Wednesday Night Rack of Lamb

[Nolan Dalla]

Lamb chops on the grill for dinner tonight, hopefully I'll be eating the main course instead of being served up on a platter.

Bon appetit!

Today is a feast. After being fed cold beans and water by some truly awful performances by starting pitchers (Benes) and relief staffs (Montreal), I'm taking a plunge on a couple of recent trends that appear to have some merit.

First off, I've got four HUGE dogs going tonight. Two of the barkers are playing at home. Wuff! Wuff!

DETROIT +210 vs. NY YANKEES -- 300 to win 630

TAMPA +210 vs. BOSTON -- 300 to win 630

ANAHEIM +170 vs. OAKLAND -- 300 to win 510

COLORADO +185 vs. ARIZONA -- 300 to win 555

Neer mind the pitchers (yes, I've looked -- the numbers are horrifying). I'm going for three appetizers of good old fashioned baseball betting -- 1. fading the public, 2. mean regression (even the Rays and Tigers have to win sometime, right?) and great line value. A 2-2 night means a net win of between $510 and $630. Even a 1-3 night means only a relatively small loss of between $270 to $390. Anything above 1-3 is gravy with the lamb chops.

Now, here's where I'm really ordering more than I can possibly eat in one sitting:

I have noticed a very interesting trend in the last month where you combine fading the public's choice with tracking line moves. Unfortunately, I do not have this down to an exact science yet (if I did -- I'd be eating lobster instead). What I have looked for is fading the popular sides and totals combined with watching how the money moves the actual numbers. Again, I cannot put this into a clear formula, but the general principle is that we are going against what the squares expect, and go for where the smart money is flowing.

The determinants I am using are a couple of consensus pages (not here, but at other sites) where there are a large number of sqaures playing the picking contests. The polyester crowd is always on the Yankees, Mariners and so forth, but they more often than not pick the game wrong (by a small percentage, but it's beyond the break even line). I combined this with watching some line moves during the day, particularly mid to late morning action when the syndicates wake up and start moving the numbers (this also occurs about an hour before game time). What I look for is an OPPOSITE effect. The sqaures are betting one way and the LINE is moving the other. I'm not suggesting this works in every case and I need to do a lot more research, but after data mining a lot of material over the past month -- I believe this is an interesting angle to pursue.

I'm coattailing some major talent here on this board, which has kept me out of Burger King for the season (despite my own $1500 loss on the daily page). I've also pounded a few games for a nice return and have watched the line moves very carefully.

There are many people at this forum who know baseball much better than I do, and I am thankful that they come here to share their knowledge and research. I am posting this here because I hope this might advance some discussion on fading public/line moves -- which I believe will become a MORE POWERFUL trend as the season progresses. I advise others approach this with caution. But I now feel confident enough to go ahead and post some plays based on the reverse effect (public versus line move):

Today is a great day to start, because there are an unusually high number of plays. Also, several pitching staffs have been hammered in the last week, which makes for an unusually high number of OVERS:

CHI / PHILA OVER 8.5 (-120)
240 to win 200

CINCY / PITT OVER 9.5 (-105)
210 to win 200
***seems like a tough total to break or a Reds game, but I'll go witht he line move and against the whole worl;d who seems to like the UNDER

FLA / ATLA UNDER 7.5 (-120)
240 to win 200
***I think 7 is a radar for the sqaure bettor to automatically jump on the OVER. Like bait.

SFO / STL OVER 9 (-105)
210 to win 200
***Cards are scoring runs -- if Giants bats show up, this game should go OVER (the Italian pitcher for the Cards scares me though)

SDI / LAD UNDER 7 (-120)
240 to win 200
***the public loves to bet OVER the 7, but the smart money has pushed the price down

DET / NYY OVER 9.5 (+110)
200 to win 220
***total has moved a half point upward

CHISOX / KC OVER 9.5 (-120)
240 to win 200
***Royals scoring runs

TEX / SEA OVER 9.5 (-120)
240 to win 200
***You would think the public would on the OVER here with the punchbag Rangers, but it isn't so (at least not yet). Mriners might break this total by themselves, after a tougher than usual series against Baltimore.

Bring on dessert!

