Wednesday September 12th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Wednesday September 12th 2007

yesterday: 9-11 -8.45
September: 83-80 +5.2
ml 34-28 +3.57
rl 1-4 -7.67
totals 32-17 +9.56
parlays & IFs 16-31 -0.26
system picks 0-2 yesterday; 18-19 in September (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 2-3 yesterday; 26-13 in September (666%)

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

Pitt 53% (-128)-4
Fla 57 (-131)even
Phil 68 (-169)+5
atl 58 (-103)+7
Cin 66 (-140)+7
cubs 58 (-127)+2
Lad 65 (Billingsley-Germano)
ariz 65 (-149)+5 RL 50 (+110)+2
clev 54 (-118)-1
Kc 59 (-108)+7
laa 63 (-159)+1
Bost 57 (-201)-10 tb 43 (+185)+7
Det 69 (-218)even RL 55 (-111)+2
Tor 54 (-102)+3
oak 56 (-117)+2

system totals

mil@Pitt ov8.5 69% (-106)+17 --T.Welke is an under ump; kills this one
atl@Mets un8.5 67 (-125)+11 --ump Froemming is even
ariz@Sf un8 71 (-125)+15 --ump Meriwether is even
tb@Bost ov10.5 76 (+100)+26 --Gibson is a good OVER-ump
tex@Det un9.5 67 (-125)+1 --Miller is a decent UNDER-ump


Missed my big total (by 1 lousy run) AND, worse than that, missed my 2 big sides. Really thought that the M's would feast, again, on Braden but they look like a good team to fade the rest of the way. Jays, like I keep saying, the same. I've been wondering if the Cards, too, should fall into that category. Mets game was just a shit start from Orlando so not much I can do about that. Losers happen so time to move on...

I'll play the Phillies and the Reds when they open them?one or both of those might be a system pick. Thinking about K.C., too?I think that might salvage a game in that series (#2). D'Backs are barely a system pick and I think I'll want a piece of that likely candidate for a W. D'Rays also worth a shot at current lines. I need the Mets on a series play but the Braves look to have some value Wednesday, too, but I don't know if I want to bet against myself if yaknowhatimean.

System totals should have gone 4-2 instead of 2-3-1 yesterday?another run in each of Houston and Philly (Phillies score 2 dang runs?!...in 27 outs?) would have done it. I'll probably try some of the 4 that survived umpire-kills. Will look at team totals also; not much appealing on first look so I'll keep looking. Won't look too long; today looks like a day to stay light, both because of the poor options and because of getting shelled Tuesday. I said light I didn't say invisible...I'm sure there'll be something.

Will post plays. For rebound?prays.
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

some possible team totals
(w/relative system numbers; + for overs, etc.)

Mets un4 -105 (-11)Mets hitting .272 last 10 vs R; Mets 7-day OPS at .791, which is going down from it's higher near .900 over the past week...playing at Shea will do that; moneyline looks better
--have Atl at -2

Giants un3.5 -115 (-16)Giants last 10 hitting only .220 vs R; Giants 7-day OPS at .765, which is good for them (season vs R near .720); ump Meriwether, even or a slight-over-lean if anything, has done 2 Webb games: 1 at Coors, this season, where Rockies won 5-3, and one in 2005 where Webb lost 4-1 to the Mets and Glavine; Chuck's past 3, and 4 of the past 5, have played under the total; Webb had been shaky for a few starts (see the 5.89 era over past 3 starts) but bounced back with a strong effort vs the (once-)surging Cards, beating young stud Wainwright 4-2; Webb beat the Giants 1-0 (v.Morris) in their only '07 encounter; this is affordable, right now, so I think I want a piece--G-men got squat off of weak righty Edgar so let's seem them try to light things up today; will try the game total, too
--have ariz at -2; some struggles hitting lefties (OPS near .700) but they are 12-7 on the road to lefties

twins un4.5 -130 (-7)Twins hitting .280 last 10 vs R; Twins 7-day OPS .744; Twins scored 4 then 6 so far in this series--likely their toughest test of the series today; moneyline looks better as Silva can be hit
--have Royals at -2
--system call is 52% over the 8.5 (kind of a low total for Kauffman, but not a low total for the teams, presently, though Royals hitting a decent .270 last 10 vs R with a 7-day OPS of .689...jeez...that's dropped...was at .845 for them a couple days ago
STILL think that the Royals can take this one.

