Wednesday to Saturday

[lostinamerica]

NCAA YTD: 15-12 (+4.82*)

Marshall(-7)(-108) over Miami-Ohio (1.50*)
-MJ member buddy wrote: "Given the revenge factor, Marshall's defense and Miami's previous performances, I think Miami is in for a long night . . .MARSHALL in a rout . . .jmo." I'll note further that (1) Marshall has turned around last year's -15 TO ratio to +5 this year against formidable opposition, while amends appear in the works for the debacle by the Herd OL in the home opener; (2) an obviously disciplined Marshall squad has had two weeks to stew on that O-fer record of theirs; and (3) in a conference dominated by elite teams at home, the aspirations of the prime time host are fueled by a long off season of disappointment, while the despised visitor is showing the vulnerability that typically follows a fairy tale season. I'm with buddy when it comes to making plays for 60 minutes in this one.

- Bitter Rivals:
http://www.herald-dispatch.com/2004/September/26/MUspot.htm

- 1000th Game:
http://www.herdzone.com/sports/football/release.asp?RELEASE_ID=9235


GL

 

[Clem D]

Good luck should be a good one.

 

[buddy]

Lost,

I think this game may be a little closer than what I first projected, but I'm not backing off my MARSHALL play.

Gman made a good point about the Redhawks being up 33-7 with 13 min. to go. In addition, the Redhawks piled up 414 yards of total offense, while the Miami defense held Ohio to just nine rushing yards on 34 attempts.

Kudos to the Redhawks for showing an ability to recoup after two rather pathetic performances.

But I believe HC Pruitt will be up to the task.

 

[lostinamerica]

buddy: My capping is all my own, and it starts with the notion that anything can happen and has probably already happened before. Going from there, INFORMATION and ANGLES are the basis of my plays, and of value to me in that process is either accepting or challenging the plays and opinions of other cappers that to some degree always fall on both sides of any contest. In this case, I borrowed your words really just because they were a convenient point for tossing out my take on the game. However, one reason why that was probably not such a great idea is because my first two responses to the revenge angle are "so, yeah" and "has something changed?", while the possible infusion of true "payback" can get my attention and might seem to be the operative word in this spot. And it was even a worse move if the quote carried the impression to ANYONE that buddy was playing the game and/or playing it for those precise reasons. Anyway, I trust you didn't mind too much.


California(-3 & -4) over Oregon State (0.50* & 0.75*)
- On Cal: The talk and preparation for USC has been building for some time and surely had some presence with the Cal players and coaches during their long layoff, and a lack of focus in spots during the ebbs and tides of a grueling and emotional weekly campaign is such a given that even a proactive approach to keep it from appearing will not be entirely successful, but in this spot I find both obvious and subtle reasons for Cal to be anxious to engage in this matchup and ready to be productive. http://calbears.collegesports.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/092804aab.html . . . The clinching angle (among many supporting angles) posted in my wager on Cal in their opener against Air Force was "I like Cal under Tedford for a lot of reasons in a lot of spots, but months to prepare is as good a reason as any in this one"; although the staff and players confront the prep time aspects of this layoff under a clearly distinguishable set set of circumstances, I am thinking that the right buttons are mostly being pushed with this team . . . I'm further willing to back Cal here as having the energy, confidence and leadership to play strong through spots of potential rust.
- On OSU: I'll concede that OSU was in a tough spot when they were shredded by mighty Boise. But the totality of the season certainly doesn't create an image with me that has me expecting a TRULY jacked and loose squad facing off against Cal, and I certainly see weapons and matchups for Cal to test the hypothesis of whether OSU is somewhat of a flawed team at this given moment . . . Or not.
http://www.oregonlive.com/beaversfootball/oregonian/index.ssf?/base/sports/1096286111262510.xml
http://www.oregonlive.com/beaversfootball/oregonian/index.ssf?/base/sports/1096286174262510.xml
- Closing: In trying to profit from wagers on this game, tonight I'm passing on trying to middle with some money on the OSU(+7) that is available, but I would add a little to Cal(-4) if it was still on offer. And I expect I'll stick to my guns and include Cal(-7) or thereabouts as a selection in the MJ Bestline contest.


GL

 

[lostinamerica]

Connecticut(-6) over Pittsburgh (1.50*)
Connecticut is a nice club, still making strides, somewhat better than last year in my book (especially on defense), but nothing special. I thought it was asking too much for UConn to emerge at the expense of BC two weeks ago, but I thought they acquitted themselves well in a game that was much closer than the 7-27 score. Learning a few lessons about playing games on a bigger stage, and absorbing some disappointment in the process, is a recipe for growth and maturity for teams on the rise, and under the lights of the home stadium on Thursday night is a much more inviting opportunity for sowing seeds on fertile ground . . . Signs of trouble have been on display at Pitt since the Toledo game last year (and even before that), and last year wasn't over before I started retracting most of the nice things I had said in the past about Walt Harris teams in big games, especially as an underdog. A young team that looks messed up will have to grow up quick on the road in this spot, and I don't see it.


