Wednesday's Afternoon Action

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LOKI
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Wednesday's Afternoon Action


Most pundits thought the American League Central was the toughest division to predict at the beginning of the season and with less than a month to play, it appears we have a two-horse race. Detroit still holds a 3 ?-game lead over Minnesota but the two clubs still have to meet six times before the season ends. And right now the Twins are one of the hottest teams in the majors.
Ron Gardenhire?s club has gone 11-3 in the last 14 games and will look to sweep the White Sox at the Metrodome this afternoon. Last night, Minnesota escaped with a 4-3 triumph when Joe Morales hit a walkoff single in the ninth inning. The setback was the White Sox?s sixth straight at Minnesota and seventh of the season. Chicago has dropped eight of nine on its current 11-game road trek and it seems like the white flag is up, even though manager Ozzie Guillen has denied that notion. Chicago recently traded Jim Thome to the Dodgers and Jose Contreras to the Rockies on Monday.



The White Sox will have Mark Buehrle (11-7, 3.89 ERA) on the hill today, but unfortunately he hasn?t been good since his perfect game against the Rays on July 23. Since then, he?s 0-4 with a 5.77 ERA in seven starts, and that includes giving up five runs to the Twins five days after the monumental feat. He does own a 23-15 lifetime mark against Minnesota, but is just 0-2 at the Metrodome in 2009. The Twins own an amazing 16-9 (64%) record against southpaws at home this year, however only two of those wins were in the daytime.

Minnesota will lean to rookie Brian Duensing (2-1, 4.37 ERA), who is 2-0 as a starter this year. Duensing is coming off an impressive performance against the Rangers, where he pitched seven innings and give up three hits and one run.

After this game, the Twins have a favorable schedule on deck. The next 13 games are Cleveland (6), Toronto (4) and Oakland (3). Is it time to hop on the boat or get off?

Gamblers have four other games on tap this afternoon and while none of the matchups are worth attending or probably even watching, you can bet on them and that?s probably the reason you?re reading this.

Let?s break ?em down!

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (12:35 p.m.) ? Break up the Reds! Cincinnati is another club finishing strong despite its position and gamblers have been catching great value. Dusty Baker?s squad will try to complete a four-game sweep against the Pirates on Thursday. Including last night?s win, Cincy has won eight of its last 10 and the two losses came to the NL?s best, Los Angeles. Homer Bailey (4-4, 6.04 ERA) will try to be the broom master today for the Reds, who are hoping he has a repeat performance of his last start when he tossed eight scoreless innings against the aforementioned Dodgers last Friday. He?s now won two in a row and his only daytime start this year produced a win. The Pirates? Zach Duke will try to cool off the Reds, but lately he hasn?t had any luck. The Bucs are 2-8 in his last 10 starts and the only two victories came when the team posted 10 and 12 runs. In the other eight, the team combined for 18. He does own a 3-3 record and 3.32 ERA in seven career starts against Cincinnati. Plus, the Reds are just 6-13 at home versus lefties this year.

Houston at Chicago (2:20 p.m.) ? Another NL Central battle on the diamond today happens from Wrigley Field, where the Cubs? Ted Lilly (9-8, 3.35 ERA) looks to stay hot at home against Houston. Chicago has won nine of his 10 starts at home this season and his ERA is an eye-opening 1.92. Did we mention that he owns a 6-1 career mark (2.84 ERA) against the Astros with three of the wins coming this year? Lilly is half the reason Chicago is a healthy favorite, the other half is Felipe Paulino (2-6, 6.96 ERA). He was just recalled from the minors in mid-August and his seen nothing but bullpen work in his return. In his last start on Aug. 4, Paulino gave up five runs and nine hits in 4 1-3 innings during an 8-1 loss to the Giants. The Cubs have seen him earlier in the year and they ripped him for four runs and five hits in less than an inning. Total players should note that the ?under? has gone 8-2 in Lilly?s 10 starts at Wrigley Field.

