ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Chris Heston Is the Giants? Latest Find
by Paul Swydan - July 1, 2015
Chris Heston was listed on only two of the six major preseason prospect reports. John Sickels listed him in his ?Others? section at the end of his top-20 list, and FanGraphs? own Kiley McDaniel placed Heston 14th on his list. Kiley called him an ?inventory starter? but did allow for some potential as well. Here was his final sentence on Heston:
"Heston may be one of the small percentage of potential #5 starters that turns into more, but we?ll need to see how he performs his second time through the league."
And here?s what Sickels said:
"There is a mixture of physical upside arms and pitchability talents who could surprise, finesse right-hander Chris Heston being a good example of the latter. If you are looking for a pitcher who could pull a Matt Shoemaker-like out-of-nowhere season in 2015, Heston is as good a candidate as anyone."
Here we are, three months into the season, and Heston is indeed that candidate. If you look at the pitching WAR leaderboard right now, there are certainly surprises, but few pitchers by whom you are just completely blown away.
The Giants seem to specialize in these guys. Last year, Joe Panik didn?t make the top-10 prospect list here at FanGraphs or at Baseball Prospectus. Baseball America had him ninth; Sickels had him 13th and called him a utility player, as did Keith Law ? while noting that Matt Duffy? target=?_blank?>Matt Duffy had a similar profile heading into this season (ninth ranked at BA, #11 at FG, #13 by Sickels, Factor on the Farm at BP). We don?t need to do this for every player, but the point is that the Giants seem to have a habit of turning these guys up. George Kontos, Jean Machi, Ryan Vogelsong, Yusmeiro Petit, a resurgent Jake Peavy ? draft them, trade for them, free them, bring them back from the dead, or maybe make them in some secret fringe-pitcher lab ? the Giants find a way. Heston is just the latest.
This is not meant to diminish Heston in any way, but rather to emphasize the success he?s has relative to his pedigree. He?s already thrown a no-hitter this year, and he did it with minimal pushback from the team he faced, the New York Mets. And Heston is markedly different from most Giants pitchers in at least one way ? he gets ground balls. Yes, San Francisco now has Tim Hudson, but aside from him, the starting pitchers who have pitched most frequently for the Giants in recent years have been a fly-balling bunch, as we?ve discussed here in the past
How is he doing this without hitting 90 mph on a consistent basis? By throwing a lot of sinkers. Only two pitchers ? A.J. Burnett and Hector Santiago ? have derived more value from their sinker so far this year than has Heston, according to PITCHf/x. Only Kyle Hendricks has thrown his sinker more frequently than has Heston. Heston isn?t just a one-note guy though. He complements that sinker, which ranks seventh per 100 pitches, with an above-average curveball that ranks 34th per 100 pitches.
When you don?t throw hard, your roads to success are definitely more limited, but that doesn?t mean you can?t succeed. If you know how to locate the ball, you stand a much better chance. Judging by the very low percentage of ?grooved? pitches Heston has thrown the past two months, he has a pretty decent idea where the ball is going. He is generating lots of ground balls and infield fly balls, and keeping the ball out of the fat part of the strike zone. That approach isn?t going to work everywhere ? he has been tattooed at Coors Field for 12 runs in 11 innings ? but it?s going to work in most places, particularly given the nature of today?s strike zone.
If Heston was pitching in a different organization, you might be tempted chalk this up to luck or something unsustainable, but the Giants have a knack for turning undervalued assets into solid big leaguers. It?s how they stay relevant in most seasons, and Heston is the latest, even though his batted-ball profile doesn?t fit with most of their recent pitchers. That?s a testament to their pro scouting department. You might not have heard of Chris Heston before this season, but he?s probably going to stick around for awhile.
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Robbie Ray, LHP
This post is basically built around one fact. I looked at every pitcher who started at least one game in both 2014 and 2015. For each pitcher, I investigated any potential changes in average fastball velocity. The biggest increase belongs to Juan Nicasio, up almost five mph. But that doesn?t count ? Nicasio?s one start this year lasted two innings and 41 pitches. He started, but he was still a reliever. The next name on the list is Robbie Ray?s. His average fastball has increased nearly three ticks.
Toward the end of last season, Ray had a couple stints in the bullpen, where his velocity played up. This year that?s carried over, even though he?s being asked to throw six innings a start. His bullpen velocity boost has sustained, and now we have his fastball at 93.5 mph. For the sake of reference, we have Clayton Kershaw at 93.6. David Price at 93.8. Ray has a big-league lefty fastball now, and even though this post isn?t about him, Doug Fister is down two ticks, and he?s already been on the disabled list. Ray?s stock is going up. Fister?s stock isn?t.
It?s commonly noted that velocity isn?t everything, and that?s true, because the most important thing is putting your pitches where you want them to be. And on top of that, Ray has adjusted his breaking ball. He?s gone to a slurve with a little more depth, and his breaking-ball whiff rate has more than doubled. But there?s no getting around the fact that velocity is important. Margins of error, and all that stuff. Ray has increased his fastball usage more than 10 percentage points, and the fastball itself is getting more whiffs. So Ray has been having success, even while pitching without so many of his changeups, which were thought to be good, once upon a time.
It?s evident that the fastball is faster. And compared to last year, in the majors, Ray is getting more swings and misses. He?s getting more strikeouts, and issuing fewer walks. He?s having more success against righties. And there was progress in Triple-A, as well. Between 2014 and 2015, in Triple-A, Ray nearly doubled his strikeout rate. There were still walks ? Ray still isn?t a complete starting pitcher ? but those were offset. Ray was getting ahead more often in the minors, and he?s getting ahead more often in the majors. He?s checking off so many of the right boxes.
How do you make a starting pitcher throw harder? I don?t know what Ray has been up to. Maybe he?s changed his diet, or his workout routine. Maybe he?s made a very subtle change to his delivery.
Who knows? Ray?s thrown with a lower slot before. He?s thrown with a higher slot before. It appears like he?s gone from lower to higher to lower again. At the moment, the lower slot is working out. Ray?s having more success than he had before at the game?s highest level.
He still isn?t great yet. He?s not that close, and he might never get there. Ray has work remaining to do, and like so many other pitchers, he might never do it. But, at one point, the Tigers liked Ray?s velocity. Now he?s either rediscovered it or taken it to a new height. He?s establishing himself as a big-league pitcher, in a big-league rotation, and now it?s Doug Fister who?s dealing with his own question marks. Ray?s just busy raising his own ceiling. The point isn?t necessarily that the initial trade was good. Who?s to say what Ray was most likely to be? Who?s to say whether he would?ve found the velocity with Detroit? But that was a trade that people hated. People don?t hate trades so much anymore. They hated that one. And now look. We think we understand how players develop. We do understand ? a little bit.
:spotting: :clap: 