Fresno State(-13') over Louisiana Tech (1.50*)
The best played game I've seen all year was the mauling Fresno State gave to Kansas State. You can break down the Bulldog's season and their opponents any way you want, but they are for real. I circled this game as the next spot in which Fresno would earn my money, and nothing has surprised since.


PARLAY Conn(-6) w/ Cal(-4) w/ FresnoSt(-13') for 0.50* @ 7/1


GL

 

[gman2]

lostinamerica:

just wanted to say i think you do a great job with your threads. maybe i somehow overlook them on the college weekends, but do you post for college each weekend (or have you in the past)? whenever i do see your posts, theyre always filled with a ton of good info and perspective. so keep up the good work (even though we differ on this mac game)

 

[lostinamerica]

gman: I always post my football plays, but the timing and extent of my writeups really depends. I don't much care for the NFL card this week (that's putting it mildly), but I had strong opinions on a number of college games, so the early wagers and substantial writeups came a lot easier. But the fact is that at least 60% of my full unit plays are made on gameday, although even then I'll try to contribute a nugget of something to offer a glimpse at what I'm thinking . . . I expect to break even at this absorbing pastime, but I never expect to crank out winners at a pace of the best cappers at Madjacks. I do my homework, and trust my capping and intelligence enough to believe that here and their I can assist good people in thinking about a specific wager and some wagers down the road in a worthy, different and/or profitable way . . . Other than that, I love football (and golf) and I love to mix my metaphors. And I always look to learn something from your many insightful takes. GL

Oregon(-2') over Arizona State (1.5*)
I thought the momentum from the Iowa game was a good thing, and cashed a play on ASU last week. Now an emerging team takes to the road in search a a third BIG effort in a row against quality opposition, which I think is a textbook example of a bad spot for ASU, and Oregon is the beneficiary. (Is there just a chance for ASU to double (or worse) the two turnovers lost to date during the entire season? What odds can I get?) Maybe ASU is just too good and that makes this wager a loser, but the $64,000 question in my capping is whether Oregon arrives with matchups and/or circumstances that favor taking advantage of the purported bad situation (or going further if need be, a chance of going toe to toe if ASU instead rolls out an impeccable effort). First, Oregon offers a coach and program that has proven itself a bit. I'll assume ASU has been a focus of their recent preparation. I think there are signs this Ducks team can get through some growing pains and take it up a notch in the conference opener. And there is the chestnut involving unranked teams favored over a ranked team. It's a play for me.

Illinois(+15' & +15) over Wisconsin (1* and 0.50*(-115))
- For Starters: A puppy!!!! I'm fairly shaky (but improving) with totals, but dogs or chalk don't carry any big "gotta have" or "gotta avoid" distinction with me - it's what ANGLES am I playing, what INFORMATION do I have for support, and is there decent value in the available line to pull the trigger.
- Goofy Talk: The play is more or less 62.8% on Illinois and 37.2% against Wisconsin, but exactly 100% a confluence of both elements.
- Re Illinois: Outstanding play on the field last week snapped an 11 game ATS slide. To support the belief that performance represents the immediate direction rather than an abberration, the best I found comes from the quotes after the game: http://fightingillini.collegesports.com/sports/m-footbl/recaps/092504aae.html
- On Wisconsin: The battering ram defense (with the complementary Big Ten offense) of Wisconsin has yet to be worked and wrinkled by a team with anything approaching some level of diversity and potential, much less potentcy and (here's a concept) actual scoring. In asking whether Illinois (especially the veterans along the OL) has the right stuff to make anything happen in that regard, we'll see how much my thinking is misplaced in banking on a sizeable PennState (Big Ten Opener) / Ohio State sandwich.

GL

 

[lostinamerica]

My remaining leans feature Arkansas(+7'), Minnesota(-14), Kansas(+13), Utah(-10), Toledo(-16), Michigan State(+8),
Boise(-37') and BYU(+3). I have s-m-a-l-l plays on all of them, but none merit plays at the level of the posted plays. The one lean that I chose to bump to a full unit play was:

Missouri(-7)(-108) over Colorado (1*)
To this point Colorado has circled the wagons and been living close to the edge, while Missouri has shown evidence of their high expectations while suffering a nagging setback. With an active and superior defense, and QB Brad Smith given this opportunity to put his stamp on this team and this season in what is essentially a now or never spotlight moment, I see it as more likely than not that the Tigers are up to the task.

GL