<<<<<WEDNESDAY'S NIGHT PLAYS>>>>>
Seven plays tonight?..
WASHINGTON +8 vs. PORTLAND
Okay, so Michael Jordan is out with an injury. But this line is insane! Why would the Blazers -- who are just 12-15 SU on the road and 13-14 ATS this season be close to a double-digit favorite in a coast-to-coast road game? Wizards have been in a slump recently (4 straight losses), but were competitive in every game, collapsing late in the 4th quarter each time. At home, I suspect Wizards may pull together with Jordan out of the lineup and should keep this closer than the line indicates. Blazers may also take Wizards lightly with Jordan out (has to be a emotional letdown) and could get caught looking ahead to upcoming back-to-back road games coming up next at Toronto and Milwaukee. Last season, Wizards were a dismal team -- and Blazers were only a -6 point favorite in DC. Washington is clearly a better team this year, which tells me this line at -8 is off by ~4 points.
NEW JERSEY -2 vs. CHARLOTTE
Hornets are 0-9 this season as a home underdog. Hornets are also just 1-10 this season versus the NBA's top teams (top 6 in each conference). The pending move to New Orleans has to be on the Hornets minds, as they are a dreadful 11-17 SU up home and 9-19 ATS. Nets, who are 16-10 ATS on the road, are clearly the class of the Eastern COmnference and should handle the Hornets here.
BOSTON -4 vs. MILWAUKEE (BEST BET)
Bucks are in a horrible spot tonight, forced to play a huge emotional game last night (losing to Lakers in a late meltdown) and now having to fly to the East Coast for a road game against the rested and confident Celtics. Boston is 16-6 SU as a home favorite and should handle the Bucks in a letdown situation. Key Trend -- Teams coming off a 10+ point loss at home are just 23-34 ATS the next night on the road.
SIDE NOTE: I see there is a dissenting viewpoint on this game, which I have considered. Trouble is -- Milwaukee is not the kind of team that pulls it together on the road versus a good team. If this game were in Milwaukee, I might play the Bucks. But with Boston's top two scorers arguably just as solid as O'Neal and Bryant, the Bucks are not going o be able to defend the basket. Milwaukee shot the ball fairly well last night, and still lost. Also -- are Bucks really that much deeper on the bench than Celtics? No bench is softer than the Lakers, but that wasn't a factor. Should be close for three quarters, then Boston pulls away and covers. Love this line at -4 (can you say "intentional foul" with 10 seconds left -- Celts up by 3?)......wouldn't play it at -6 or higher.
PHILADELPHIA -4 vs. MIAMI
Sixers are 4-0 this season playing back to back home games when they lost their previous game as a home favorite. That tells me Philadelphia takes losses to heart and focuses strongly on the next game. Sixers have dominated this series in recent years, 16-8 ATS versus Miami the last five years. Looking for a big effort tonight from Sixers versus a key East rival.
ATLANTA +1.5 vs. SEATTLE
Hawks have to be pleased coming back home after successful West Coast trip, where they went 3-3 SU (4-2 ATS) and were competitive in most games. That trip included a tough 99-96 loss in Seattle. Hawks are now back home for a three-game homestand and find themselves as a slight underdog to a team playing it's third game on a 5-game road trip. Last two seasons, teams playing the first of a three game homestand are 58-48 ATS. Hawks are playing just as well as Sonics right now and get the edge of playing at home against a Seattle team that could begin to be travel-weary. Teams playing in the second of back-to-back road games are just 53-94 SU this season.
MINNESOTA (pick) vs. LA LAKERS
Tough to go against Lakers here -- who have won four road games in a row. But they go into yet another snake pit tonight, a tough road game versus a very talented Minnesota team that's playing well at the moment. T-Wolves are rested and face a Lakers team that had to sweat out a win in Milwaukee last night (game was tied with 5 minutes remaining). It could be difficult for Lakers to get up emotionally yet again versus one of the top teams in the conference. Home teams off at least a days rest are 124-72 SU this season versus teams playing back-to-back road games. Minnesota is also 7-1 SU this season versus opponents playing 3+ consecutive games on road (meaning they enjoy a strong home court factor). Wolves are also 4-0 this season in rematch games they beat the previous time as a dog. Minnesota won at home against Lakers in previous matchup, 120-102.
DENVER / GOLDEN STATE OVER 195
Neither one of these teams can play a lick of defense. A Western Conference game between two struggling teams tells me this could be a shootout. Last game between these two teams totaled 206 points. Anytime you see a total less than 200 in a Warrior game, it automatically receives consideration -- since Golden State has surrendered 100+ in seven straight games and 20 of its last 25! This game has the additional bonus of being what could be a close contest in the final minute -- which means the intentional fouls come into play and could push the total higher (not usually a factor in either of these teams' games -- since they are blown out so frequently). Nuggets have not been scoring many points recently (which is why this total is lower than normal) -- but do come in with three days rest. Thy have also surrendered 100+ in 3 of their last four games.