angels ov5.5 +100 (+8)Angels hitting .310 last 10 vs R, 7-day OPS was only .691 (dropped some with Vladdy out); Cabrera 3-game era of 5.17 is close to his 5.11 season avg; Orioles pen, by my ratings, is the worst in baseball; this one looks affordable, too; Angels runline comparable, but Kellvim has been shelled twice by the O's already this season
--have O's at -4; Kelvim is still Kelvim; O's .266 last 10 vs R at 7-day at .755

d'rays ov4.5 -120 (+10)D'Rays hitting .333 last 10 vs L and have hit L better than R all season; 'Rays 7-day OPS of .794 might not include Tueday's outburst; lost to Lest in 12-6 game, a 2-1 game and an 8-6 game so far in '07; I think that the 'Rays can topple this figure
Bosox ov6 +100 (+12)Bosox .301 last 10 vs R, 7-day OPS was .724, also probably not including Tuesday's outburst; beat Jackson 7-5 and later lost 2-1 to him; if Sox score 7 then the game total should go over so I dunno about tackling this 6

rangers un4 -150 (-9)Rangers hitting .310 last 10 vs R, 7-day OPS was 1.007!; Verlander has been sharp, lately, but maybe this is pushing it the way the Rangers have been hitting...especially considering the price tag
--have Tigers at +5; Tigers .311 last 10 vs R with a 7-day of .829
--system call is on the under but I dunno
tread this game lightly

Jays ov5 -130 (+7)Jays hitting .266 last 10 vs R, 7-day OPS was .664; Mussina has been garbage, even in his recent relief work, but Jays are a team I take it easy on the rest of the way--they still can't hit righties and expecting a 6, here, for the price, seems like foolishness
--have yanks at +2; McGowan is 2-0 with a 2.45 era vs the Yanks in two '07 encounters, so my guess is that the Yankees will get to the bullpen to win it 6-4 in 10


That's the lot of them
That Indians over5 at +110 is another thought, though the team total number is -1 as they're not the best on the road to righties; Vazquez can be decent but he's been mediocre for about his past 6 starts. Might take a gamble there. 6 Indians runs should mean victory, though Westbrook hasn't had a good time facing the Pale Hose this season.

Might have a look at Thursday, and think some about the NCAA and (more) about the NFL. This board is one best to be taken lightly.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

New car, caviar, four-star daydream...think I'll buy me a football team.

New car, caviar, four-star daydream...think I'll buy me a football team.

PLAYS

system picks

diamondbacks -149 4.47/3

other picks

indians -118 1/0.85
Royals -108 1.08/1
devil rays +185 0.6/1.11
Tigers -1.5 -111 1.66/1.5
a's -117 1.17/1

totals

Giants under3.5 -115 0.8/0.7
indians over5 +110 0.5/0.55
tb@Bost ov10.5 +100 2/2

2-teamer
--angels ml
--Tigers ml
+125
0.8/1

11-team IF bet
1.atl-Mets un8.5 0.75/0.6
2.diamondbacks -1.5 0.5/0.53
3.indians -1.5 0.5/0.57
4.Royals 0.55/0.5
5.brewers 0.7/0.8
6.Tigers -1.5 0.9/0.75
7.a's 1.2/1
8.angels -1.5 0.82/0.75
9.Blue Jays 1.1/1
10.devil rays 1/1.75
11.Dodgers 1.05/0.75
0.75 to win max.9.1

7-team IF bet
1.ariz-Sf un8 0.75/0.6
2.Tigers -1.5 0.6/0.5
3.tb-Bost ov10.5 0.52/0.5
4.a's 0.6/0.5
5.indians 1/0.8
6.Royals 0.88/0.8
7.Dodgers 1.4/1
0.75 to win max.4.7

9-team IF bet
1.tex-Det un9.5 0.75/0.6
2.Royals 0.55/0.5
3.a's 0.6/0.5
4.diamondbacks -1.5 0.6/0.63
5.indians 1/0.8
6.devil rays over4.5 0.9/0.75
7.atl-Mets un8.5 0.75/0.6
8.angels -1.5 1.1/1
9.Blue Jays 1.1/1
0.75 to win max.6.38


That will keep me busy enough on Wednesday. Give me the D'Backs W and that Fenway game over and I figure I'll turn out just fine. Time to look deeper into the NCAA and NFL.

