wednesday totals

[loophole]

sorry 1-3-1 last night, three losses not close. now 56-41 overall. haven't fared very well in this week's series, 5-7-3, just seem to be out of sync. hopefully things will pick up so to avoid first losing week since beginning to post totals. see one early play:

det/bal over 8: got this game @8 around noon today and see now that it has moved to 8- in some places, which i would still play. no apparent reason for low numder for this game other than the tigers' sterling average of 1.5 rpg against lefties on the road. but the tigers have got to be on a bit of a high with the win streak, and their bats seem to be responding accordingly. they will have to do some scoring today if they want to compete with knotts on the mound along with his 5.85 career road era. daal's era this year a mediocre 5.05 and career era of 5.25 in day games. steady wind around 10 mph out to left. hp ump wendelstedt helping overs so far this year - .285 ba, 5.27 era, 1.514 whip, 7 wpg in 8 games called.



back later.

 

[DJTranks]

I was on this myslef, looks good to go OVER!!

TOR TEX again???

 

[loophole]

thanks dj; i'm kinda superstitious talking about games in progress, so i'll hold off commenting on the det/bal game. going into the bottom of the 6th in the bos/kc game today, i bet those playing under 10- felt pretty good, then - BAM - 10 runs in one inning of play. it's a funny game.


now, about the tex/tor over today. got the afternoon off so i've been kicking things around. the question in this game is whether hp ump kulpa relatively large strike zone can hold these two teams under the obscenely high total of 12 tonight. to me, the answer is no. believe it or not, these two teams have combined for 167 runs in their last 11 meetings; that's over 15 rpg. to boot, you've got two starters tonight with some really bad situational stats. sturtze has a 7.96 career era vs texas, and amazingly has a 9.19 era over 31 innings pitched @ arlington. young benoit has a 7.06 era over 43.1 innings @ arlington. those are some scary numbers over that many innings.

benoit has loads of talent and potential, but seems to me to get rattled in the clutch. this guy has a career era close to 6 with a 1.73 whip, but has a career baa of .226! that's more than just control issues. this year has been no different. in his lone start vs cle, he goes 5.1 innings, strikes out 6, walks one, allows three hits, cle hits .150 against him. trouble is, 2 of those 3 hits are dingers, and just like that he gives up 4 earned runs.

neither team, esp tor, is in good shape in the bp. the so-called wind tunnel effect @ arlington is on tonight with a 19 mph wind blowing in from right field. allin all, i'll bite the bullet on the big number and make the play:


tor/tex over 12


back with the rest in a bit.

 

[Bettinman]

TX

TX

I think Drese is going for Texas tonight.

 

[ajoytoy]

wtg loop

toy

 

[DJTranks]

Ok we got the OVER on Balt, Tor OVER looks good, got to cap some others!!

 

[DJTranks]

Heres what I like

Tor - OVER

Col - OVER

Cinci - OVER

let me know what you think!

DJ

 

[loophole]

bettinman, oly still has benoit up as the starter. someone let me know if this is not the case.

here's the rest for tonight:

sf/fla under 8: tonight's only under play again. moss and beckett two yound studs. moss 2.21 era this year, beckett 3.63. moss 4.01 era vs fla, beckett 3.00 vs sf, but here's the numbers that got me - moss .149 baa in 24 innings vs fla: beckett .122 baa in 12 innings vs sf.

nyy/sea over 7: yanks 14-3 over on the road, averaging 8.2 rpg vs righties. both these starters are lights out so far this year, but with timmons behind the plate even these guys should be pitching a lot behind in the count, which should be enough to top a small number like this.

cle/ana over 9: carlson a great over ump thus far this year. anaheim over 11 0f 16 @ edison thus far and averaging 5.4 rpg vs righties. anderson 5.25 lifetime vs angels. lackey has good career numbers vs cle, but whopping 7.23 era this year. his problem has been control and pitching from behind, and has issued 19 walks in 37.1 innings. this does not bode well with carlson behind the plate, and if i'm gonna get close to 2-1 on the indians, i'll probably give them a go also.


i was considering cws/oak under, but an interesting career stat on loaiza got me off that play and probably making a play on oakland. loaiza has been nails so far this season, and interestingly enough has a 2.85 career era in april but a 6.09 career era in may. esteban mowed everyone down in five starts in april, but in his last start at home vs seattle - 5 earned runs in 3.2 innings. hmmmmmm.


overs still seem to be predominating. does it seem to anyone that the umps have shrunk the strike zone a bit this year? are they miffed about the strike zone directives from the league last year and their instructions to shorten games? or maybe backlashing against the new electronic strike-zone-police equipment the league has installed to look over their shoulders? who knows?

 

[Bettinman]

Loop

Loop

I see Benoit everywhere as well. Local radio said Drese, but maybe they made a mistake.

 

[grooven]

ditto on Benoit all the places i check list him:shrug:

 

[greed]

Strike zone

Strike zone

Umpires are no longer giving the wide strike zone so in essence the strike zone has gotten smaller. It has hurt pitchers like Maddux, Glavine, and Burkett. Also with so many injured and in effective closers the over totals have risen.

 

[Barry Chow]

thanks for the info i asked for earlier.

GL tonight!
Barry Chow