Feast on these. Bon Apetit!!!
PHILADELPHIA -9 vs. CLEVELAND
At first glance, the 9 points seems like a gift with the underdog. Cavs are playing better ball at the moment, staying competitive in most of their recent games (5-5 SU last 10 games). Trouble is, Sixers have dominated this series recently, winning 11 straight SU versus Cleveland. Several other trends point to a Sixers win and cover. First, Cavs are playing their 4th game in 5 nights -- they are 0-3 in that role this season. Sixers are 5-0 SU as a favorite when coming off a home loss (most recent game was a heartbreaking loss to Celtics) and 3-0 at home off a loss. Sixers are rested going up against a non-rested team -- leaguewide this trend has gone 271-238 ATS over the past two seasons. Cleveland is just 1-6 SU this season with no rest versus a rested team. Interesting fact: Teams after playing Atlanta are just 13-18 ATS in their next game (the next team is almost always tougher -- so we see a class factor). Iverson scored 28 last game, although he didn't shoot well. I expect him back in the 30s tonight and a double digit win for the Sixers coming off the loss versus a fatigued Cavs team that won yesterday. Sixers 107-92
PORTLAND -5.5 vs. MINNESOTA
T-Wolves are another sucker bet in this spot, even though they have been playing well recently. Wolves looked very sloppy last night (committing a staggering 17 turnovers!). I expect them to slow it down a bit in this game, and play more cautiously (coach had to be chewing their asses out after that debacle versus Sonics). That could translate into a loss of offensive firepower for the high-scoring Wolves. The Rose Garden is a very tough place for opponents to play, especially in back-to-backs -- Blazers are 12-4 ATS at home when rested against a non-rested team. They are also 14-4-1 ATS as a home favorite with a total posted at 190+. Blazers also seek revenge here for earlier loss at Minnesota. Portland is 12-6-2 ATS in rematch where they lost the previous game versus an opponent. This is a very tough spot for Minnesota, after a very physical game in Seattle last night. Portland wins it 102-93.
NEW JERSEY -1 vs. PHOENIX
I'm very reluctant to play the Nets here on the road. They were one of the leagues best road teams, but have not fared nearly as well in that role since the All-Star break and have lost 3 of 4. But here, they get the perfect opponent -- a struggling Suns team coming off a tough game last night in Dallas. Suns played exceptional defense last night, which could be a fatigue spot here against a team that scores points. Phoenix is just 6-17-0 ATS at home the last two seasons after playing their previous game last night on the road. Jason Kidd returns to Phoenix for the first time since the trade -- which should be an additional motivator. Look for New Jersey to be focused here and pick up a road win, and cover the soft number. Nets 94 Suns 87
-- Nolan Dalla
PHILADELPHIA -9 vs. CLEVELAND
At first glance, the 9 points seems like a gift with the underdog. Cavs are playing better ball at the moment, staying competitive in most of their recent games (5-5 SU last 10 games). Trouble is, Sixers have dominated this series recently, winning 11 straight SU versus Cleveland. Several other trends point to a Sixers win and cover. First, Cavs are playing their 4th game in 5 nights -- they are 0-3 in that role this season. Sixers are 5-0 SU as a favorite when coming off a home loss (most recent game was a heartbreaking loss to Celtics) and 3-0 at home off a loss. Sixers are rested going up against a non-rested team -- leaguewide this trend has gone 271-238 ATS over the past two seasons. Cleveland is just 1-6 SU this season with no rest versus a rested team. Interesting fact: Teams after playing Atlanta are just 13-18 ATS in their next game (the next team is almost always tougher -- so we see a class factor). Iverson scored 28 last game, although he didn't shoot well. I expect him back in the 30s tonight and a double digit win for the Sixers coming off the loss versus a fatigued Cavs team that won yesterday. Sixers 107-92
PORTLAND -5.5 vs. MINNESOTA
T-Wolves are another sucker bet in this spot, even though they have been playing well recently. Wolves looked very sloppy last night (committing a staggering 17 turnovers!). I expect them to slow it down a bit in this game, and play more cautiously (coach had to be chewing their asses out after that debacle versus Sonics). That could translate into a loss of offensive firepower for the high-scoring Wolves. The Rose Garden is a very tough place for opponents to play, especially in back-to-backs -- Blazers are 12-4 ATS at home when rested against a non-rested team. They are also 14-4-1 ATS as a home favorite with a total posted at 190+. Blazers also seek revenge here for earlier loss at Minnesota. Portland is 12-6-2 ATS in rematch where they lost the previous game versus an opponent. This is a very tough spot for Minnesota, after a very physical game in Seattle last night. Portland wins it 102-93.
NEW JERSEY -1 vs. PHOENIX
I'm very reluctant to play the Nets here on the road. They were one of the leagues best road teams, but have not fared nearly as well in that role since the All-Star break and have lost 3 of 4. But here, they get the perfect opponent -- a struggling Suns team coming off a tough game last night in Dallas. Suns played exceptional defense last night, which could be a fatigue spot here against a team that scores points. Phoenix is just 6-17-0 ATS at home the last two seasons after playing their previous game last night on the road. Jason Kidd returns to Phoenix for the first time since the trade -- which should be an additional motivator. Look for New Jersey to be focused here and pick up a road win, and cover the soft number. Nets 94 Suns 87
-- Nolan Dalla
