Wednesday

Nickelback

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You know, something that is really ticking me off lately and its gonna come to an end now:

I've been taking some home dogs lately that will fight hard the first half only to take it up the ass the second and completely blow any chance at a cover. Take A&M tonight, NC State against Duke a few nights ago, etc. That's why I took Florida State +4 first half over Wake and I'm glad I did cause that overtime would have driven me over the edge with these capable home dogs.

So lets take Miami vs. Duke on Wednesday. . . everyone knows Duke has had their share of troubles when visiting the Florida schools. Normally the public is all over Duke yet I see Miami at a 70% clip (will probably drop but not much). I have this feeling that Miami comes out and plays inspired basketball in the first half. . . maybe even wins the first outright. But Duke will own the second half and I expect them to cover.

Seems like most of the home dogs that I have won the past few years come out strong the first half and just hold on the second. Rarely have road favorites covered the first half against me only for my home dog to come back and get the cover. So maybe you've figured out my play:

Miami +4.5 (hoping to get 5) over Duke first half. Then I'll check out the stats at the half and see if Duke is a good bet for the second half. If I lose the first half then a definite no play for the second.

More to come. . . this is only an average wager. There will be a few big bets
 

gman2

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im not quite sure why, but im looking forward to watching this miami/duke game more than any game thats been on espn for the last month. great opportunity for the canes to make a name for themselves in the acc. i think you might be right with the approach too. miami 1st half, but lay off the 2h (or maybe duke if the # is fair). looking forward to the rest. nice play on the pittsburgh 2h under. that one jumped off the page at me too and glad we nailed that one with ease.
 

lenniethelock

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i know exactly what you meen,had both ncst the other night and tex am tonight both on teasers and neither could cover those.so yea i like your aproach on the canes.and feel the same on va. tech,think they will really come to play. gl
 

vyrus858

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best of luck Nickel...im liking the canes too, might hop on board in the first half as I think they will come out firing with Ruiz and co.
 

Nickelback

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Thanks for the support guys. . .here's my big bet for the day:

LSU -3 over Arkansas Very Big

Of all the home teams I could play, LSU is by far my favorite as a dog or favorite. I've said this before, but lets review: Arizona has gone east to take on this team on the Tigers own floor and got sent home with a loss nearly every time (I think they may have taken a game once but I know they lost once when they were #1 and on other occasions). The Tigers are simply a different team when they play at home and I don't think Vegas every really compensates for it completely. That or the public never fully takes advantage of it which is evident in my opinion when a slight majority is on Arkansas right now based on the numbers that I see.
 

Nickelback

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West Virginia -3 over Notre Dame above average

Take a look at everything for this game and ask yourself why the hell WVU is even favored. Notre Dame has won the last 10+ matchups between the schools, WVU has dropped three of their last four including one to Marshall at home. There has to be a reason why the Mountaineers are the favorite and it isn't to blindside the public as Notre Dame will most likely get a majority of the action on this one.
 

BASON

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Nice theory on the home underdogs. but I think Miami wins this game outright. I think all the big dogs in the ACC are getting too much respect right now. Playing on the road in the ACC is no picnic, I do not care how good a team is. UNC is laying too much to Clemson tonight also.

Duke is overrated and the fourth best team in the ACC, they lose tonight.
 

Nickelback

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Bason, you may be right about Miami winning straight up but I definitely do not see it unless they get off to a good start. I do agree that Duke is overrated and a very soft #4 team. . . they are due to lose!
 

vyrus858

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Nickel, very big play for you huh? I guess im on board lets get this one...ive been tailing quite a bit lately as I seem to be getting nowhere further than 50% of my own picks
 

Nickelback

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Yeah vyrus definitely a big play. . . its gone down a point but no big deal IMO. . . really like them in this spot. Gl!
 

BASON

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Looks like a bad call by me on Miami, have to say Duke has played an excellent game.

Had Va Tech and still have Clemson. Love ACC home dogs.

Pulling for LSU to pull this out!
 

Nickelback

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Well hopefully many of you got LSU with some better value. . . I'm not gonna lie, I took them at 3 so got the push but I did put a little on the first half line which LSU barely came through on. A losing night overall but not a terrible night
 
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