 

[billiam2005]

Gl on the 4 dogs

 

[tennessee tout]

now were talking

now were talking

Nolan,

I have always enjoyed reading your column and value your opinion. I think today will make a noticeable improvement in your year to date standings/winnings. Having followed your readings for over a year now I've noticed you seem to shine when trying to fade the general betting public. This is my favorite way to play the NFL and I don't see why it wouldn't work in MLB. My only problem is trying to figure out which money is making the line move(suckers or sharpies). If there is a way you can better explain this I would be interested. Also if you were betting a total under would you rather have under 9 1/2 -20 or would you rather have under 9 even money. This scenario comes up quite often if one has more than one place to shop. I usually lay the double juice and take the extra half-run. Just wondering if this is the correct way to bet.

 

[dude]

Nolan

Nolan

Would like to add some #'s to the totals I've been tracking today.

I show the public at 50% on the SD/LA total of 7 with the moneyline staying pretty true.

The most movement I'm seeing is in the SF/StL total. I have the public at 65% on the under. And the total starting to move to 9 Which I think is good for us.

I've also notice alot of movement in the Min/Clev line, now starting to drop to 9, with 57% of the public on the OV. I see you didn't like this game though.

Good Luck,
Dude

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Re: now were talking

Re: now were talking

Nolan,

I have always enjoyed reading your column and value your opinion. I think today will make a noticeable improvement in your year to date standings/winnings.

***Thank you for posting, Tennessee. But today is only one day. I could go 0-13 or 13-0 and it does not prove anything. I picked today because I've noticed this tendency over the past 3-4 weeks and it's been profitable. I decided today is a good day to post this angle because, first I want to get some feedback from people here who are more astute into the nuances of baseball and line movement, and also to foster some discussion on an original idea.

Having followed your readings for over a year now I've noticed you seem to shine when trying to fade the general betting public.

***Yes, you are right. But. it's so hard to pull the trigger on teams like the Rays and the Tigers. If I am calling in a bet, I have trouble saying the words. "Give me $300 in the Dev.......Dev..........Devil.......... (deep breath). Give me $300 on the Dev...Devil R......... GIVE ME $300 ON THE DEVIL RAYS! (whew, there I said it)." Gee, what's that funny smell?

This is my favorite way to play the NFL and I don't see why it wouldn't work in MLB. My only problem is trying to figure out which money is making the line move(suckers or sharpies).

***This is the $64 question. In baseball, I think line tracking is a more reliable form of identifying smart money moves becasue you can see a process over a 24 hour period and note the jolts where the numbers move. Also, since there is a higher percentage of qiseguy action on bases than in the NFL, a strong line move is more apt to mean a significant factor. In the NFl, line moves mean almost nothing to me, since there are so many billions bet on every game. Unless the line ot total jumps of the page (which means a QB injury or weather report, most likley), a line move of a point or so doesn't mean a thing in as far as tracking which way the samrt money is flowing.

If there is a way you can better explain this I would be interested.

***I'll try to do more on this, but I must admit there is a built in learning curve for me also. I'm kinda' "thinking out loud" here if you know what I mean.

Also if you were betting a total under would you rather have under 9 1/2 -20 or would you rather have under 9 even money. This scenario comes up quite often if one has more than one place to shop. I usually lay the double juice and take the extra half-run. Just wondering if this is the correct way to bet.

***There has been some discussion on this topic before, about the value of a half run in baseball. The two factors to look at are:
(1) HOW MUCH VALUE you are gaining/losing by taking the half-run, and (2) Which number the half run moves off of.
What I mean is this -- it is much wiser to pay the extra price and pick up the 10 (or 9 or whatever the solid number is) is you are betting the UNDER because yo gain the protection of the solid number for the PUSH. Say, you take UNDER 10 at -130, it takes 11 runs to lose. But, if you were betting OVER, I would be more inclined to take the price at 9.5 Of course much depends on the price to pick up the half-run, but I expect it averages out to about 30 cents. Another factor is if the solid number is ODD or EVEN. You should be more inclined to pay the price to pick up an ODD number (say 9 runs) than an EVEN number (8 or 10 runs) because of the chance for ties and extra innings. Since a total of 9 means a 4-4 tie has a better than 65 percent chance of being a PUSH, you should try to capture this number. But, with 8, a 4-4 tie means you have already lost the bet, since the game will be played until it's conclusion (unless it's the All-Star game, of course -- sorry couldn't resist). Point is -- ODD numbers are more important to capture in totals.