Quick (as if) word on Thursday, first. Cards-Reds game is up for grabs with Wainwright facing Harang. At a 9.5 that will be a system under. I'd try the Rockies (Francis-Durbin) if the line is -125 or better. System over at 9.5 for that one. Trachsel-Williams matchup I've got stuck at 50% so I'll likely give a 51 to whichever team wins today; I could use the Cubs taking the next 2 for a series play. Padres will get a small nod over the Dodgers (Maddux-Billingsley), but I'll be more inclined to try the under; will be a system total even at a 7?should be 7.5 but I'd jump all over an 8 if it happens. Lackey over Leicester, for sure, and a system pick at up to -163 or so, but it might be more judging by today's scary number. Small nod to Ian Kennedy over A.J. Burnett but what I really want to see for that game is at least a 9 for the total; Burnett has been phenomenal since coming off of the DL and threw a beauty vs the Yanks in their only '07 encounter; add in the fact that the Jays can't hit righties this season, own a 7-day OPS of .651, and have never faced the kid before and I think we should be looking at a fairly low scoring affair. I should take a boo at Thursday's likely umps as there are several totals that will interest me. Back to the games?Rangers will get the call with either Millwood (preferably) or Gabbard throwing as A's Gaudin has kinda tanked and the Rangers just pummelled him bad in his last start; going to see a reasonable line for this one so I'm likely a Rangers backer for Thursday; Rangers should be a system pick, if Millwood, in the -115 range. Last game is going to have a good line for me as well?I'm liking the Devil Rays to take the opener with the M's as I think it has become fade time as far as the M's are concerned while the young D'Rays team seems to have a little more gumption right now; Weaver hasn't faced faced the D'Rays in '07 but is, career, 4-8 with an era of 5.00 vs them, not to mention the fact that he totally sucks currently; Hammel was total crap two weeks ago but is earning a spot in next year's rotation by, first, shutting down the Yankees at Yankee Stadium, and then turning away the Blue Jays at the last crucial point in their season after they had snuck to within 5.5 of the wild card; line will totally favour the M's?the higher the better, for me, as I'll try the Devil Rays; this one could be a system pick in the +135 range. That last one will be a system over at a 9.

For Wednesday I might add the Phillies and/or the Reds. Hope to see lines soon.

Need a nice turnaround. Any kinda turnaround.
See you when it happens.
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I'm in the high fidelity first-class travelling set and I think I need a Lear jet.

I'm in the high fidelity first-class travelling set and I think I need a Lear jet.

added:

Phillies -169 1.69/1
Reds -140 2.8/2
Cubs -127 1.27/1
indians -120 1/0.83


Would have liked to seen the Reds get a crack at Maroth, today, but I think that Reyes is a decent substitute; Reds better vs R anyway; Arroyo tough luck vs Cards this year but has been pretty good lately. Phillies in a bit of a mismatch, there, as long as the crappy Phillies pen?a bullpen that will keep them from the playoffs?doesn't fork things up. Cubs worth a shot as Albers kinda blows and Hill has his moments; total mismatch at the plate insists I try that one. Pumpin' ump the jam on my Indians play as, on further conisderation, my 54% call on them seems a touch low; I only gave a small edge to the Indians pitching but Wesbrook has been much better than Vazquez lately PLUS the Indians have a much better bullpen, and the bats I called close to even as the Indians aren't the best on the road to R while to Chisox had respectable 7-day and 10-day numbers when I 'capped the game, which was a few days ago?Chisox offensive numbers have become offensive once again. For the other early games I'm hoping for a Brewers win to snag a series play, I could care less what happens in Florida, and I've got a piece of the Royals?certainly enough to keep me satisfied as backing the Royals will rarely be anyone's secret to success.

Sleep may not be in the cards for me.
Maybe take a boo at Friday's games.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

heads up for Thursday...

I'm totally excited about getting a 10 at the Rogers Centre. ump Jeff Nelson will help, if anything, and Burnett looks superb. Jaysticks good candidate to give Kennedy another solid effort.