Kansas City at Oakland (3:35 p.m.) ? a great late-season trend on the Royals to me and it fits this afternoon. Kansas City is 1-13 in its last 14 games after it wins, with the last set of back-to-back victories coming on July 27-28. In case you don?t know, KC edged Oakland 4-3 last night and now faces the daunting task of winning again. Will they or won?t they? The A?s toss Trevor Cahill on the mound and he?s been nasty of late, giving up just four runs and 13 hits in the last 20 innings. The club is 3-0 during this stretch. He has been roughed at home (5-7) a tad and his afternoon record (2-4) is nothing to brag about either, but he has beaten the Royals in his only career start. KC hands the pill to Brian Bannister, who has been given up four runs or more in each of his last five. The Royals have dropped five in a row with him on the mound and eight of 10. Even though the ?under? cashed in Tuesday?s affair, the previous six encounters between the two teams went ?over? the number.

Washington at San Diego (3:35 p.m.) ? If you follow the Nationals this year, then you know how up and down the offense is. Right now, it?s down and near the bottom too. San Diego held Washington in check for the second straight night, claiming a 4-1 home victory. The Nats have scored nine runs in the last five games, which has resulted in a 0-5 record. The Padres still sit in the cellar of the NL West but the club has won six of eight and after last night?s win, and they secured their third straight series win too. John Lannan will try to help the team avoid the sweep this afternoon. It?s tough to label Lannan the as the Nats? ace, but he?s been the best on a club with just 46 wins. Unfortunately, he?s been tattooed on the road (3-8, 5.57 ERA) this season. The Padres are only 20-24 versus southpaws this year, yet they have gone 4-2 (67%) in home day games against lefties. San Diego will counter with Kevin Correia, who has helped the club to a 4-1 mark in his last five starts although he?s been helped with an average of 5 runs per game durig his run. Correia hasn?t fared well in afternoon games, evidenced by his 2-3 record and 4.93 ERA. The ?under? has gone 4-1 in the five battles between the Nats and Padres this year.
 

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LOKI
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Wednesday's best MLB bets

Wednesday's best MLB bets

Wednesday's best MLB bets

Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins (-105, 8.5)

The Minnesota Twins have risen from the ashes in the American League Central to pull just 3.5 games behind the Detroit Tigers in the division.

Minnesota wrapped August with an 8-2 record in its last 10 games heading into Tuesday?s Game 2 with the White Sox. Chicago?s current funk has also helped the Twins' surge. The ChiSox have plummeted in the standing after posting an 11-17 record last month.

The biggest force pushing the Twins to within striking distance of the division title has been the team?s pitching staff. After underachieving all summer, the Minny arms posted a collective 3.17 ERA last week and made up for the lack of offense. The Twins managed to score just 20 runs on .255 hitting.

"We're playing pretty good and trying to keep it going," catcher Joe Mauer told the media. "We're worried about us winning games instead of looking at the scoreboard."

Minnesota took Game 1 4-1 Monday night and has won 20 of the past 26 meeting with the White Sox at the Metrodome heading into Tuesday.

Pick: Minnesota

Kansas City Royals at Oakland Athletics (-160, 9)

When the cat?s away the mice will play.

The Kansas Royals are hoping this age-old adage proves true with manager Trey Hillman away from the team following the death of his father in-law. Hillman left Sunday and is expected to miss all three games with the A?s this week.

Bench coach and former Toronto Blue Jays skip John Gibbons has taken the reigns in Hillman?s absence. He took one on the chin Monday, losing 8-5 in Game 1 in Oakland. That loss was Kansas City?s 81st of the season and seventh in the past 10 games heading into Tuesday.

"I've got a good idea how (Hillman) does things and what he wants to do," Gibbons told reporters. "So I'll just run with that."

Perhaps Gibbons should try doing the opposite of his superior given that the Royals are on pace for another 100-loss season and have a tough schedule facing them in the final weeks of the season.

Going to the bump for Gibbons is struggling righty Brian Bannister. He?s been roughed up in his recent outings and has just one win in his nine starts since the All-Star break.

Pick: Oakland
 

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Wednesday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers

Wednesday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers

Wednesday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers
Streaking

J.A. Happ (10-3, 2.63 ERA), Philadelphia Phillies

Do you think Phillies fans would rather have Happ or Roy Halladay right now? This young lefty was routinely the name brought up in trade discussions for the Blue Jays ace back in July. The Phils decided to keep Happ and they haven't disappointed.

