wednesday ncaa........

[gman2]

been moneylining some dogs successfully. but gotta go the chalk route for wednesday:

(stronger) dayton (-7) over rhode island

one primary reason for this one, and one supplementary reason:

* when you looked at the faces of the rhode island kids at the end of the game saturday, they just looked absolutely crushed. they had the #2 team on the ropes and let it get away in the final 1:00. coaches can tell the ram players that this dayton game is important but theres no doubt in my mind rhode island gets drilled here and looks forward to the a-10 tourney. this is terrible spot for rhode island. second-to-last game of the year, rams almost pull a huge upset. now the a-10 tourney is up next after this game. i think rhode island will be done when they get off the bus.

* doesnt hurt that dayton has smacked rhode island around in recent meetings at home.

* in sum: last game of the season for rams. on the road. vs a team thats dominated em in this arena. all the while coming off a crushing defeat to joes. with the a-10 tourney next.

 

[ezpickin]

nice call on va and nice run as well...what do you mean "stronger"? Do you play it for 50% more? Twice as much? Pretty clear in the days of your unit plays, but this is a lot fuzzier...

 

[Superbear]

what do you think of MiOhio/Kent St. over 125? I think the "flashes" will dictate an uptempo game at home and will get Miami out of their defencive game plan

 

[gman2]

ezpickin:

stronger plays are generally double plays. but thats not set in stone when i divide up a dog on the spread/moneyline. the ambiguity is unintentional. i dont vary my bets as much anymore. halftime plays are smaller with the game plays having much more of an emphasis.

 

[gman2]

superbear:

thats a sharp total. the last 3 games at kent in this series have had 130, 130, and 128 points. both teams great defensively.

just throwin some stats out there (# is their ranking in the mac)

scoring defense:
miami #1 61.2
kent #2 64.2

fg % defense:
miami #6 42.9%
kent #2 41.4%

kent DOES score considerably more points at home, but i think this one stays in the halfcourt.

not recommending an under by any means, but just think the number will prove sharp and these two teams play very tight games and neither team gets many transition baskets.

 

[Superbear]

thanks,..the other ugly total I,m looking at is the Ohio St./Penn St. under 125.5 as I cant see the kittens scorring more than 47 points,..

the side and money line that is screaming at me to play them is Baylor,..looks like the home team allways wins in this "battle" while countless dozens are watching in the stands

 

[gman2]

maryland (+6.5) over north carolina state

* while state is coming off a loss, this is a desperate maryland team that needs a solid conference road win to solidify their resume. nc state dominated the 2nd half of the first meeting after the game was tied at halftime. im expecting maryland to lay it on the line tonight. if they dont get this win tonight, theyre basically sitting home barring a miracle run in the acc tourney. their game on saturday wont be enough to get em in. but if the terps can win here and then win at home on saturday- at 7-9 in the acc, that should be good enough. and my nc state sentiment hasnt changed. theyve been a good team for me recently, but theyre jacking way too many three up. and theyve regressed considerably since their duke upset in my opinion. terps need the outright win. im just playing for the +6.5 cover.

 

[Howie's Hot]

GL Gman...hope my flyers come thorugh for you...

How

 

[vinnie]

At last you got a play that falls into my system

By the way the other two that we had different sides on you won both. :thefinger

Now I have Rhode Island at least it's only a 2 unit play :shrug:

 

[Cappin Kirk]

Did you consider that Raymond Marshall's 14pts & 5 assists per game may not be in the lineup tonight when you capped this game? Is it still a play @-6.5 w/o him?

 

[gman2]

kirk:

this is more of an anti-rhode island play tonight. i dont expect the rams to be in any mental state to take advantage of that type of thing. gl if you choose to play the flyers.

edit: just for clarification- i DO take factor rosters and personnel into my plays. just feel like that wont factor into play in this particular game

 

[Cappin Kirk]

Thanks for the quick response, keep rollin'