ND

 

[Spock]

I like the Detroit play a lot.

Good luck ND

Cheers !!!
Spock

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Re: Nolan

Re: Nolan

[
The most movement I'm seeing is in the SF/StL total. I have the public at 65% on the under. And the total starting to move to 9 Which I think is good for us.

I've also notice alot of movement in the Min/Clev line, now starting to drop to 9, with 57% of the public on the OV. I see you didn't like this game though.

Good Luck,
Dude [/B][/QUOTE]

DUDE:

Thanks. We could be looking at different data. Also, I may be interpreting some things differently. Finally, it is possible the lines could reverse and move the other way, or the consensus of public could shift. I probably should have waited to post this, because we get a lot of movement in the last hour. But, I wanted to get this out to get people thinking about the concept. You might be right about some plays not meeting the criteria and others now fitting it. Thanks for posting. -- Nolan

 

[grooven]

:nono: CINCINNATI is 136-90 UNDER (+35.9 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive unders since 1997.
The average score was CINCINNATI 4.5, OPPONENT 4.7
CINCINNATI is 20-7 UNDER (+12.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive games as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 3.7, OPPONENT 4.4
CINCINNATI is 30-14 UNDER (+14.9 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive games as favorite over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 4.3, OPPONENT 4.6
CINCINNATI is 11-2 UNDER (+9.0 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
The average score was CINCINNATI 3.1, OPPONENT 3.6
CINCINNATI is 36-16 UNDER (+18.9 Units) after a game as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 4.3, OPPONENT 4.4
CINCINNATI is 44-24 UNDER (+18.3 Units) in road games after a game as favorite over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 4.5, OPPONENT 4.5
CINCINNATI is 17-7 UNDER (+9.1 Units) in road games after allowing 1 run or less over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 4.1, OPPONENT 3.6
CINCINNATI is 13-4 UNDER (+8.6 Units) in road games after batting .290 or better over a 20 game span over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 5.1, OPPONENT 4.6
CINCINNATI is 70-39 UNDER (+26.3 Units) in road games after having won 3 of their last 4 games since 1997.
The average score was CINCINNATI 4.5, OPPONENT 4.4
CINCINNATI is 36-19 UNDER (+15.8 Units) as a road favorite of -110 or higher over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 4.5, OPPONENT 4.1
CINCINNATI is 17-7 UNDER (+9.6 Units) as a road favorite of -125 or more over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 4.0, OPPONENT 3.9
CINCINNATI is 158-108 UNDER (+37.8 Units) in road games in night games since 1997.
The average score was CINCINNATI 4.5, OPPONENT 4.3
CINCINNATI is 5-1 UNDER (+4.0 Units) off 3 straight wins vs. division rivals this season.
The average score was CINCINNATI 2.3, OPPONENT 3.5
CINCINNATI is 26-12 UNDER (+12.6 Units) in road games vs. left-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 4.3, OPPONENT 3.8
CINCINNATI is 18-5 UNDER (+12.3 Units) with a well rested bullpen - threw 3 innings or less over last 2 games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was CINCINNATI 3.4, OPPONENT 4.3
PITTSBURGH is 25-8 UNDER (+16.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive games as a road underdog this season.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 4.1, OPPONENT 3.1
PITTSBURGH is 37-17 UNDER (+18.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive games as an underdog this season.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.9, OPPONENT 3.8
PITTSBURGH is 27-9 UNDER (+16.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive road games this season.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 4.1, OPPONENT 3.5
PITTSBURGH is 19-4 UNDER (+14.8 Units) after 2 straight games where they committed no errors this season.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.7, OPPONENT 3.7
PITTSBURGH is 19-6 UNDER (+12.2 Units) after 3 or more consecutive games as a road underdog this season.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 4.1, OPPONENT 3.0
PITTSBURGH is 30-15 UNDER (+13.4 Units) after 3 or more consecutive games as an underdog this season.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.9, OPPONENT 3.7
PITTSBURGH is 21-8 UNDER (+11.8 Units) after 3 or more consecutive road games this season.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 4.2, OPPONENT 3.5
PITTSBURGH is 16-5 UNDER (+10.4 Units) after 4 or more consecutive road games this season.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 4.3, OPPONENT 3.4
PITTSBURGH is 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) in home games after 5 or more consecutive road games this season.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 4.0, OPPONENT 1.5
PITTSBURGH is 30-12 UNDER (+16.5 Units) after a game as a road underdog this season.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 4.1, OPPONENT 3.5
PITTSBURGH is 45-22 UNDER (+20.7 Units) after a game as an underdog this season.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.8, OPPONENT 3.9
PITTSBURGH is 22-6 UNDER (+15.3 Units) after one or more consecutive overs this season.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.4, OPPONENT 3.7
PITTSBURGH is 13-3 UNDER (+9.7 Units) at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.1, OPPONENT 3.8
PITTSBURGH is 59-30 UNDER (+25.9 Units) in all games this season.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.7, OPPONENT 4.2
PITTSBURGH is 57-29 UNDER (+25.1 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.7, OPPONENT 4.2
PITTSBURGH is 41-19 UNDER (+20.0 Units) in night games this season.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.5, OPPONENT 4.2
PITTSBURGH is 5-1 UNDER (+3.8 Units) in home games off an upset win vs. a division rival as an underdog of +130 or higher this season.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 2.5, OPPONENT 3.0
PITTSBURGH is 10-3 UNDER (+6.8 Units) when playing on Wednesday this season.
The average score was PITTSBURGH 3.3, OPPONENT 4.3
ANDERSON is 5-1 UNDER (+4.0 Units) after a game where he did not walk a batter over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
The average score was ANDERSON 2.2, OPPONENT 4.0
ANDERSON is 6-0 UNDER (+6.0 Units) at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season. (Team's Record)
The average score was ANDERSON 2.7, OPPONENT 4.0