Happ's continued his solide 2009 campaign with a memorable run in August. Happ finished August with a 1.67 ERA and Philly went 4-1 in those five starts. Total bettors know about the kid's value. The under is a scorching 11-0 in his last 11 appearances.




Ted Lilly (9-8, 3.35), Chicago Cubs

This lefty has pitched great over his last three starts, but his slumping teammates have given him little support. Lilly has allowed just four earned runs and 3 in his last 19 1-3 innings. The under has cashed in each of those three outings

September has proved to be a good time to back the 33-year-old California native. Lilly went 4-1 with a 3.30 ERA last September and 2-1 with a 3.48 ERA the year before.

Slumping

Brian Bannister (7-11, 4.60), Kansas City Royals

You?re rolling the dice anytime you decide to back this streaky starter. Of course with the way he?s pitching and the way his team?s playing right now, the odds are stacked against Bannister bettors.

The righty hurler saw his ERA grow after a forgettable August. The Royals went 1-5 in his five starts and 2-4 on the runline.

He?s delivered quality starts in only two of his last nine trips to the mound. The over is 3-0 in his last three starts as well.

David Bush (3-5, 5.88), Milwaukee Brewers

Bush looked good in his first start since coming off a two-month stint on the DL last week. But he lost control of the game in the fifth inning when it looked like he ran out of gas.

?It?s frustrating, disappointing, whatever you want to say,? the righty said after getting charged with five runs in the 8-5 loss.

If you like the price of the Brewers today against Carpenter-led Cardinals, you might want to play the first five innings instead. Bush doesn?t look like his stamina is up to par yet after the long layoff
 

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LOKI
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Best over bets since the All-Star break

Best over bets since the All-Star break

Best over bets since the All-Star break
During the first half of the baseball season, over players took a beating.

Only a handful of teams consistently played above the total. There were about 10 teams playing at an even rate, while virtually half the league was falling below the total on a regular basis.

Since the All-Star break, however, that has changed. A couple of teams have had offensive surges and are topping the total more consistently than they were in the first half.

The team at the top of the list is still the same, though.

Let's take a look at the top five "over" teams since the All-Star break.

Oakland Athletics

This is a bit of a surprise, given that they dumped Matt Holliday on the St. Louis Cardinals. Getting rid of Jason Giambi's dormant bat may have been a plus.

The A's were well under the .500 mark at the break but are 24-18-1 over/under since, which is just under the 58 percent win rate bettors are looking for. As they repeatedly trot out inexperienced pitchers, this trend may continue.

Minnesota Twins

The Twins were nearly 10 games under .500 against the over at the break but are providing a return on investment in the second half with a 21-15-4 over record, a clip of 58 percent.

Most of Minnesota's rotation is on the disabled list and Nick Blackburn and Scott Baker have wilted under the heavy lifting. Jeff Manship debuted as a starter Tuesday, and September is certain to bring more call-ups.

Florida Marlins

The Marlins have avoided the under trend that has affected most teams, in part because their roster is filled with young players who are tough to project. Overall, they have the third-best over mark of 68-56-7 and have been in the top third of the league all season.

Since the break, Florida has taken off, clearing the total at a 25-15-1 over/under rate (62 percent). Already a bad fielding team, the Marlins had a stretch of nine consecutive overs paydays in August, fueled by a streak of 15 straight games with at least 10 hits.

It's hard to say whether the Marlins can maintain their pace. They are a tough team to decipher.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers can hit a little bit -they are 10th in homers (151) and runs (633). But their team ERA of 4.87 looks more like a field-goal percentage and ranks 27th in the league.

Since the break, the over is 25-14-1 in Milwaukee's games, a rate of nearly 64 percent, and has pushed their over record to second in the league. The Brewers have been very streaky, with four stretches of at least three over finishes in the second half.

Los Angeles Angels

The Angels have been atop the over standings virtually all season. With a 76-49-5 over/under record, they have been a solid 60 percent play to top the total for five months.

With their balance of speed and power, erratic rotation and sloppy bullpen, the Angels have been an awesome over play since the break, racking up a 29-14-1 over/under mark that includes 13 in a row in late July.

The addition of Scott Kazmir may be a mitigating factor, but he can only make six starts the rest of the way.
 
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