Wednesday

[Smitty]

merry christmas to all!

not sure if i'll be around early tomorrow, so i'm getting a jump on the games.

Cotton Bowl, sorry, Servpro First Responder Bowl from the Cotton Bowl

BC (ML) 4 units to win 4.4. ok, this is mostly a hunch play. but it's a strong hunch. in no small part because the line seems to be begging for boise money. and from what i've seen, this is not a vintage boise team. they are vulnerable in the passing game, giving up 7.9 yards/attempt (99th in the country). brown has been inconsistent, but i think he can have some success in this game. on the other side of the ball, bc will be able to pressure rypien. he has taken 32 sacks this year. bc is 26th in the country with 2.75 sacks/game.

when you're expecting a close game, you gotta look at the kickers. and while bc still hasn't figured out how to recruit a kicker (they have attempted 9 fgs all year. seriously.), boise's kicker has made only 12 of 20. so that's pretty much a wash.

one other factor - there could be some nasty weather in dallas tomorrow. as of now, the best chance for strong storms is later in the afternoon. but if that weather rolls in earlier, bc gets 53% of their yards through the air, boise 64%. so strong winds may have a greater impact on boise.

 

[bosbabiesarm]

Smitty my initial thought on this game was the under and now that you?re saying there?s going to be bad weather I like it even more not vary trained on either side but the under looks really good to me what do you think.:shrug:

 

[Smitty]

Smitty my initial thought on this game was the under and now that you?re saying there?s going to be bad weather I like it even more not vary trained on either side but the under looks really good to me what do you think.:shrug:

yeah, at first i liked the under, but it feels almost "too logical". kinda like the uab/northern ill under. and after seeing the numbers of boise's pass defense, i think there's going to be more than a handful of big plays. of course, if the wind really picks up, that may negate that. so, at least for now, i decided to stay off the total. gun to my head, yeah, i'd still be on the under.

 

[Smitty]

Quick Lane Bowl

Quick Lane Bowl

georgia tech (-5.5) 3 units
over (56.5) 3 units. ok, that's more than i really wanted on this game. in fact, i was leaning minnesota for a while. but once i started digging into the numbers, i have to play georgia tech. the number that really jumped out at me was minnesota's run defense. they give up 5.22 yards/carry. only 11 teams are worse. hard to believe they're going to get that fixed in a few weeks. also, if i'm not mistaken, it's paul johnson's last game. assuming the players actually like him, that is some added motivation to play well.

i do like minnesota to be able to put up some points themselves. before morgan took over as the starting qb, the gophers averaged 22 points per game against teams not named new mexico st. with morgan starting, they averaged 32 points per game.

let's go ahead and call the final.... GT 40-24.

 

[#cruncher]

I always enjoy your write ups Smitty and will especially be interested in the Penn St/Ky game, if you have one. The only issue I've had with Kentucky this year is their occasional play calling (Offensive); it's been way to conservative at times; and going up against a play caller & head man (like James Franklin) will be a huge challenge. The OC's for Kentucky seem to call plays 'not to lose', rather than 'to win", and it usually resulted in a loss, or a close win that shouldn't have been close. I say OC's, unless Stoops has them handcuffed of course. Most of this happened when Ky was a favorite, as an underdog they seemed to call a pretty good game most of the time. Do you think Penn St will be adequately fired up for the game; I understand they probably had higher aspirations, and rightfully so. I know it's going to be real hard to out coach James Franklin.

 

[Smitty]

Cheez-it Bowl (seriously?)

Cheez-it Bowl (seriously?)

have they just stopped trying with the names of these bowls?

california (-1) 2 units
under (38.5) 2 units. mostly a gut play. huge motivational edge to the bears. tcu went right into the shitter after the ohio st game. they are now down to their third string qb. how bad is he? he's a 5th year senior who never threw a pass in a game before this year. in the two games he played at the end of the year, he didn't throw an INT. but cal was tied for 8th in the country with 17 INTs. i like their chances of picking off mr. muehlstein.

cal's offense is also pretty bad. i think cal wins 17-13 in 4 OT.