Also got a system under at Dodgerland. Maddux and Billingsley both have good numbers vs opponent and neither offense is excelling right now (despite the Pads 9 Tuesday...let's see them get that off of Lowe tonight )(might...they've hit him well this year)(...might get it if it's Stults last second). ump Hernandez is even. Will like it better without another 9-5 score tonight (I think that's what is was).

Sides don't look as promising. Looking at:
rockies -114
padres +111
angels runline if it comes down to -115 or less
devil rays +126...kinda want it see go a little higher
rangers -104 Hoppy


I'll have the numbers up once there a little more solidified.
Gives a heads up to anyone who might care what I think about tomorrow.

Let's Go Tribe!!!

:00hour :00hour :00hour

:weed:
:SIB

 

[mainlander]

Thanks for all the great info/thoughts/picks.
You know what I mean!

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

thanks for the kind words, mainlander

I've just changed the Dodgers number to a Billingsley game; Lad look real good in this matchup as Billingsley, like other former 1st-rounder Wainwright, is having a breakthrough season. He'll be working on 4 days rest and has stymied the Padres on more than one occassion. Germano is 0-3 with a 7.16 era vs the Dodgers in his career, including 0-2, 4.26 in two '07 games, the worst of which was at Dodger Stadium. I think I might add it to my plays. Gives me a pretty busy evening. 1-2, down 1.5 units so far as the Indians got plenty of baserunners, early, but didn't cash 'em, and then Westbrook had 1 stinker inning. Knew I shouldn't have added to that play. At least the Royals won.

Need the D'Backs most.
Need lots...I've got lots.

GL

:weed:
:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

adding:

Dodgers -145 2.9/2


Looks to be a fair price for this matchup.
Dodgers should be desperate to take this one.
I don't know who they'll be starting tomorrow, against Maddux.
If anybody knows then drop me a word.
Maybe a new line will open. Would make it easy.

Yanks-Jays game under, tomorrow, looks best to me for Thursday. WAS trying the Dodger game under but it looks like that will be push-city (was Maddux-Billingsley). Also trying the Rangers. Other pending but I'm getting busy with the NCAA and NFL so I'm getting kinda picky (for me) on my plays. Will likely try the Devil Rays but I'll like it better if the line goes up, the D'Rays can produce some tonight (hopefully helping my over), and the M's drop another to the A's, this time in one that they SHOULD actually lose (still pissed about that Braden result), to Dan Haren.

I've done Friday. I'll have my biggest mismatch of the year if the Reds dare give Dumatrait another start. This would be at Miller Park against Sheets. Dumatrait is a first-rounder that is failing miserably--worse even than John Danks; my current rating for him is well below even fade material range. Brewers just saw him in his last and couldn't get an out as he surrendured 4 earned runs including trying an MLB record by allowing the first 3 batters to homer. If it's Shearn starting I won't like it, at all, as the Brewers are a play against lefties and hopefully face the shit one for that contest, plus Sheets wasn't too hot in his last, facing the Reds; I figure that he can learn better from his mistakes than toolbox Phil can. Brewers would be a system pick whatever the line, if Sheets-Dumatrait, and the runline and Brewers team total over would look smashing (have Brewers +30 for that one...I can't recall either a plus OR a minus 30 yet on the season.
Anxious to see some numbers for that one.
Jays will have a high call, too, as they'll have a rare chance to pick up a late-season victory facing a pathetic Orioles team at the Rogers Centre and facing a mediocre lefty to boot (Jays 16-4 at home to lefties (.800). Litsch is nothing special, in my opinion, but had a 1.84 era for his two '07 encounters with the O's, so I guess he doesn't find them too tough.
Might get a decent line for that one if the Jays drop their next two to the Yankees, which is quite possible.

Enough said.

GL

:weed:
:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

unfreaking real

D'Rays score 4 in the top of the 1st

almost inconceivable that I could end up missing BOTH the game total over AND the devil rays moneyline

looking alright otherwise

got all 3 late ones so I need I nice finish

2 out of 3 ain't looking bad but I don't know what to expect from this putrid Dodgers offense

see you with tomorrow's within a beer and a half