 

[detox]

***Yes, you are right. But. it's so hard to pull the trigger on teams like the Rays and the Tigers. If I am calling in a bet, I have trouble saying the words. "Give me $300 in the Dev.......Dev..........Devil.......... (deep breath). Give me $300 on the Dev...Devil R......... GIVE ME $300 ON THE DEVIL RAYS! (whew, there I said it)." Gee, what's that funny smell


Nolan one simple rule I like to follow is don`t ask a bad team to win for you.

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Okay, Grooven....so you like the UNDER in the Cincy game. But, by God's sake man -- what PROOF do you have????? !!!

Crack open the box of rotten tomatoes. Time for salad.

ND


Detrox: Quick question -- What kind og price would the Rays have to get to make you bet ON THEM in tonight's game? Just a theorhetical question. As they say, every man has his price.

 

[Nolan Dalla]

CORRECTION: I knew something looked funny about that 9.5 on the Cincy game. It was a typo -- the correct total is a flat 9. I just bet it at Millenium and got 9 (-105).

Here's a consensus line tracking service that shows the total on this game is 9, not 9.5 My mistake.

Note the shift from 8.5 to 9.0 -- but never so high as 9.5

MLB Jul 17 07:08 pm

Update Time CINCINNATI @ PITTSBURGH

Wed Jul 17 05:10 pm PK -125 PK +115 9.0 -115u
Wed Jul 17 05:00 pm PK -125 PK +115 9.0 -115u
Wed Jul 17 04:50 pm PK -125 PK +115 9.0 -115u
Wed Jul 17 04:40 pm PK -125 PK +115 9.0 -115u
Wed Jul 17 04:30 pm PK -125 PK +115 9.0 -115u
Wed Jul 17 04:20 pm PK -125 PK +115 9.0 -115u
Wed Jul 17 04:10 pm PK -125 PK +115 9.0 -115u
Wed Jul 17 04:00 pm PK -125 PK +115 9.0 -115u
Wed Jul 17 03:50 pm PK -125 PK +115 9.0 -115u
Wed Jul 17 03:40 pm PK -125 PK +115 9.0 -115u
Wed Jul 17 03:30 pm PK -125 PK +115 9.0 -115u
Wed Jul 17 03:20 pm PK -125 PK +115 9.0 -115u
Wed Jul 17 03:10 pm PK -125 PK +115 9.0 -115u
Wed Jul 17 03:00 pm PK -125 PK +115 9.0 -115u
Wed Jul 17 02:50 pm PK -125 PK +115 9.0 -115u
Wed Jul 17 02:40 pm PK -125 PK +115 9.0 -115u
Wed Jul 17 02:30 pm PK -125 PK +115 9.0 -115u
Wed Jul 17 02:20 pm PK -125 PK +115 9.0 -115u
Wed Jul 17 02:10 pm PK -125 PK +115 9.0 -115u
Wed Jul 17 02:00 pm PK -125 PK +115 9.0 -115u
Wed Jul 17 01:50 pm PK -125 PK +115 9.0 -115u
Wed Jul 17 01:40 pm PK -125 PK +115 9.0 -115u
Wed Jul 17 01:30 pm PK -125 PK +115 9.0 -115u
