greetings to all. missed last weekend due to vacation away from the 21st century in the mountains of nc. good for the soul and, hopefully, the handicapping focus of the mind. posted record stands at 56-46, bfgotw 1-2, double plays 1-1. about the best thing you can say about that is it ain't losing much, but it sure ain't gonna get mom that operation she's been needin'. tonight, with halloween in the air and all, i'm going with a rare midweek three way play on the game:
southern miss +3
smu/tcu under 43-
under 22 1st half, each play one unit each.
perfect situation for a contrarian play on smu imo. books opened line with tcu minus less than fg with tons of action on horned frogs. spread was destined to move to 3 or better and i bet there will be plenty of late smu action that was waiting for the point and that will keep it from moving much farther. some statistical support for tcu has drawn a lot of public money, but really looks like they have had the easier schedule. so miss rushing d stats especially skewed because 'bama ran for a million on them, tcu's skewed the other way because of their schedule. i expect the eagles to play much better in this situation, coming off a 2 pt loss to tcu in hattiesburg last year that cost them a bowl, and playing in a big nat'l tv game that is for control of the conference-usa title race and resulting bowl. so miss has a significant size edge on offense and i would think they will be fiercely committed to running the ball and keeping this game close. also can't see more than 3 tds in the first half unless there's a special teams or defensive score. i noticed what appears to be a difference in preparation between the two teams this week, with tcu taking monday off and so miss going full contact the same day. it will be interesting to see which approach pays dividends. in all, i expect this to be a hard-nosed, smack-'em-in-the-mouth kind of game, where either team might win on a last minute field goal. gl tonight in your plays.
southern miss +3
smu/tcu under 43-
under 22 1st half, each play one unit each.
perfect situation for a contrarian play on smu imo. books opened line with tcu minus less than fg with tons of action on horned frogs. spread was destined to move to 3 or better and i bet there will be plenty of late smu action that was waiting for the point and that will keep it from moving much farther. some statistical support for tcu has drawn a lot of public money, but really looks like they have had the easier schedule. so miss rushing d stats especially skewed because 'bama ran for a million on them, tcu's skewed the other way because of their schedule. i expect the eagles to play much better in this situation, coming off a 2 pt loss to tcu in hattiesburg last year that cost them a bowl, and playing in a big nat'l tv game that is for control of the conference-usa title race and resulting bowl. so miss has a significant size edge on offense and i would think they will be fiercely committed to running the ball and keeping this game close. also can't see more than 3 tds in the first half unless there's a special teams or defensive score. i noticed what appears to be a difference in preparation between the two teams this week, with tcu taking monday off and so miss going full contact the same day. it will be interesting to see which approach pays dividends. in all, i expect this to be a hard-nosed, smack-'em-in-the-mouth kind of game, where either team might win on a last minute field goal. gl tonight in your plays.
