Wednesday Plays

[Spock]

Yesterday was decent day :

Todays plays :

1. Golden State / Philadelphia

Golden State got totally outshot by NJ whose jumpers kept on falling. One thing I have noticed about this GS team is they are a good bet for the second half if they are losing in the first half. They have been consistently making a comeback after the break.
I know they played hard yesterday but it was an early game which gives the players more time to rest. Also not a lot of distance to travel to Philly.

One big advantage I see here for GS is in the rebounding section. Mutombo is a great rebounder but he cannot play a whole lot of minutes. Even if he plays his effectiveness decreases. GS is the best rebounding team in the league if my numbers are correct. Derrick Coleman has been suspended for one game for the altercation with Reggie Miller and that leaves a big void.
If my thinking is correct GS will have a huge edge in the offensive rebounding and this can translate into easy putbacks and easy points. Also other key players including Derrick and Aaron McKEY are not playing. Raja Bell is also doubtful .. Speedy Claxton is there but if Iverson is injured and cannot play big minutes this may become an issue. Sixers are a beat up bunch and if not many players are there on the bench the minutes can become an issue. Look for GS in the second half ..

GS has been playing good as of late and even though its road record is not good I see not much offence for the Sixers other than Iverson. If Jamison gets going it can spell trouble for the Sixers. I think GS should be able to cover the spread.
GS has a big edge in 3 point shooting also. No real 3 point shooters for Philly right now. Iverson sometimes but not consistently this season. Eric Snow still not shooting well.

GS has covered the spread the last 2 matches with Philly. Last 5 GS has covered 3 times.

Golden State +10.5 I think is a good bet. Also looking to put a little bit on the moneyline. I think GS can outscore the Sixers today.

Cheers !!!
Spock

# I think Nick Douglas just has posted moneyline plays on two of my plays also .. reinforces the thought .. no one better than Nick for ML plays ..

Will be back with more ..
Good luck 2 all

 

[Spock]

2. Miami / LA Clippers.

Clippers played a horrible game with Portland and brought out the rug under my feet with my Over Play.
Have been looking real hard at this game and I cannot see Miami with more than 3 points advantage.

LA Clippers had a horrible showdown with Portland in which they lost by 1 point. I would say that when a young team like the Clippers lose by 1 point they wanna come out strong in the next match and play hard. I see Clippers with an advantage in the fast breaks and think that they can dictate a faster swing to the game than Miami may want.

Miami won against Chicago the last game but no importance given to that game. Chicago was playing with 8 players and two of their best players were not played for fear that they may get injured before the trade. (Must be nice to sit on ur ass when u r healthy and earn the big bux) . .. Other than Eddie Jones dont see a big offence from Miami. I think the Clippers match up well in defending the boards and even on the offensive glass. Brand may b a big factor in this game.

Clippers would be looking to rebound back.Look for Brand to have a better shooting night. Miles is doubtful but the slack should be picked up by Richardson.

Even though Clippers have lost 3 of last 4 I think they should be able to cover the spread in this game.

Cheers !!!
Spock

# Lean for the total is over 181
# Lean for the Sixers game is Under 181

 

[Biggy]

Good luck tonight Spock, I got Heat game over 180 and Clippers plus 7 against my Home team both for Biggys so far...

 

[Spock]

3. Detroit / Wizards

Like Detroit @ -7.5 and Under 181

Only game that Jordan did not play in this season the Wizards lost to the Spurs. Jordan accounts for 23-25 points a night and assists also. But more than that it is the on court leadership that I am taking into factor here.

The next leading scorer for Wizards is Hamilton. He is good but I just dont see him having same leadership effect as Jordan on court. Washington are 12-13 on the road and Detroit are 17-8 at home.

Clifford Robinson has been suspended one game and he accounts for around 14.5 points a game. Am looking for Stackhouse to put in huge numbers today. Main thorn Jordan is out of line up. Second : Nothing better than defeat Jordan's team and I am sure he remember the snuf for All Star game. Williamson should have a good night also. Also think that Ben Wallace will be a monster on the offensive glass and have some easy putbacks.