Seven plays tonight?..
WASHINGTON +8 vs. PORTLAND
Okay, so Michael Jordan is out with an injury. But this line is insane! Why would the Blazers -- who are just 12-15 SU on the road and 13-14 ATS this season be close to a double-digit favorite in a coast-to-coast road game? Wizards have been in a slump recently (4 straight losses), but were competitive in every game, collapsing late in the 4th quarter each time. At home, I suspect Wizards may pull together with Jordan out of the lineup and should keep this closer than the line indicates. Blazers may also take Wizards lightly with Jordan out (has to be a emotional letdown) and could get caught looking ahead to upcoming back-to-back road games coming up next at Toronto and Milwaukee. Last season, Wizards were a dismal team -- and Blazers were only a -6 point favorite in DC. Washington is clearly a better team this year, which tells me this line at -8 is off by ~4 points.
NEW JERSEY -2 vs. CHARLOTTE
Hornets are 0-9 this season as a home underdog. Hornets are also just 1-10 this season versus the NBA's top teams (top 6 in each conference). The pending move to New Orleans has to be on the Hornets minds, as they are a dreadful 11-17 SU up home and 9-19 ATS. Nets, who are 16-10 ATS on the road, are clearly the class of the Eastern COmnference and should handle the Hornets here.
BOSTON -4 vs. MILWAUKEE (BEST BET)
Bucks are in a horrible spot tonight, forced to play a huge emotional game last night (losing to Lakers in a late meltdown) and now having to fly to the East Coast for a road game against the rested and confident Celtics. Boston is 16-6 SU as a home favorite and should handle the Bucks in a letdown situation. Key Trend -- Teams coming off a 10+ point loss at home are just 23-34 ATS the next night on the road.
SIDE NOTE: I see there is a dissenting viewpoint on this game, which I have considered. Trouble is -- Milwaukee is not the kind of team that pulls it together on the road versus a good team. If this game were in Milwaukee, I might play the Bucks. But with Boston's top two scorers arguably just as solid as O'Neal and Bryant, the Bucks are not going o be able to defend the basket. Milwaukee shot the ball fairly well last night, and still lost. Also -- are Bucks really that much deeper on the bench than Celtics? No bench is softer than the Lakers, but that wasn't a factor. Should be close for three quarters, then Boston pulls away and covers. Love this line at -4 (can you say "intentional foul" with 10 seconds left -- Celts up by 3?)......wouldn't play it at -6 or higher.
PHILADELPHIA -4 vs. MIAMI
Sixers are 4-0 this season playing back to back home games when they lost their previous game as a home favorite. That tells me Philadelphia takes losses to heart and focuses strongly on the next game. Sixers have dominated this series in recent years, 16-8 ATS versus Miami the last five years. Looking for a big effort tonight from Sixers versus a key East rival.
ATLANTA +1.5 vs. SEATTLE
Hawks have to be pleased coming back home after successful West Coast trip, where they went 3-3 SU (4-2 ATS) and were competitive in most games. That trip included a tough 99-96 loss in Seattle. Hawks are now back home for a three-game homestand and find themselves as a slight underdog to a team playing it's third game on a 5-game road trip. Last two seasons, teams playing the first of a three game homestand are 58-48 ATS. Hawks are playing just as well as Sonics right now and get the edge of playing at home against a Seattle team that could begin to be travel-weary. Teams playing in the second of back-to-back road games are just 53-94 SU this season.
MINNESOTA (pick) vs. LA LAKERS
Tough to go against Lakers here -- who have won four road games in a row. But they go into yet another snake pit tonight, a tough road game versus a very talented Minnesota team that's playing well at the moment. T-Wolves are rested and face a Lakers team that had to sweat out a win in Milwaukee last night (game was tied with 5 minutes remaining). It could be difficult for Lakers to get up emotionally yet again versus one of the top teams in the conference. Home teams off at least a days rest are 124-72 SU this season versus teams playing back-to-back road games. Minnesota is also 7-1 SU this season versus opponents playing 3+ consecutive games on road (meaning they enjoy a strong home court factor). Wolves are also 4-0 this season in rematch games they beat the previous time as a dog. Minnesota won at home against Lakers in previous matchup, 120-102.
DENVER / GOLDEN STATE OVER 195
Neither one of these teams can play a lick of defense. A Western Conference game between two struggling teams tells me this could be a shootout. Last game between these two teams totaled 206 points. Anytime you see a total less than 200 in a Warrior game, it automatically receives consideration -- since Golden State has surrendered 100+ in seven straight games and 20 of its last 25! This game has the additional bonus of being what could be a close contest in the final minute -- which means the intentional fouls come into play and could push the total higher (not usually a factor in either of these teams' games -- since they are blown out so frequently). Nuggets have not been scoring many points recently (which is why this total is lower than normal) -- but do come in with three days rest. Thy have also surrendered 100+ in 3 of their last four games.