 

[Smitty]

I always enjoy your write ups Smitty and will especially be interested in the Penn St/Ky game, if you have one. The only issue I've had with Kentucky this year is their occasional play calling (Offensive); it's been way to conservative at times; and going up against a play caller & head man (like James Franklin) will be a huge challenge. The OC's for Kentucky seem to call plays 'not to lose', rather than 'to win", and it usually resulted in a loss, or a close win that shouldn't have been close. I say OC's, unless Stoops has them handcuffed of course. Most of this happened when Ky was a favorite, as an underdog they seemed to call a pretty good game most of the time. Do you think Penn St will be adequately fired up for the game; I understand they probably had higher aspirations, and rightfully so. I know it's going to be real hard to out coach James Franklin.

obviously a lot can change in the next week, and i usually suck ass on new years day bowls, but here's what i'm thinking now....

snell is still playing, right? that's huge for UK. i like the wildcats. for one thing, as you mentioned, they're going to be a lot more excited for the citrus bowl than the nits will be. and take a look at their schedules. psu beat one ranked team all year. in 3 games overall against ranked teams, mcsorley completed 46% of his passes with 3 TDs and 2 INTs. UK was 2-1 against ranked teams, with the loss against georgia. no shame there.

it's going to be brutal to watch, because uk just wins ugly. and, yeah, it's always tough betting on any stoops in a bowl game. but i think the uk defense is going to be the difference.

 

[#cruncher]

obviously a lot can change in the next week, and i usually suck ass on new years day bowls, but here's what i'm thinking now....

snell is still playing, right? that's huge for UK. i like the wildcats. for one thing, as you mentioned, they're going to be a lot more excited for the citrus bowl than the nits will be. and take a look at their schedules. psu beat one ranked team all year. in 3 games overall against ranked teams, mcsorley completed 46% of his passes with 3 TDs and 2 INTs. UK was 2-1 against ranked teams, with the loss against georgia. no shame there.

it's going to be brutal to watch, because uk just wins ugly. and, yeah, it's always tough betting on any stoops in a bowl game. but i think the uk defense is going to be the difference.

Thanks Smitty!

 

[Smitty]

minnesota 2H (+3) 5 units. gonna try to get most of my money back on this game. not sure if it's lack of interest on gt's part or minnesota got some great coaching over the last few weeks, but gt can't get the option going and that's their only hope.

the really funny thing to me... normally rule #1 of stopping the option is stopping the fb dive. but that's been just about gt's only successful play so far. if their coaching staff was paying attention, they'll tell marshall to hand off to the fb a few times until the gophers respect it.

 

[Spalding]

minnesota 2H (+3) 5 units. gonna try to get most of my money back on this game. not sure if it's lack of interest on gt's part or minnesota got some great coaching over the last few weeks, but gt can't get the option going and that's their only hope.

the really funny thing to me... normally rule #1 of stopping the option is stopping the fb dive. but that's been just about gt's only successful play so far. if their coaching staff was paying attention, they'll tell marshall to hand off to the fb a few times until the gophers respect it.

Minnesota is more than likely giving the GT QB dive reads. Let them hand off to the fullback all game, not going to beat you.

 

[ET4646]

Wtf is wrong with the GT punter?

 

[Smitty]

Minnesota is more than likely giving the GT QB dive reads. Let them hand off to the fullback all game, not going to beat you.

yeah, that must have been their plan. although they tightened up on the fullback in the second half. along with the rest of that gt "offense."

 

[Smitty]

Wtf is wrong with the GT punter?

that was ridiculous. i thought for sure their regular punter was hurt and they grabbed this guy to punt today. but HE'S THEIR REGULAR PUNTER!! it's his second year. and he actually had a solid year, averaging over 44 yards/punt. maybe he spent a little too much time sampling the detroit nightlife.