Also like the Under 181. Just cannot understand where these points will come from. Vegas inflating the line. Wonder why.
Jordan + Robinson account for around 38-39 points combined. Not huge on defence but offensively someone has to deliever.

I think Ez has a great writeup about the total's scenario.

Also like Dragon's call for the Sixers game of Under 97. Cannot see both teams scoring more than 88 points or so in the first half.

Cheers !!!
Spock ..

Biggy good luck on both plays. I am not sure if I will be there for the half time plays but Detroit in second half (Dragon likes this play and GS in second half are in my mind of course depending on score and how they are playing ) ,.. gotta take the girl out today ..


# Leaning towards over for Portland game but gotta do more work. Also Charolette @ -2 looks like a good play but unfortunately could not do any work on them.

 

[Dragon]

Good luck tonight Spock

Good luck tonight Spock

See you at the half...

 

[eztds]

Spock.......

Spock.......

I haven't bailed on the under Wiz/Det yet.

However, the line movement is a concern to me.

Still think'n. ez

 

[Dragon]

ez

ez

I know line movement can be a concern at times, but if you feel that the under is the best play for you, don't change it. There have been times that I've had a strong feeling about a play and changed my mind because of some feedback. I ended up switching up and losing. I'm sure I don't have to share these stories with you because we all have them. About line movement...yesterday I scoped out the Kings under 207 in the morning...loved it and thought it was a gift being that high. Well, I'm at work...doing some more research and about an hour later I go to my book and get ready to make a play. It's up to 208. I'm thinking...no biggie. About 2 hours later I log back in and see the line up to 210.5. Scary, but I didn't let the line movement change my mind. I ended up playing the under again. The under was never in doubt. Drawn out post, but just saying that sometimes the 1st instinct is the best one. Don't talk yourself out of the play if you feel it's the best one. Good luck guys!

 

[eztds]

Thanks for the thoughts Dragon..........

Thanks for the thoughts Dragon..........

probably will let it ride. ez

 

[Spock]

What can I say :

Poor money management was making my day miserable.
Lesson to be learnt. One of my good friends Dragon has offered his advice and I decided to follow it. Stick to a strict unit system.
Today in the first half of plays I did just that. Then in god know what kind of rush I bet more on Houston second half. Houston has come back a lot of times in games in which they were down by a lot .. But as Dragon said that he broke the Cardinal rule :
Never play in a bucks game . Period .. goons are 2 unpredictable .. come out and shoot the lights out or cannot score 12 points in a quarter ..

Miami similar goons .. 11 points in one quarter of first half .. 9 points in last quarter .. god ... clippers 12 points in second quarter ..

My initial plays where I had done my homework was mixed :

I had seriously thought GS would win against Philly and even though I had thought that the cover against spread was easy I played small amount as decided before.

Won this .

Won the Clippers bet ..

Lost the Detroit play by 0.5 points ..

Really thought the under in the Washington game was a good play .. did not reckon on the 20 or so offensive rebounds that Washington got and the sharp 3 point shooting. Add to that 5 points scored by Stackhouse in the whole game and I was wrong.

Had to bet on the Utah over for second half and thought that was a goner also .. not sure what they did but that was like a Dallas game in the last 3 mins .. and recovered my money ..almost ..

Biggy : Glad u hit one of the plays on the Clippers .. Bunch of thugs .. am leaning towards the under on the Heat now .. those days of Over for them are over for the last few games. Clippers offensive machine also wearin down looks like though to be honese they were missing some players due to injury.

I will be updating the no good teams .. my idea and i have not contributed but will post a message there for sure ..

Congratz to all the winners .. and Nick .. great call again

Ez Dragon .. buds .. hope u guys also ended in +ve or evened out .. Anders hang in there man ..

Spock over and out ..

# Ice Hockey : GO CANADA GO .. Canada leading Finns .. 2-1