akron.

ball state
just dont trust miami on the road. even though theyre 4-5 away from oxford, which isnt exactly horrific, they still are just a different team when they travel. ball state had an inexplicable home loss to marshall a few days ago, but theyre very very tough at home. cards still right there in the hunt for the mac west title. aside from the marshall game, theyve been one of the best teams in the conference the last month.

duke
why is carolina favored? pretty easy. every talking head on espn, fox, and cbs makes it known that carolina is the best team in the country. and on paper, they absolutely are. everyone knows they lead the country in scoring and have dropped 100+ on a handful of teams this year. all that said, they should not be laying chalk on the road in cameron. if the line is supposed to tell us something, then it was also trying to tell us something when carolina was (inexplicably) favored over wake forest in winston-salem (and the deacs won going away). heels are the best team in the country, but the best team doesnt always win, especially at duke. could be mistaken, but last time duke was a dog to carolina in cameron, they won outright and beat (what i think) was #1 north carolina. ultimately, someone is going to have to get some defensive stops in this one, and i trust duke long before id trust carolina to get them. both teams can be explosive, but devils commit to defense better when they need to.

 

[lineguy]

Gman I think your capping is great but I would have to disagree with your KENT STATE play.

Akron plays extremely tough at home Gman. They outscore their opposition by 18 ppg at home while Kent State although a great team seems to struggle on the road as their 3-7 record shows proof of that.

I feel that Akron is favored in this game for a reason Gman and peple will like the +4.5 given to Kent State but Akron seems like a great home team .

 

[gman2]

lineguy:

based on the numbers, youre right. akron is outscoring the opposition by a large margin at home this year and kent is just 3-7 on the road. but unless something out of the ordinary happened with ticket distribution this year, kent state is gonna have a strong contingent of fans who will make the 15-minute drive to akron and negate some of the home court advantage for the zips. was surprised at the pro-kent section at the gm last year in akron. the bg/toledo rivalry and the akron/kent rivalry both draw (relatively) split crowds because of campus proximity.

im looking to see if spang can elucidate this matchup.

 

[lenniethelock]

actually akron outscores opps by over 19 a game,and normaly gets out to a good start,which on the road sometimes kent doesent,which is very important here in this down the road rivalry.akron actualy won this matchup last year in there house as 5.5 dogs.think they come out inspiered and win this one as well. boy he sure has them going in the right direction,alot quicker than i ever expected.

 

[lenniethelock]

g i said last week when people were wondering what nc duke line was going to be that no way would nc be favored here.and stated that if they were i would pound nc,due to the fact that i normaly dont have lines that far off.not just based on numbers but just this duke team has done nothing to deserve a dog role at home to anyone.im like you in the fact im not big on number crunching,more of just what i learn off each team,things that stick in your head bout certain games,conferences,teams etc.and just think that imo dukes looks to good to be true.gl either way

 

[spang]

No apologies needed my friend, but I will disqualify myself from offering any objective opinion on this game tonight. You know me well enough to know that in the past that I have never had a problem playing against the Zips when the numbers looked right. I have to tell you though that from a fans perspective I don't think that I have ever been so geeked up over a game as I am tonight. Dambrot has actually made it FUN to go down to the Jar and see the Zips again, and I have totally bought in to this team. I will however offer up some indisputable facts that are independent of any bias.

Zips still #1 in the mac in margin of victory
Zips # 2 offense in the mac
Zips #3 defense in the mac
Zips # 1 assist/turnover ratio in the mac
Zips 9-0 at home (5-1) ATS ( we remember that one loss ATS right?
Zips undoubtedly have the deepest bench/rotation in the mac.
Zips well rested with 5 prep days for this one, Kent just 2 days.

Just a final point that represents how far this team has come. Last week the Zips went into Anderson Arena where they never win and got zero points from leading scorer Peterson, and brought home a W. When you really think about that, it truly speaks volumes of the progress that this team has made. The line is just about where I thought it would be and I told myself that Akron would be a play at -6 or less. I am biased but I love Akron tonight.God knows I 've been wrong before, and I just hate those corksuckers from KSU

note to Lennie : I'm sure that G remembers last years game pretty well as he had a front row seat at the jar. As I recall we both cashed on Akron, please correct me if I am wrong G.

 

[spang]

It is true that about 15-20% of tonights crowd will be Kent backers

 

[lenniethelock]

just some thoughts not saying he doesent know the mac as well cause we all know he does.just really starting to get on the zips banwagon.last time i was at the jar was to lebron play against east liverpool.

 

[spang]

:mj22:

One other thing, keep an eye on that CMU total again tonight and the status of Nelson. I heard some interesting stuff from Jay Smith. He has had to take a run and gun team and do a complete 180 degree turn in philosophy, He nows calls his practices wars, complete with grabbing, elbowing, fighting etc. He knows his only chance to snag a win is to do it with D. Other than Watson, they have zero offensive options without Nelson.

God knows that Vegas was way off on their number sunday, and may still not have it right tonight.

 

[spang]

hey Lennie, if you would like to come up to a game in the future let me know, I can hook you up with a pair of tickets just about anytime..

 

[lenniethelock]

sometime we ll do that.last time hit bw3 before the game.catch a beer and a game always a good time.thanks man

 

[gman2]

spang/lennie:

great insight. appreciate the replies.
spang- the one that thats etched into my mind from the game we attended last season was how kent's crowd really energized the flashes IN akron. zips played a solid 1st half but then kent just caught akron with a big run where the flashes rallied off the ksu fan energy at the JAR. then zips showed some grit (or should i say tarver showed some grit, because he was in a zone and was the only one doing anything) and the zips fought back for the win.

im just not convinced that akron believes its the favorite going in.

btw- great info about cmu. its almost exactly what happened to cleveland state last year when garland had them go from running the court to walking the ball up every possession because of injury, and i cashed a ton of easy unders on them.

 

[Thunder Lips]

Gman, that was very atypical of you to play BC. I was surprised to see you on them. GL

 

[Bill]

I have no thoughts on the Akron/Kent game but enjoy the exchange between you and Spang (another of my FTFs).

The Ball State Kool-Aide went down easily and was refreshing. Should be easy money.

However, if I play the NC/Duke game, I would have to take the Heels for the following reasons:
1. Even scoring with 5 player in DD and no single scorer who, if shut down will cost the game.
2. True point guard who does score but understands his role is to run the team. (Biggest concern is his FT avg - it sucks and could hurt in a tight game)
3. No single player with avg more than 30 min/game.
4. 2nd in the Nation in Assist though they also T/O the ball too often.
5. AND with all the points they score, they lead the ACC in STL/G which means strong D and lots of points.

That said I hate to take any team playing in front of the "Cameron Crazies", but may take a small play just to add to the enjoyment of the game.

One last point. This game has frequently involved significant swings as first one team or the other would have an 8-10 point run. I think NC freshness of players will pay off in the final 10 minutes.

GLTA. Really looking forward to watching the Heels/Dukies.

Bill

 

[Irish]

Morning Gman

Looking at the UNC/Duke game do you think the Heels depth may cause problems for Duke?

GL
Irish

 

[THE KOD]

gman

Good luck tonight. I am leaning towards the Duke play. I like
to get the points with Duke at home.