Wed Jul 17 01:20 pm PK -125 PK +115 9.0 -115u
Wed Jul 17 01:10 pm PK -125 PK +115 9.0 -115u
Wed Jul 17 01:00 pm PK -125 PK +115 9.0 -115u
Wed Jul 17 12:50 pm PK -125 PK +115 9.0 -115u
Wed Jul 17 12:40 pm PK -125 PK +115 9.0 -115u
Wed Jul 17 12:30 pm PK -125 PK +115 9.0 -115u
Wed Jul 17 12:20 pm PK -125 PK +115 9.0 -115u
Wed Jul 17 12:10 pm PK -125 PK +115 9.0 -115u
Wed Jul 17 12:00 pm PK -125 PK +115 9.0 -115u
Wed Jul 17 11:50 am PK -125 PK +115 9.0 -115u
Wed Jul 17 11:40 am PK -125 PK +115 9.0 -115u
Wed Jul 17 11:30 am PK -125 PK +115 9.0 -115u
Wed Jul 17 11:20 am PK -125 PK +115 9.0 -115u
Wed Jul 17 11:10 am PK -125 PK +115 9.0 -125u
Wed Jul 17 11:00 am PK -125 PK +115 9.0 -125u
Wed Jul 17 10:50 am PK -125 PK +115 9.0 -125u
Wed Jul 17 10:40 am PK -125 PK +115 9.0 -125u
Wed Jul 17 10:30 am PK -125 PK +115 9.0 -125u
Wed Jul 17 10:20 am PK -125 PK +115 9.0 -125u
Wed Jul 17 10:10 am PK -125 PK +115 9.0 -125u
Wed Jul 17 10:00 am PK -125 PK +115 9.0 -125u
Tue Jul 16 10:50 pm PK -125 PK +115 8.5 -120o
Tue Jul 16 10:40 pm PK -125 PK +115 8.5 -120o
Tue Jul 16 10:30 pm PK -125 PK +115 8.5 -120o
Tue Jul 16 10:20 pm PK -125 PK +115 8.5 -120o
Tue Jul 16 10:10 pm PK -125 PK +115 8.5 -120o
Tue Jul 16 10:00 pm PK -125 PK +115 8.5 -120o
Tue Jul 16 09:50 pm PK -125 PK +115 8.5 -120o
Tue Jul 16 09:40 pm PK -125 PK +115 8.5 -120o
Tue Jul 16 09:30 pm PK -125 PK +115 8.5 -120o
Tue Jul 16 09:20 pm PK -125 PK +115 8.5 -120o
Tue Jul 16 09:10 pm PK -125 PK +115 8.5 -120o
Tue Jul 16 09:00 pm PK -125 PK +115 8.5 -120o
Tue Jul 16 08:50 pm PK -125 PK +115 8.5 -120o
Tue Jul 16 08:40 pm PK -125 PK +115 8.5 -120o

 

[detox]

Nolan fair question it goes back to handicapping obviously you want to bet on a team that is going out thier trying to play a solid game not just phoning it in. Just look at the Rays game last night they lost by a run. I will be sweating laying a big price if I was to take the Fav like you did last night. Do you want to be on the other side hoping the Rays score 2 runs to give you a win? I say at least 3-1 for my money.


On a side note I miss playing poker with you down AC

 

[beachbum]

going over in pirates game

going over in pirates game

everything points to under in this game so y is the total 9

 

[TJBELL]

GOOD LUCK TONIGHT NOLAN!!!!!!!!! ROOTIN FOR YA ON ALL4!!!!!