Peach Bowl
tcu (-3.5) 3 units. I think you have questions about motivation on both sides in this game. obviously tcu got fucked by the way the process played out. they can either be really disappointed to be in this game or really pissed off and ready to take it out on the rebels. but let's not forget ole miss. in mid-October, they were #3 in the country. at that point, I doubt they were dreaming of the peach bowl. so i'll call that a wash, with a possible edge to tcu.
the main reason I like tcu is the matchup between their defense and bo wallace. this defense doesn't get a lot of recognition, but they're pretty solid. and I have to bet against bo wallace away from home against a good defense. here's bo's splits:
home: 15 TDs 5 INTs
away: 3 TDs 3 INTs
neutral: 4 TDs 3 INTs
let's break it down a little more, keeping in mind that I put a lot of emphasis in bowl games in how a team performed away from home.
the neutral site game was the season opener against boise, and this was not a vintage boise defense this year. they ranked 63rd in scoring defense (but they were 4th in the country with 20 INTs).
their first 2 road games were at vandy and texas a&m. bo was solid against 2 porous defenses, completing 36 of 49 passes for 498 yards, 2 TDs and 0 INTs.
their last 2 road games were against better defenses, lsu (#6 in scoring defense) & Arkansas (#9 in scoring defense), although neither of those teams were particularly adept at picking off passes. bo's numbers in those games: 30 of 64 for 411 yards, 1 TD and 3 INTs.
tcu's defense is 18th in points allowed and they are 3rd in the country with 23 INTs.
it looks like it may be a long, long day for bo wallace.
of course, none of that matters if ole miss can establish a ground game and take some pressure off bo. well, tcu only allows 2.98 yards/carry, which is 5th in the country.
I really think tcu can force wallace to beat them, and that's going to lead to them picking off a couple passes.
ok, on the other side of the ball...
obviously we have a matchup of a very good defense against a very good offense. I happen to think boykin is a little overrated. he's not the most accurate passer nor a great decision maker. and ole miss picked off 19 passes this year, so they may get a couple of their own today. but I think tcu's offense is very balanced and overall a lot better than the ole miss offense. they should be able to score enough points to get a solid win.
under (56) 2 units. not much I can add here. I think tcu is going to be slowed down by the best defense they've seen this year (by far). and I don't see ole miss moving the ball with any consistency whatsoever.
tcu (-3.5) 3 units. I think you have questions about motivation on both sides in this game. obviously tcu got fucked by the way the process played out. they can either be really disappointed to be in this game or really pissed off and ready to take it out on the rebels. but let's not forget ole miss. in mid-October, they were #3 in the country. at that point, I doubt they were dreaming of the peach bowl. so i'll call that a wash, with a possible edge to tcu.
the main reason I like tcu is the matchup between their defense and bo wallace. this defense doesn't get a lot of recognition, but they're pretty solid. and I have to bet against bo wallace away from home against a good defense. here's bo's splits:
home: 15 TDs 5 INTs
away: 3 TDs 3 INTs
neutral: 4 TDs 3 INTs
let's break it down a little more, keeping in mind that I put a lot of emphasis in bowl games in how a team performed away from home.
the neutral site game was the season opener against boise, and this was not a vintage boise defense this year. they ranked 63rd in scoring defense (but they were 4th in the country with 20 INTs).
their first 2 road games were at vandy and texas a&m. bo was solid against 2 porous defenses, completing 36 of 49 passes for 498 yards, 2 TDs and 0 INTs.
their last 2 road games were against better defenses, lsu (#6 in scoring defense) & Arkansas (#9 in scoring defense), although neither of those teams were particularly adept at picking off passes. bo's numbers in those games: 30 of 64 for 411 yards, 1 TD and 3 INTs.
tcu's defense is 18th in points allowed and they are 3rd in the country with 23 INTs.
it looks like it may be a long, long day for bo wallace.
of course, none of that matters if ole miss can establish a ground game and take some pressure off bo. well, tcu only allows 2.98 yards/carry, which is 5th in the country.
I really think tcu can force wallace to beat them, and that's going to lead to them picking off a couple passes.
ok, on the other side of the ball...
obviously we have a matchup of a very good defense against a very good offense. I happen to think boykin is a little overrated. he's not the most accurate passer nor a great decision maker. and ole miss picked off 19 passes this year, so they may get a couple of their own today. but I think tcu's offense is very balanced and overall a lot better than the ole miss offense. they should be able to score enough points to get a solid win.
under (56) 2 units. not much I can add here. I think tcu is going to be slowed down by the best defense they've seen this year (by far). and I don't see ole miss moving the ball with any consistency whatsoever.
